Author Archives: dodgermoore

Daily Dynasty Update – August 15th

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Almost there:

Go get ’em.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 14th

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We’re halfway home folks. Make it a good one.

  • Cam Newton spent most of Carolina camp in the pocket which is fantastic news for his long-term health. Newton is a no-brainer, top three quarterback in dynasty ranks.
  • Rookie receiver Aaron Dobson has looked much better in Pats camp. Between Dobson and UDFA Kenbrell Thompkins, you can’t go wrong taking a young Patriots receiver this year.
  • San Diego rookie receiver suffered some kind of knee injury yesterday and had to receive treatment. Allen suffered knee injuries throughout his career so this shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s still disappointing as Allen had first round talent. I’d personally hold off drafting him until later.
  • Receiver Chris Givens has had an excellent camp so far in St. Louis. Tavon Austin has gotten the attention but Givens has a more definitive role in the Rams young offense. Overall, I’d go with Givens.
  • Minnesota linebacker Desmond Bishop might not even make the team. Plan accordingly.
  • Things are not going well in Jacksonville when Marcedes Lewis is complaining about the offense. Anything related to the Jacksonville offense should probably be avoided, even in dynasty circles.
  • Arizona running back Ryan Williams is undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy for his gimpy knee. Williams has yet to be fully healthy in camp, allowing rookies Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington to step up. All of them are fighting for backup duties to Rashard Mendendhall which should give you an idea of how lacking the Arizona running game is in quality. It’s best to avoid if you can.

2013 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Big Board – Round 2 (1st Edition)

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We kicked off the series looking at the potential first round of rookies drafted in dynasty leagues here. Next, we look at the next set of picks in a 12-team, PPR league.

Round 2, Pick 1 – WR-Cordarelle Patterson (MIN) – In his first NFL game, first round pick Patterson exhibited exactly what scouts were drooling over at the draft which was his play-making ability. He totaled 104 yards and had a beautiful 50-yard catch after catching the crease.  Patterson is still extremely raw but talent will win out over time in dynasty leagues. The only draw back will continue to be Christian Ponder and the quarterback situation in Minnesota. Not to mention, the current NFL MVP dominates the playbook (as he should). Patterson won’t be in a position to get big numbers early in his career but he’s got the talent to do some special things.

Round 2, Pick 2 – WR-Aaron Dobson (NE) – As with fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins, the opportunity for Aaron Dobson is the better than any other in the league. Massive turnover has opened up the opportunity for anyone to be the starting X receiver. He’s played well and is making plays in camp but he’s also getting into shoving matches and not exactly setting the world on fire in-game action. He’ll move on from that but he may not be able to beat out Thompkins for first crack. The talent is there, and the competition is bare, so Dobson is an excellent value pick in the second. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have Tom Brady lobbing passes either.

Round 2, Pick 3 – TE-Travis Kelce (KC) – The first pick of the third round, Kelce is a physical specimen at the tight end position at 6′ 5″ and 260 pounds. He’s also a great receiver and athletic and can block. His only major downfall was character concerns. He was suspended the whole 2010 season which, in this day and age of leniency, means he majorly messed up. The hope is he’s moved on since then and seemingly has since he hasn’t had any issues since. Looking at his situation, he’s got a pass-happy coach who has committed to throwing more. Alex Smith will have the first shot of getting Kelce the ball. Smith didn’t have a problem getting Vernon Davis the ball so there is hope. He’ll have to battle Anthony Fasano and Tony Moeaki for snaps but his sheer athleticism should take care of that. Kansas City does plan to line him up in a variety of positions. Giddy up.

Round 2, Pick 4 -QB-Geno Smith (NYJ) – Drafted in the second round, Smith was drafted to inject some life into the abysmal Jets offense. Originally graded to be the first quarterback taken, Smith slid to the second after several off-field issues regarding agents and attitude. But the football skills are all there and Smith looks like the real deal. With little competition ahead of him (see: Sanchez, Mark), Smith has a golden opportunity to join E.J. Manuel as the only starting rookie quarterbacks. He did trip a little leading up to his first pre-season game but turned in a solid performance. The supporting cast is a different story. With zero legitimate targets to throw to, it’s hard to imagine Smith putting up even decent numbers his first year. The hope is he takes his rookie year to sort things out and be ready to utilize whatever new targets the Jets bring in. He’s a taxi-squad candidate at this point.

Round 2, Pick 5 -WR-Robert Woods (BUF) – Second rounder Woods is already stated to start in Buffalo. Like Spider-Man, that can be a gift and curse. Woods was the most NFL-ready coming in to the draft and has impressed so far in camp. He’s a part of the renaissance in Buffalo with rookie E.J. Manuel quarterbacking. But he’ll be tied to Manuel’s growing pains which will prohibit huge numbers from any Buffalo receiver for the foreseeable future. Not huge upside but has the chance to be a steady contributor for years to come.

Round 2, Pick 6 – WR-Keenan Allen (SD) – Unlike Robert Woods, Allen is a project. Drafted in the third round, the skill is there as he set the Cal record for receptions. The injury bug also has afforded Allen the opportunity to use those skills early on. However, Allen has had an up-and-down camp so far and everyone agrees that Allen has ways to go. Originally projected as a first round pick, he’s not immune from injuries either after missing the last couple games of his college career. The path is certainly clear for Allen to take over but it’ll remain to be seen if he can stay healthy.

Round 2, Pick 7 – RB-Marcus Lattimore (SF) – The ultimate taxi squad player in dynasty drafts this year, Lattimore was a legit first round talent before shredding both knees in college. Drafted in the 4th round, neither fantasy owners or San Francisco has any hope that he’ll contribute this year as he hopes to follow in the foot steps of fellow knee-injury victims Willis McGahee and, you guessed it, Frank  Gore. He enters a delicious situation with Gore’s contract ballooning to $6.5 million in 2014 (at age 31), Kendall Hunter with just 184 carrie to his name, and LaMichael James as nothing more than a passing situation back. With San Francisco’s power running scheme, Lattimore is sure to be in the mix. Draft him and stash him.

Round 2, Pick 8 – TE-Zach Sudfeld (NE) – Another undrafted rookie for New England, Sudfeld has rapidly found himself playing with the first string unit. At 6′ 7″ and 255 pounds, he’s being compared to that other New England tight end (who’s still on the team) and could get work as the injures dictate. Jake Ballard was originally supposed to take over Aaron Hernandez’s production but that now appears to go to Sudfeld, who’s catching everything in sight. He’s a huge unknown but New England seems to trust him. Don’t be afraid to draft him in the second round and look like a genius.

Round 2, Pick 9 – RB-Johnathan Franklin (GB) – Franklin steps into an ideal situation for a pass-catching back. The Green Bay offense, and Aaron Rodgers in particular, will continue to pass the ball despite the presence of Eddie Lacy. He won’t be an every down back but if Franklin can establish himself as a passing-down back, he could be in for a bunch of catches. Of course, he’ll have to shore up his pass protection to even see the field. Assuming he can work those issues out, he’ll be an intriguing change of pace back.

Round 2, Pick 10 – WR-Stedman Bailey (STL) – While Bailey only sits at #4 on the depth chart, he’s had a good camp so far. St. Louis claims to be opening up the offense more which would mean more opportunities to spread the wealth. Of course, it remains to be seen if Sam Bradford can handle that load. If so, Bailey stands to gain in the long-term. If not, Bailey wouldn’t be worth a taxi squad spot.

Round 2, Pick 11 – QB-Tyler Bray (KC) – Signed as an undrafted free agent, Bray already has the strongest arm in Kansas City camp (which isn’t saying a whole lot). His lack of maturity was what set him back in the draft but he seems to have overcome those. Setting behind Alex Smith and Chase Daniel, Bray doesn’t have a clear shot to starters minutes but could develop into a tradable asset. He’s not a bad pick to stash on taxi squads especially with other rookie quarterbacks struggling.

Round 2, Pick 12 – WR-Kenny Stills (NO) – Drafted in the fifth round, there was not clear spot for Stills until Joe Morgan went down with an injury and smaller injuries allowed him to play with the first string. Now entrenched as the 3rd down receiver, Stills has put together a quietly good camp and could receive considerable attention from Drew Brees and co. He should man the slot between Marques Colston and Lance Moore. If Sean Payton works his magic upon his return, they’ll be plenty of targets to go around including ones to Stills.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 13th

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At least it’s not Monday?

  • The injury bug hit Jamaal Charles on Monday. He went down with a foot sprain but looks fine. The fantasy world probably won’t be comfortable until he sees game action.
  • Receiver DeSean Jackson looks like his old self in Philly camp. Currently ranked 44th in dynasty ranks, Jackson may be a tad undervalued at this point. The hope is to be a regular WR3 with a WR2 as his ceiling.
  • Second year receiver T.Y. Hilton says the game is slowing down for him. After a good pre-season opener, Hilton is in prime position to succeed this year and in the future with Andrew Luck at quarterback and Reggie Wayne close to retirement. Grab Hilton if he’s available.
  • Second year tight end Ladarius Green is looking good in San Diego. With Antonio Gates at 33, Green is in a prime position to take over the starting role but will need to have a good season.
  • Rookie tight end Gavin Escobar has been quiet so far in Dallas.  So far, he grades out as the worst blocking tight end this pre-season, according to Pro Football Focus. Not exactly a recipe for success. Escobar is no more than a taxi squad candidate at this point. He’d be even more valuable if Jason Witten is on your roster.
  • Third year receiver Jon Baldwin dropped a couple of passes during practice Sunday and has yet to stand out in Kansas City’s camp. It’s not inconceivable to imagine this might be Baldwin’s last chance to validate his first round status. Andy Reid does like to throw it around so Baldwin will have his chance.

2013 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Big Board – Round 1 (1st Edition)

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The time is (almost) here. Your dynasty fantasy football draft. Where you can finally put all your Madden Franchise mode skills to use. Unlike re-drafts, where the choices are obvious, you’re playing GM to your very own franchise. You have to take into account need, potential, opportunity and, most of all, skill. Let’s see who DFFC would take in an IDP, 12-team PPR league:

Round 1, Pick 1 – RB-Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – After finishing 26th in rushing, Pittsburgh needed an injection of talent in the running game. After long-time incumbent Rashard Mendenhall moved on Pittsburgh determined that holdovers Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are not suited for the top spot. Enter Bell. At 6′ 1″ and 230 pounds, the Michigan State product can be a punishing runner. Pittsburgh is also implementing a zone-blocking scheme along the lines of Mike Shanahan’s offenses in Denver and now Washington that will allow Bell to see the holes created by his lineman and strike where convenient. Bell is already penciled in as the starter and has a chance to become the rare rookie that contributes both now and later.

Round 1, Pick 2 – RB-Eddie Lacy (GB) – The Bruiser from ‘Bama was thought to be the top running back in the NFL draft but fell to 61 and Green Bay. With little (to no) competition, Lacy has been able to establish his starter status after some impressive practices. Becoming what New Orleans had hoped for fellow ‘Bama running back Mark Ingram appears to be the goal – someone who can convert the 3rd and 1, 1st and Goal, etc. However, there are some real concerns with Lacy’s long-term health which caused several teams to refrain from taking him in the NFL draft. Lacy’s doctors insist he’ll be ok but it’s still something to watch. If healthy, Lacy will be a fine compliment to the passing attack of Aaron Rodgers and co. He, like Bell, has a chance to be a contributor very early in his career.

Round 1, Pick 3 – RB-Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back taken in the draft, Bernard is probably the most explosive. He’s being compared to Ray Rice thanks to his short stature but big build and versatility. He’s so versatile the Bengals even have him lining out wide. Skill-wise he’s set but it’s all about opportunity. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was signed in 2012 to a three-year contract. He could aways be cut earlier but chances are they’ll let his contact run out after 2014 and block Bernard’s path to an everyday role. The hope is Green-Ellis falls flat and they turn the ball over to Bernard sooner than expected. At the moment, he’s a RB3, at best, but could be up to RB1 by the end of the season.

Round 1, Pick 4 – RB-Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted in the second round out of Wisconsin, Ball was probably the most experienced of the running back class after almost 1,000 attempts in college. He entered a high-powered offense but a crowded backfield. Knowshon Moreno has had four years to show he’s not the long-term answer but Denver will still use him sparingly. It’s Ronnie Hillman that’s blocking Ball’s path to fantasy greatness. Hillman was drafted in the 3rd round of last year’s draft and has ‘earned’ the starting spot. He’s currently the 1A to Ball’s 1B which sounds eerily familiar to Coach John Fox’s last team where the Panthers refused to favor one of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Fantasy owners don’t need to be reminded of that hot mess. It’s ok to draft Ball but don’t expect a workhorse role for at least a year.

Round 1, Pick 5 – WR – DeAndre Hopkins – In the first upset of the first round, I have Houston first round pick DeAndre Hopkins as the first receiver off the board. At 6′ 1″ and 214 pounds, Hopkins fits the mold more as a long-term receiver than Tavon Austin. Drafted by Houston, he was the immediate favorite for the ‘Z’ position and has not disappointed. He had a fantastic week of camp, including a 40-yard bomb, and has already established the trust of the coaching staff. There is no one to challenge him as the heir apparent and he’ll get the benefit of learning from one of the best (very Terrell Owens-esque). He’s already slated for at least 50 catches his rookie year with that number sure to grow. Grab him early, grab him often.

Round 1, Pick 6 – TE-Tyler Eifert (CIN) – With more NFL offenses utilizing their tight ends as receivers, expect more rookie tight ends to be drafted higher.  Tyler Eifert, drafted in the first round in 2013 is first up. Even though Cincinnati had an established tight end, and not necessarily a bad one, they still opted to draft the Notre Dame product. He’s lining up wide and catching passes in traffic which is music to dynasty fantasy owners ears. And with the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski going in the first or second rounds of drafts, Eifert could be right up there with them and soon. There’s no doubt that tight end is the position with the most disparity between first and worst. If you can grab a difference maker, you take him. Eifert could be that.

Round 1, Pick 7 – WR-Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) – Who? Exactly. Thompkins went undrafted this year and only earned a spot because of the massive upheaval in New England’s receiving corps. But boy is he making it count. Not only is a vertical threat but has shown signs of being a possession receiver as well. Of course, it always helps when you’re on the same page as Tom Brady. Brady threw the ball 637 times last year and with four of his top five receivers gone, the competition for targets is wide open. Thompkins has been the most impressive so far. Impress your friends and take him.

Round 1, Pick 8 – RB-Christine Michael (SEA) – Michael’s the first player off the board not walking into an obviously advantageous position but he could be thrown into one soon. Michael was a first round talent but fell to the second due to off-field issues. His tough, explosive running style is an ideal fit in Seattle and not that much different from incumbent Marshawn Lynch. But Lynch has his own off-field issues to deal with which could propel Michael to the starting lineup. Current backup Robert Turbin is just now getting back on the field so if Michael continues to impress, this first-round talent could be the recipient of Seattle’s powerful running game. The upside is huge.

Round 1, Pick 9 – WR-Tavon Austin (STL) – The highest receiver drafted at #8 overall, Austin is going to be a ping-pong ball and bounce all over the place. Out wide, in the slot, in the backfield. It’s just a shame he’s heading into an offense of such uncertainty. Sam Bradford is in a make-or-break year, they appear to have full-blown RBBC on their hands and there’s no skill position players coming back to estabslish some sort of consistency after the departure of Steven Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, he’s justified his draft position. But throw in the fact that Brian Schottenheimer is his OC, he of the almost 500 rush attempts last year, and the passing game is even murkier. Austin is a talent but doesn’t enter the best situation. And at this point, opportunity is half the battle.

Round 1, Pick 10 – QB-E.J. Manuel (BUF) – The first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, Manuel should also be the first quarterback off dynasty fantasy boards. Manuel is a big boy at 6′ 5″ and 230 pounds. He’s the captain of the rebuilding effort of the Buffalo franchise and should be given plenty of opportunities. Just the fact that he’ll be the starter in Buffalo at a minimum of 2-3 years props up his value since there’s only a finite number of starting quarterbacks in fantasy. His weapons are an asset as well as Buffalo has surrounded him with rookie receivers Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Da’Rick Rogers and rookie tight end Chris Gragg. Throw in all-world running back C.J. Spiller and perennial 1,000 yard receiver Stevie Johnson and Manuel has no excuses. We’ll have to wait and see him in game action to determine if he’ll be a fantasy starter in years to come but Manuel is definitely in the right place in the right time.

Round 1, Pick 11 – TE-Zach Ertz (PHI) – Drafted in the second round, Ertz looked as if he walked into a less than ideal fantasy situation. New Philly coach Chip Kelly had been a run-first coach at Oregon and there were already two tight ends in front of him. Incumbent Brent Celek and free agent James Casey. Originally, Celek would have been the in-line tight end with Casey as the ‘move.’ However, Ertz has earned first-team reps in practice and is now predicted to have more catches and yards than either of the other two Philly tight ends after impressing the team. As with Eifert and Manuel, Ertz plays a position with a finite amount of quality players. Don’t be afraid to draft Ertz.

Round 1, Pick 12 – WR-Markus Wheaton (PIT) – Drafted in the 3rd round, Wheaton is the heir apparent to the departed Mike Wallace. However, he’s also been drawing comparisons to Hines Ward. Physically, both don’t/didn’t stand out but Wheaton has shown the ability to go over the middle and catch balls in traffic (at least in camp). Then comes the good news that Wheaton is already practicing with the first team and lining up in the slot or the outside. Using Ward as a comp, I don’t think anyone would be disappointed in a guy with six 80+ receptions/1,000 yard seasons. His status may be murky this year but shouldn’t be after that.

Click here for a mock round two and be sure to follow us on twitter for your daily dynasty update!

Daily Dynasty Update – August 9th

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It’s Friday. Which means you can do nothing but dynasty cheat sheets tonight. Let’s  get it on:

  • Tom Brady is feasting. Despite the massive turnover in receivers, Brady is still as locked in as ever. He’ll drop in dynasty league drafts but sure things are hard to come by. Don’t sleep on Brady. Plus, I think they’ll have to carry Brady off the field before he retires.
  • Oakland receiver Denarius Moore has been inconsistent in camp so far. Coach Dennis Allen even went as far as to say Oakland doesn’t have that ‘go-to’ guy. Yikes.
  • 8th overall pick Tavon Austin has looked excellent in Rams camp. It still remains to be seen exactly how he’ll be used but he’s sure to be involved. Also keep in mind that former Jet OC Brian Schottenheimer is now in St. Louis. The Jets didn’t exactly fling the ball around.
  • I take back any concern I had about Zach Ertz. He’s been lining up wide, making some great catches and showing why some teams thought he was the best tight end in the draft. Initially, it wasn’t clear where Ertz would wind up behind incumbent Brent Celek and free agent James Casey but locals are predicting he leads the position in catches.
  • Keenan Allen has yet to distinguish himself as a possible replacement at receiver in San Diego. Currently a later round pick, exhibition games will be the real test. Temper your expectations accordingly.
  • Rookie receiver Marcus Wheaton is doing all the right things in Pittsburgh camp. He’s going over the middle for catches a la Hines Ward. Combine that with his speed and Wheaton is a great prospect in dynasty leagues. Draft accordingly.
  • Ryan Broyles is a go in Detroit despite sitting out practice. A two-time ACL tear victim, Broyles is extremely fragile long-term but his position as the receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL can’t be ignored. He’s worth a flyer and could be a tradeable asset down the road.
  • Maquise Goodwin has been better than advertised in his first camp in Buffalo. We looked at Goodwin in-depth. Goodwin didn’t get much action in college at Texas but his 4.27 40-time made people take notice. He’s been working in the slot at out wide and catching absolute bombs. Goodwin is one of our favorite late round flyers for your taxi squad.
  • Rookie linebacker Sio Moore is currently the starter in Oakland. He’ll be on the strong-side. Currently at 42 in dynasty linebacker rankings, he can be bumped up.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 8th

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Almost ready for the first full week of pre-season. Let’s see what we got:

 

Daily Dynasty Update – August 7th

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Let’s get it on.

  • Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman are still splitting carries with the first team in Denver.  I still don’t buy the Montee Ball hype – he’s in a RBBC and his coach is notorious for using multiple backs.
  • Mark Ingram is looking good in New Orleans. He’s done nothing in his career to unseat Pierre Thomas but maybe this is the year.
  • Another breakout candidate is Michael Floyd from Arizona. He is officially the #2 receiver in the desert. With an upgrade at quarterback, the chances will be there.
  • Mychal Kendricks is poised to be a big part of the defense in Philadelphia this season. The second-year linebacker should be going at the quarterback more which is good for sacks. Kendricks is currently 18th in dynasty linebacker ranks.
  • A.J. Jenkins (finally) had a good day in camp for San Francisco. There isn’t much competition at receiver in San Francisco so the door is open.
  • Justin Blackmon is still hurt and probably won’t play on Friday for Jacksonville. So much talent, so little production.
  • Bryce Brown may fumble the #2 spot behind LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia. He dropped three passes today and the knock is his hesitancy to run between the tackles.

Remember, if you’re able to see this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Quarterback Rankings – Tier I

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When drafting or building a dynasty team, it’s not unusual to adopt the same strategy as a real NFL team – draft a franchise quarterback and build around him. Think about it – how many quarterbacks last 10 years as opposed to running backs or receivers? Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady all of whom have been around for a decade or more and are still viable fantasy options. If you can snag a franchise quarterback now, you do it. The following are the best of the best according to our dynasty rankings.

  1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
  2. Cam Newton (CAR)
  3. Andrew Luck (IND)

Most Likely to Improve: Andrew Luck. Taken 1st overall in 2012, Luck is the heir to Peyton Manning in Indy and should be a top-tier quarterback for many years to come. He ranked 7th in passing yards (4,374) his rookie year despite finishing next to last in completion percentage (54.1%) and being sacked the 4th most times in the league (41).

First, the offensive line. While grading out poorly last year (via Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders), this year’s edition should be much better. They’ve added Gosder Cherius at tackle and Donald Thomas at guard in free agency which should immediately boost Luck’s protection. Anything to improve that 41 number.

His completion percentage should improve as well with shorter drops and more dump offs to the running backs. With Dwayne Allen, Colby Fleener, and TY Hilton no longer rookies, less rookie mistakes, inherently, should be made. Luck, at just 23, has several productive fantasy years ahead of him and if this is his floor then watch out.

Most Likely to Drop: Aaron Rodgers. I know, I know. It’s sacrilegious. NFL MVP. Super Bowl MVP. Maybe the only quarterback in the world that could have made Green Bay forget about Brett Favre.

But while Rodgers had his best season in 2011, it just means last year, and future years, are slated to be regressions to the mean.  He had his worst Y/A (7.8) since his first full year as a starter. His offensive line has never been better than league average at allowing sacks (%+ 82 out of 100 – less than 100 is bad) and that was before Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury. They did nothing to upgrade that sore spot but did move things around in the hopes that a change would do them good.

Then there’s the running game. Oh the running game, where Cedric Benson was signed off the street and immediately made the starter in 2012. He was so bad he hasn’t even caught on with another team yet. But the Packers did much to improve that department in drafting Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Of course, with a bruiser like Lacy, the goal-line slants that Green Bay executed so well might be needed less this year and in the future. It’ll definitely prolong Rodgers health but will cut into his touchdowns.

Bottom line: Rodgers is still the safest pick. He’s only 30 and there’s been nothing to indicate he’ll drop off dramatically while still being one of the best in the league. But there are a few things that could knock him down just enough. Andrew Luck, at just 23, may be one of the best and able to give you 5-7 more years of high-end productivity. His yards, improved line, and just another year of experience should solidify this position. If this were a re-draft league, there’d be no contest. But this is dynasty.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 6th

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Here’s what already happened so take note!

And remember, if you’re able to read this, it’s the best day ever.