Monthly Archives: July 2013

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 31st

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It’s the last day of the month. Let’s see what we got:

Next month will be drafting time. Giddy up.

DFFC Coaching Series: Andy Reid

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by Jonathan Scott

Over the next few days we will be taking a look at the eight teams in the NFL that made coaching changes in the off-season and how that might affect the dynasty fantasy outlook of the offensive players on those teams. Numerous factors go into the success/failure of a team and coach but we’ll be primarily looking at just a few for each team. Murdering other people in the off season will not be one of those factors considered. The first coach we’ll look at is the most experienced – long time Eagles coach and new Chiefs coach Andy Reid.

PERSONNEL / X’s and O’s

Many things can be and have been said about Andy Reid but what can’t be argued is his offenses can produce. Reid has been a mastermind at putting his star players in a position to succeed. The best part is he’s position agnostic – quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs have all been the stars of his offensive attack. This year should be no different.

The star of this offense, for at least 2-3 years, should be Jamaal Charles. Reid should love the type of speed and versatility he brings. For years the Eagles were known as a screen heavy team in comparison to the rest of the league and there is every reason to think this team will be no different. Versatile running backs with good hands, vision, and speed as well as light, quick offensive lineman are necessary for the screen game to succeed in Kansas City and the good news is, well, we’re half-way there. Charles is the type of multi-dimensional back that can run between the tackles, bounce it off tackle for a home run, or be a heavy proponent in the passing game. Currently, Charles sits at #7 in dynasty rankings.

The offensive line, however, is a work in progress. Truth be told the only lineman even considered large is Geoff Schwartz weighing in at about 340. The rest of the line is light, athletic, and fits the mold Reid is looking for but are extremely young and lacking experience. With three linemen under the age of 24 and the oldest being former first round pick Brandon Albert at the age of 28, they are going to have to gel, and fast. If Andy Reid is as good at coaching lineman as his reputation states then this could be a top 15 offense for a few years. If they have trouble getting on the same page with Alex Smith (a notorious perfectionist who needs to trust what he sees) then this offense could have stagnant periods. With Rodney Hudson already being pushed for his starting spot at center after starting OTA’s and Training Camp as the starter, things aren’t off to a flying start.

Expect a pretty big year out of Dwayne Bowe as well. Reid has a penchant for using big, physical receivers in the way big, physical receivers should be used. Drags across the line of scrimmage, nine routes off tight coverage, and crossing routes letting them use their bodies to box out smaller DB’s. Not only does Bowe excel at these types of routes but Smith is excellent at the 15-18 yard dig/in cut and fade routes/deep balls. Smith will need a clean pocket and plenty of time to see the dragging receiver come across the line of scrimmage to make that throw accurately and on time. With this offensive line that may not be something that is afforded to him. Still, two out of three ain’t bad right? Bowe currently projects as the 15th top dynasty receiver.

As for the other receivers, Jonathan Baldwin has yet to prove he’s a viable wide receiver in the NFL despite having the physical traits scouts kill for. If he doesn’t do it this year I’m afraid he’ll never do it. Dexter McCluster could be fun for a gadget play here or there and a good third down option against safeties out of the slot but his lack of strength really limits his ceiling in this offense. I don’t expect any wide receiver to take a HUGE leap in this offense but if one does I would place my money on Donnie Avery. Injury history aside, with a competent coaching staff and a clean bill of health he has shown in the past he can at least be a contributor. He offers the one thing no one else on this roster can which is straight line, take the top off the offense speed if played tight on the line of scrimmage. He’ll play a role one way or another on this team. If anything take a flyer on him and, if he stays healthy for four or five weeks and puts up numbers, immediately flip him for an asset or pick. Let’s face, Avery will get hurt at some point. Currently, there are no other Chief receivers in the top 70.

At tight end there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Fasano is the obvious in line guy with blocking duties and occasional bootleg action on the goal line but expecting anything more. The real “battle” here is between Travis Kelce and Tony Moeaki. With the trade rumors floating around Moeaki you have to think his days are numbered. Between his sketchy health (had another knee surgery this off season) and a ready-made, younger, cheaper replacement already in house, I’d be willing to bet he gets traded. If you’re going to take a chance on someone here make it Kelce but really, if you’re taking chances on a Kansas City tight end you get what you deserve. Kelce is currently the 18th ranked tight end in dynasty ranks due to this age and the clear path to starting.

THE WILD CARD

Alex Smith, although not an uber-talented quarterback, has a skill set that Andy Reid values and can use to make the offense function. And the key word here is function.  Without being disrespectful to the other quarterbacks that have played under Reid, I believe it’s safe to say Smith is going to be the smartest one he’s had and have the fullest grasp of the playbook that any of them has had. People will line up in the correct places, check with me’s will be a big part of the offense and, 99 percent of the time, Smith will make the right audible and get them in the right play. Despite that I want to stress there is a HUGE difference between grasping the entire playbook and being able to execute the entire playbook. Smith will not be able to throw from far hashes to the far sideline and he won’t be able to hit deep plays longer than 60 yards. His arm shrinks the field for the defense without them having to try to do it themselves. Luckily the one way to stop a defense from squatting on a quarterback with a below average arm is get them on the move with bootlegs and counters. Smith is an extremely athletic quarterback and insanely accurate outside the pocket who can keep a defense honest by utilizing these skills. When the Chiefs offense has the ball between the 20’s I would expect a lot of screen action and bootleg action to generate wide open receivers down field that Smith can hit with ease. The flip side is Smith is notorious for holding onto the ball too long in the pocket and taking unnecessary sacks instead of getting rid of the ball. He is a tough guy who can take a hit but he also refuses to take a risk when pressured. Smith currently stands at 27th quarterback dynasty ranks. He’s only under contact for two more years with rookie Tyler Bray quietly climbing the depth chart.

This doesn’t sound like a lot to be excited about but we are taking a non-functional quarterback and coaching staff in Kansas City in 2011 and replacing them with above average representations for both. This should equal a big boost in numbers and opportunities for Charles, Bowe, and the other starved Chiefs skill position players. A jump from the 32nd offense in the league to the 18th offense in the league is still the same relative jump from the 18th offense to a top 5 offense.

CONCLUSION

I think of all of the coaches hired this year Andy Reid will have the biggest positive impact fantasy-wise. He has big play options at running back and receiver with that fit his style and offense. I expect a big season out of Charles and would target him as a RB1 option if he just happens to be available for trade in your dynasty league. Bowe finally got paid and looks to be happy. By all accounts he’s also a hard worker who takes pride in his craft. He continues to be a low tier WR1 or high tier WR2 in my eyes. The offensive line, although not perfect, is athletic enough to execute the type of blocking scheme and second level attacking that Reid loves in his offense and should get better as the year goes on with the youth they have. He’s also getting a substantial upgrade at quarterback in Alex Smith, a relatively weak division with the AFC West (Hello Chargers and Raiders!), and a team that already has six Pro Bowlers on the roster, albeit mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Add it all up and it’s easy to see the Chiefs going from an absolute train wreck of an offense last year to a middle of the pack, respectable offense in 2013.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 30th

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Things are picking up even more this in dynasty circles:

Lots coming up today. Stay tuned.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part IV

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Let’s look at the receivers drafted in the 4th round:

  • Ace Sanders (JAC) – Drafted 101st overall out of South Carolina, Sanders is hoping to be a poor man’s Tavon Austin. He had pedestrian stats in the receiving game (45/531/9) in college but showed promise on the return game with 15 yards per return. He’s been working out of the slot with the first team. But Sanders stands at just 5′ 7″ and still has the quarterback issue to deal with. Without Justin Blackmon starting the first four games, Sanders will have an opportunity but needs the supporting cast and hasn’t showing anything to show he’s something special. I’d stay away.
  • Josh Boyce (NE) – Drafted 102nd overall, Boyce stands at a respectable 5′ 11″ and 200 pounds and ran a 4.4 at the combine. He did start camp with a foot problem but has overcome that. With lack of receiving options anymore in New England, Boyce and Dobson have been running with the first team at times. Boyce is a guy to keep on later in dynasty drafts.
  • Chris Harper (SEA) – Drafted 123rd out of Kansas State, Harper didn’t get to flash much of his skill in K-State’s run-first offense. A physical specimen at 6′ 4″ at 229, he projects as an X-receiver in Seattle’s offense and physically resembles Sterling Sharpe. He’s not particularly quick but does have a clear path to the starting lineup with Golden Tate a free agent after this year. Seattle doesn’t figure to pass a lot but if they do, Harper is intriguing.
  • Quinton Patton (SF) – Standing 6′ 2″ with a 4.4 40-time, Patton has the size to be a quality NFL starter. His positives include good hands and control. He started off slow but Coach Harbaugh claims he’s all caught up. The receivers in front of Patton wouldn’t appear to be an issue but there are several including Kyle Wiliams, AJ Jenkins, Anquan Boldin, not to mention, Michael Crabtree. Patton will really have to elevate his game to even see snaps on the field his rookie year. Long-term, the current regime uses a run-heavy scheme with multiple two-tight end sets. It’s hard to imagine an offense where Patton could carve out a niche.

For Part I, click here. For Part II, click here. For Part III, click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 29th

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Training camp is kicking into high gear. Let’s see what we got:

  • Of course, the season-ending injuries to Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta were the big stories. We looked at what they mean, fantasy-wise, here.
  • Vance McDonald looks to get a good look in the pre-season to determine what his role will be early on. We looked at McDonald’s long-term prospects here. With a good, young offense and the mentoring of one of the best, the situation is ideal for McDonald to become an asset in dynasty leagues.
  • Kevin Kolb got more first-string snaps early on but E.J. Manual had his share. He’ll be given every opportunity to win the job so draft accordingly.
  • Jake Locker looked shaky in the beginning of camp but has picked it up. With a finite supply of starting quarterbacks, this is good news for those forced to roll with Locker as a backup.
  • Zach Ertz is also off to a good start. While, at first glance, it didn’t look like there’d be a place for Ertz, his receiving ability is too good to ignore. And with the same finite options as quarterback, drafting a quality tight end with promise is crucial. Ertz is a full-go in dynasty leagues.

Remember, if you’re able to read this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part III

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Six backs were selected in the fifth round of the 2013 NFL draft. All would be considered sleepers in dynasty fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look:

  • Denard Robinson (JAC) – Originally a quarterback at Michigan, Robinson was drafted 135th overall. Truly a jack of all trades, it seems as if Robinson’s speed is probably best suited at running back seeing as he ran a 4.34 unofficial 40-time at the combine. He grew into the role in rookie camp but it still adjusting after dropping a pass and fumbling a handoff. Robinson would be the #3 running back on the depth chart and should be stashed by all MJD owners in the event his contract isn’t renewed.
  • Stepfan Taylor (ARI) – Drafted 140th overall out of Stanford, Taylor currently sits behind Rashard Mendendhall and Ryan Williams on the depth chart. With coach Bruce Arians already calling the running back race for 26-year old Mendenhall, and the team sticking by 23-year old Ryan Williams, there doesn’t seem to be a clear path for Taylor. In addition, thanks to the NFL’s graduation rules, Taylor is also starting behind the other backs. Only draft Taylor if you have either Mendenhall or Williams on your current roster.
  • Joseph Randle (DAL) – Drafted 151st overall by Dallas, Randle has already been anointed the backup to DeMarco Murray and expected to carry the load, should it come to that. Randle is still recovering from thumb surgery but should be ready to go. While nothing special in college, the fact that he’s backing up one of the most brittle. Additionally, Randle now becomes a part of the revolving door of Dallas running backs which has had four different leading rushers in 7 years. This could be a gift and a curse for Randle but, for now, don’t pin your hopes on him.
  • Chris Thompson (WAS) – Going 154th overall to Washington, Thompson is a massive unknown. He broke his back and college and tore his ACL in consecutive years at Florida State. But Washington feels like he can do it all. At the moment, there’s a pileup in the Washington backfield but Thompson is one to remember simply because Shanahan is so unpredictable. After all, incumbent Alfred Morris was drafted in the 6th round.
  • Zac Stacy (STL) – St. Louis traded up to 160 to pick Stacy out of Vanderbilt after averaging 5.5 YPC on over 200 carries in the tough SEC last year. Stacy proved he can handle the load there but will have to compete with Daryl Richardson (23) and Isiah Pead (23).  Richardson is projected as the starter after averaging 4.8 YPC on about 100 carries in his rookie year. However, coach Jeff Fisher indicated he’s not opposed to a running back by committee approach. Stacy is talented but will have to beat two young, good players first to get noticed.
  • Mike Gillislee (MIA) – Picked 164th out of Florida, Gillislee was nothing special coming out of the draft with the look of a long-time backup. He’s also not caught up to number two Daniel Thomas as of yet and would start the season as the third running back if it started today. Gillislee is off the dynasty radar at the moment unless you’re a concered Lamar Miller owner.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here.

Dennis Pitta, Jeremy Maclin out for the year

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First it was Jeremy Maclin then Dennis Pitta. Maclin to a torn ACL and Pitta to a dislocated hip. The dynasty analysis:

  • Dennis Pitta – Pitta was ranked no later than six in dynasty rankings. With Anquan Boldin traded, Pitta was in line for a ton of targets and receptions. And with the lack of reliable tight end targets around the league, could have even improved his dynasty draft ranking. Now Pitta has a fractured hip which is not all that dissimilar from what Bo Jackson had which ended his career. In fact, two of the eight players with the same type of injury had their careers ended because of it. Needless to say, there’s little reason to draft Pitta unless you have some sort of injured reserve in your leagues. Ed Dickson will improve on his 44th dynasty ranking. He did have a respectable 54/528/5 line in his only season as a starter but that will probably be the ceiling for him.
  • Jeremy Maclin – Maclin was ranked 25th in dynasty rankings heading into the season (and a contract year) before tearing his ACL. 25th may have been high seeing as Chip Kelly goes run-first and the quarterback question is still up in the air. But showing glimpses of talent, being the #1 target on a team and at just 25 years old, Maclin still made a good investment in dynasty leagues. However, now he’ll have to wait until his age-26 season and find a team willing to take a chance. For the Eagles this year, Riley Cooper will take over. If a player of Maclin’s ability produced no more than 66 yards a game over four years, I don’t know that Cooper can do much more.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part III

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Part three of our look at dynasty rookie wide receivers includes those drafted in the third round of the 2013 NFL draft. These would be true sleepers in any format.

  • Terrance Williams (DAL) – Drafted 74th overall out of Baylor, Williams was expected to compete for the third receiver position in Dallas. At 6′ 2″ and 208 pounds, Williams was billed as a Mike Wallace-type vertical threat. However, Williams has had issues doing the most basic receiving duties like, you know, receiving. Williams seems to be another in the revolving door of third receivers the Cowboys have had over the years. He’s a late round prospect in dynasty leagues and a must-own for any Miles Austin owners, even if it’s for the taxi squad. But don’t spend too high of a pick.
  • Keenan Allen (SD) – Allen was drafted two picks after Williams at 76 to San Diego. Allen was Cal’s all-time leading receiver after just three seasons. He excels in route running and receiving but ran a disappointing 4.7 before the draft. However, the Chargers think it should have been closer to a 4.5 since Allen was coming off a PCL tear. Even so, he currently sits 4th on the Chargers depth chart behind Danario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, and Vincent Brown. Plus, Philip Rivers continues to trend downwards with less zip on his ball than ever before. His talent outweighs his situation so there is hope. Allen currently sits at 46 in dynasty rankings.
  • Marquise Goodwin (BUF) – Drafted two picks after Allen, Goodwin went 78th to Buffalo out of Texas. With a 4.27 40-time, Goodwin set the third fastest 40-time since the combine went digital in1999.  Hopefully, his 5′ 9″ stature doesn’t prevent the Bills from using him on the outside where he, literally, had to slow down on a couple deep bombs. As with the other Bills position players, their long-term success will hinge on E.J. Manual. Hopefully, Manual will learn to get Goodwin the ball. He’s the first prospect from this list that I can get excited about.
  • Markus Wheaton (PIT) –  Drafted 79th by Pittsburgh, Wheaton was brought in to presumably, be groomed for Mike Wallace’s old spot. According to former scout Daniel Jeremiah, Wheaton “fits the new mold they’ve got there, guys who can win one-on-ones with quickness, but he’s also got big-play ability with top speed and feisty toughness.” Wheaton enters a stable quarterback situation, a clear path to the #3 receiving spot immediately and an offense coaching staff responsible for 3,700 passing yards last year. Hopefully Wheaton can carve out a piece of that early and often.
  • Stedman Bailey (STL) – Drafted 92nd overall by the Rams, Bailey is buried behind Brian Quick, Chris Givens, and West Virginia teammate Tavon Austin, even though Bailey led the Mountaineers in receiving yards and had an amazing 25 touchdowns. Pre-combine he was reported to look impressive with good routes and catching everything in sight. He only slipped thanks to sub-par 40 times and other combine stats. Bailey is at the mercy of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense but would be a great pick on most other teams with less competition. As it is, he’s worth nothing more than a taxi squad pick at this point.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here. For Part IV click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part II

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The second edition of our look at dynasty rookie running backs gets into sleeper pick territory. These next backs were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the 2013 NFL draft and offer plenty of intrigue.

  • Knile Davis (KC) – Drafted 96th overall, Davis was a combine stud with a 4.3 40-time and 31 reps on the bench press (which led all running backs). But when it comes to game time, he’s being compared to Shonn Greene. He concluded his college career with 8 fumbles and a 3.4 YPC. Looking at the situation in Kansas City, there is no path to starters minutes with Jamaal Charles. Nor should there be. Unless Davis can show promise in the few opportunities he’ll get, there’s not much to go off there. The only real reason to draft Davis is as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles.
  • Johnathan Franklin (GB) – The Packers traded up to the 125th pick to snag Franklin to go along with Eddie Lacy. The Packers got great value as some had Franklin as the best running back in the draft after averaging over six yards per carry at UCLA. But at the same time, it remains to be seen where Franklin will fit in the new look backfield. Lacy is the obvious first stringer and goal line back but is Franklin a change of pace? 3rd down option? If he can get a cut of Aaron Rodgers throws, he’d be worth something as soon as this year. If not, Franklin is nothing more than a Lacy handcuff at this point.
  • Marcus Lattimore (SF) – After totaling almost 1,500 yards and 19 total touchdowns as a freshman, Lattimore tore his left ACL the next year and completely ripped up his knee the year after, tearing 3 -CL’s (ACL, PCL, MCL) in his right knee. Widely projected as a top pick, Lattimore fell to the 49ers who, with their abundance of picks, was able to draft Lattimore as a luxury. Dynasty fantasy football players should probably treat Lattimore the same way. He won’t contribute any this year but would be great on the taxi squad. The offense in San Francisco is ideal but there’s no clear path to being the starter. Frank Gore has at least one more year while  there’s competition for carries from Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. Treat Lattimore as a luxury instead of a necessity.

None of these backs will contribute much this year but all are worth keeping an eye on for taxi squad. If NFL teams think this highly of them, you should too. Two are in the top 35 of running backs in dynasty ranks.

Part I click here. For Part III click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 26th

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Giddy up:

  • Surprising news from Seattle where Percy Harvin severely injured his hip while training which could knock him out for the year. If so, this would be the second consecutive year and significantly damage his current #7 ranking among dynasty receivers. As for the rest of Seattle’s offense, they did pretty good without Harvin last year so I don’t see a dramatic effect on their production.
  • Ronnie Hillman opened camp as the starter with Montee Ball also practicing with the first team. I still don’t think that picture gets any clearer this season and could see a hot-hand approach and that’s not including Knowshon Moreno in the mix. Don’t draft Ball expecting to get a dynasty franchise back.
  • Santonio Holmes might not be ready for Week 1. AVOID!
  • Arian Foster is starting camp on the PUP list. Not a huge surprise but just another nick that Foster has to deal with. His half a yard drop in YPC the last three years is more of a concern for me. Still just 26, it’s hard to say how much longer Foster will be at the top of draft boards. He’s still a top five option in dynasty rankings but Foster fantasy owners need to check in the availability of Ben Tate ASAP.