2013 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Big Board – Round 1 (1st Edition)

The time is (almost) here. Your dynasty fantasy football draft. Where you can finally put all your Madden Franchise mode skills to use. Unlike re-drafts, where the choices are obvious, you’re playing GM to your very own franchise. You have to take into account need, potential, opportunity and, most of all, skill. Let’s see who DFFC would take in an IDP, 12-team PPR league:

Round 1, Pick 1 – RB-Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – After finishing 26th in rushing, Pittsburgh needed an injection of talent in the running game. After long-time incumbent Rashard Mendenhall moved on Pittsburgh determined that holdovers Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are not suited for the top spot. Enter Bell. At 6′ 1″ and 230 pounds, the Michigan State product can be a punishing runner. Pittsburgh is also implementing a zone-blocking scheme along the lines of Mike Shanahan’s offenses in Denver and now Washington that will allow Bell to see the holes created by his lineman and strike where convenient. Bell is already penciled in as the starter and has a chance to become the rare rookie that contributes both now and later.

Round 1, Pick 2 – RB-Eddie Lacy (GB) – The Bruiser from ‘Bama was thought to be the top running back in the NFL draft but fell to 61 and Green Bay. With little (to no) competition, Lacy has been able to establish his starter status after some impressive practicesBecoming what New Orleans had hoped for fellow ‘Bama running back Mark Ingram appears to be the goal – someone who can convert the 3rd and 1, 1st and Goal, etc. However, there are some real concerns with Lacy’s long-term health which caused several teams to refrain from taking him in the NFL draft. Lacy’s doctors insist he’ll be ok but it’s still something to watch. If healthy, Lacy will be a fine compliment to the passing attack of Aaron Rodgers and co. He, like Bell, has a chance to be a contributor very early in his career.

Round 1, Pick 3 – RB-Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back taken in the draft, Bernard is probably the most explosive. He’s being compared to Ray Rice thanks to his short stature but big build and versatility. He’s so versatile the Bengals even have him lining out wide. Skill-wise he’s set but it’s all about opportunity. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was signed in 2012 to a three-year contract. He could aways be cut earlier but chances are they’ll let his contact run out after 2014 and block Bernard’s path to an everyday role. The hope is Green-Ellis falls flat and they turn the ball over to Bernard sooner than expected. At the moment, he’s a RB3, at best, but could be up to RB1 by the end of the season.

Round 1, Pick 4 – RB-Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted in the second round out of Wisconsin, Ball was probably the most experienced of the running back class after almost 1,000 attempts in college. He entered a high-powered offense but a crowded backfield. Knowshon Moreno has had four years to show he’s not the long-term answer but Denver will still use him sparingly. It’s Ronnie Hillman that’s blocking Ball’s path to fantasy greatness. Hillman was drafted in the 3rd round of last year’s draft and has ‘earned’ the starting spot. He’s currently the 1A to Ball’s 1B which sounds eerily familiar to Coach John Fox’s last team where the Panthers refused to favor one of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Fantasy owners don’t need to be reminded of that hot mess. It’s ok to draft Ball but don’t expect a workhorse role for at least a year.

Round 1, Pick 5 – WR – DeAndre Hopkins – In the first upset of the first round, I have Houston first round pick DeAndre Hopkins as the first receiver off the board. At 6′ 1″ and 214 pounds, Hopkins fits the mold more as a long-term receiver than Tavon Austin. Drafted by Houston, he was the immediate favorite for the ‘Z’ position and has not disappointed. He had a fantastic week of camp, including a 40-yard bomb, and has already established the trust of the coaching staff. There is no one to challenge him as the heir apparent and he’ll get the benefit of learning from one of the best (very Terrell Owens-esque). He’s already slated for at least 50 catches his rookie year with that number sure to grow. Grab him early, grab him often.

Round 1, Pick 6 – TE-Tyler Eifert (CIN) – With more NFL offenses utilizing their tight ends as receivers, expect more rookie tight ends to be drafted higher.  Tyler Eifert, drafted in the first round in 2013 is first up. Even though Cincinnati had an established tight end, and not necessarily a bad one, they still opted to draft the Notre Dame product. He’s lining up wide and catching passes in traffic which is music to dynasty fantasy owners ears. And with the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski going in the first or second rounds of drafts, Eifert could be right up there with them and soon. There’s no doubt that tight end is the position with the most disparity between first and worst. If you can grab a difference maker, you take him. Eifert could be that.

Round 1, Pick 7 – WR-Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) – Who? Exactly. Thompkins went undrafted this year and only earned a spot because of the massive upheaval in New England’s receiving corps. But boy is he making it count. Not only is a vertical threat but has shown signs of being a possession receiver as well. Of course, it always helps when you’re on the same page as Tom Brady. Brady threw the ball 637 times last year and with four of his top five receivers gone, the competition for targets is wide open. Thompkins has been the most impressive so far. Impress your friends and take him.

Round 1, Pick 8 – RB-Christine Michael (SEA) – Michael’s the first player off the board not walking into an obviously advantageous position but he could be thrown into one soon. Michael was a first round talent but fell to the second due to off-field issues. His tough, explosive running style is an ideal fit in Seattle and not that much different from incumbent Marshawn Lynch. But Lynch has his own off-field issues to deal with which could propel Michael to the starting lineup. Current backup Robert Turbin is just now getting back on the field so if Michael continues to impress, this first-round talent could be the recipient of Seattle’s powerful running game. The upside is huge.

Round 1, Pick 9 – WR-Tavon Austin (STL) – The highest receiver drafted at #8 overall, Austin is going to be a ping-pong ball and bounce all over the place. Out wide, in the slot, in the backfield. It’s just a shame he’s heading into an offense of such uncertainty. Sam Bradford is in a make-or-break year, they appear to have full-blown RBBC on their hands and there’s no skill position players coming back to estabslish some sort of consistency after the departure of Steven Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, he’s justified his draft position. But throw in the fact that Brian Schottenheimer is his OC, he of the almost 500 rush attempts last year, and the passing game is even murkier. Austin is a talent but doesn’t enter the best situation. And at this point, opportunity is half the battle.

Round 1, Pick 10 – QB-E.J. Manuel (BUF) – The first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, Manuel should also be the first quarterback off dynasty fantasy boards. Manuel is a big boy at 6′ 5″ and 230 pounds. He’s the captain of the rebuilding effort of the Buffalo franchise and should be given plenty of opportunities. Just the fact that he’ll be the starter in Buffalo at a minimum of 2-3 years props up his value since there’s only a finite number of starting quarterbacks in fantasy. His weapons are an asset as well as Buffalo has surrounded him with rookie receivers Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Da’Rick Rogers and rookie tight end Chris Gragg. Throw in all-world running back C.J. Spiller and perennial 1,000 yard receiver Stevie Johnson and Manuel has no excuses. We’ll have to wait and see him in game action to determine if he’ll be a fantasy starter in years to come but Manuel is definitely in the right place in the right time.

Round 1, Pick 11 – TE-Zach Ertz (PHI) – Drafted in the second round, Ertz looked as if he walked into a less than ideal fantasy situation. New Philly coach Chip Kelly had been a run-first coach at Oregon and there were already two tight ends in front of him. Incumbent Brent Celek and free agent James Casey. Originally, Celek would have been the in-line tight end with Casey as the ‘move.’ However, Ertz has earned first-team reps in practice and is now predicted to have more catches and yards than either of the other two Philly tight ends after impressing the team. As with Eifert and Manuel, Ertz plays a position with a finite amount of quality players. Don’t be afraid to draft Ertz.

Round 1, Pick 12 – WR-Markus Wheaton (PIT) – Drafted in the 3rd round, Wheaton is the heir apparent to the departed Mike Wallace. However, he’s also been drawing comparisons to Hines Ward. Physically, both don’t/didn’t stand out but Wheaton has shown the ability to go over the middle and catch balls in traffic (at least in camp)Then comes the good news that Wheaton is already practicing with the first team and lining up in the slot or the outsideUsing Ward as a comp, I don’t think anyone would be disappointed in a guy with six 80+ receptions/1,000 yard seasons. His status may be murky this year but shouldn’t be after that.

Click here for a mock round two and be sure to follow us on twitter for your daily dynasty update!

Daily Dynasty Update – August 9th

It’s Friday. Which means you can do nothing but dynasty cheat sheets tonight. Let’s  get it on:

  • Tom Brady is feasting. Despite the massive turnover in receivers, Brady is still as locked in as ever. He’ll drop in dynasty league drafts but sure things are hard to come by. Don’t sleep on Brady. Plus, I think they’ll have to carry Brady off the field before he retires.
  • Oakland receiver Denarius Moore has been inconsistent in camp so far. Coach Dennis Allen even went as far as to say Oakland doesn’t have that ‘go-to’ guy. Yikes.
  • 8th overall pick Tavon Austin has looked excellent in Rams camp. It still remains to be seen exactly how he’ll be used but he’s sure to be involved. Also keep in mind that former Jet OC Brian Schottenheimer is now in St. Louis. The Jets didn’t exactly fling the ball around.
  • I take back any concern I had about Zach Ertz. He’s been lining up wide, making some great catches and showing why some teams thought he was the best tight end in the draft. Initially, it wasn’t clear where Ertz would wind up behind incumbent Brent Celek and free agent James Casey but locals are predicting he leads the position in catches.
  • Keenan Allen has yet to distinguish himself as a possible replacement at receiver in San Diego. Currently a later round pick, exhibition games will be the real test. Temper your expectations accordingly.
  • Rookie receiver Marcus Wheaton is doing all the right things in Pittsburgh camp. He’s going over the middle for catches a la Hines Ward. Combine that with his speed and Wheaton is a great prospect in dynasty leagues. Draft accordingly.
  • Ryan Broyles is a go in Detroit despite sitting out practice. A two-time ACL tear victim, Broyles is extremely fragile long-term but his position as the receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL can’t be ignored. He’s worth a flyer and could be a tradeable asset down the road.
  • Maquise Goodwin has been better than advertised in his first camp in Buffalo. We looked at Goodwin in-depthGoodwin didn’t get much action in college at Texas but his 4.27 40-time made people take notice. He’s been working in the slot at out wide and catching absolute bombs. Goodwin is one of our favorite late round flyers for your taxi squad.
  • Rookie linebacker Sio Moore is currently the starter in Oakland. He’ll be on the strong-side. Currently at 42 in dynasty linebacker rankings, he can be bumped up.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 8th

Almost ready for the first full week of pre-season. Let’s see what we got:

 

Daily Dynasty Update – August 7th

Let’s get it on.

  • Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman are still splitting carries with the first team in Denver.  I still don’t buy the Montee Ball hype – he’s in a RBBC and his coach is notorious for using multiple backs.
  • Mark Ingram is looking good in New Orleans. He’s done nothing in his career to unseat Pierre Thomas but maybe this is the year.
  • Another breakout candidate is Michael Floyd from Arizona. He is officially the #2 receiver in the desert. With an upgrade at quarterback, the chances will be there.
  • Mychal Kendricks is poised to be a big part of the defense in Philadelphia this season. The second-year linebacker should be going at the quarterback more which is good for sacks. Kendricks is currently 18th in dynasty linebacker ranks.
  • A.J. Jenkins (finally) had a good day in camp for San Francisco. There isn’t much competition at receiver in San Francisco so the door is open.
  • Justin Blackmon is still hurt and probably won’t play on Friday for Jacksonville. So much talent, so little production.
  • Bryce Brown may fumble the #2 spot behind LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia. He dropped three passes today and the knock is his hesitancy to run between the tackles.

Remember, if you’re able to see this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Quarterback Rankings – Tier I

When drafting or building a dynasty team, it’s not unusual to adopt the same strategy as a real NFL team – draft a franchise quarterback and build around him. Think about it – how many quarterbacks last 10 years as opposed to running backs or receivers? Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady all of whom have been around for a decade or more and are still viable fantasy options. If you can snag a franchise quarterback now, you do it. The following are the best of the best according to our dynasty rankings.

  1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
  2. Cam Newton (CAR)
  3. Andrew Luck (IND)

Most Likely to Improve: Andrew Luck. Taken 1st overall in 2012, Luck is the heir to Peyton Manning in Indy and should be a top-tier quarterback for many years to come. He ranked 7th in passing yards (4,374) his rookie year despite finishing next to last in completion percentage (54.1%) and being sacked the 4th most times in the league (41).

First, the offensive line. While grading out poorly last year (via Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders), this year’s edition should be much better. They’ve added Gosder Cherius at tackle and Donald Thomas at guard in free agency which should immediately boost Luck’s protection. Anything to improve that 41 number.

His completion percentage should improve as well with shorter drops and more dump offs to the running backs. With Dwayne Allen, Colby Fleener, and TY Hilton no longer rookies, less rookie mistakes, inherently, should be made. Luck, at just 23, has several productive fantasy years ahead of him and if this is his floor then watch out.

Most Likely to Drop: Aaron Rodgers. I know, I know. It’s sacrilegious. NFL MVP. Super Bowl MVP. Maybe the only quarterback in the world that could have made Green Bay forget about Brett Favre.

But while Rodgers had his best season in 2011, it just means last year, and future years, are slated to be regressions to the mean.  He had his worst Y/A (7.8) since his first full year as a starter. His offensive line has never been better than league average at allowing sacks (%+ 82 out of 100 – less than 100 is bad) and that was before Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury. They did nothing to upgrade that sore spot but did move things around in the hopes that a change would do them good.

Then there’s the running game. Oh the running game, where Cedric Benson was signed off the street and immediately made the starter in 2012. He was so bad he hasn’t even caught on with another team yet. But the Packers did much to improve that department in drafting Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Of course, with a bruiser like Lacy, the goal-line slants that Green Bay executed so well might be needed less this year and in the future. It’ll definitely prolong Rodgers health but will cut into his touchdowns.

Bottom line: Rodgers is still the safest pick. He’s only 30 and there’s been nothing to indicate he’ll drop off dramatically while still being one of the best in the league. But there are a few things that could knock him down just enough. Andrew Luck, at just 23, may be one of the best and able to give you 5-7 more years of high-end productivity. His yards, improved line, and just another year of experience should solidify this position. If this were a re-draft league, there’d be no contest. But this is dynasty.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 6th

Here’s what already happened so take note!

And remember, if you’re able to read this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part IV

We’re entering super-sleeper / possibly cut territory with running backs sale. Let’s see what we got.

  • Latavius Murray – Drafted out of UCF, Murray initially drew comparisons with fellow Raider Darren McFadden with his size and speed and drew praise from coach Dennis Allen.  Now sidelined with a foot issue, Murray might have lost his chance to be the primary backup.
  • Kenjon Barner – Drafted out of Oregon, Barner was brought in behind an already crowded backfield on Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert in Carolina. Nothing special physical-wise, Barner stands at 5′ 9″ and 196 pounds. He’ll be lucky to get on the field and is better suited for special teams.
  • Andre Ellington – Drafted 187th out of Clemson, Elllington currently sits 4th on the Cardinals depth chart. However, with Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Willaims hurting, Ellington suddenly has a shot at some playing time and significant time in pre-season. He knows how to hit his holes and accelerate. Only fellow rookie Stepfan Taylor stands in his way. Ellington might be the best of this bunch.
  • Mike James – Pick 189 of Tampa out of the U, James compares to Earnest Graham in size and ability. James has already secured the backup spot to Doug Martin so grab him if you can in deeper leagues.
  • Rex Burkhead – Drafted one pick later out of the cornfields of Nebraska, Burkhead is nothing more than a special teams player at this point. His path to fantasy relevance is all but closed thanks to fellow rookie Giovani Bernard. Only draft Burkhead if you plan on keeping Bernard.
  • Spencer Ware – Drafted 194th out of LSU, Ware has no shot at running back in Seattle’s crowded (and talent-rich) backfield. Which is why Pete Carroll would like him to learn fullback. It wont’ get him much fantasy stats so you can pass.
  • Theo Riddick – With the 199th pick, Riddick went to Detroit to join the competition at running back between Reggie Bush, Mikel Leshoure, and Joique Bell. So far, Riddick is still competing for his roster spot. Nothing to see here.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here. For Part III click here.

Dynasty Quarterback Fantasy Patterns

by David Allison

Welcome to a feature that I’m going to call “Patterns Discovered Through Research” or “PDTR” for short (I really wish one of those words started with a vowel…).

What I’ve done over the last few weeks is plot every quarterback’s performance since 2005 and answered the following questions:

  • Where did they finish the season?
  • Where did they finish the next season?
  • What changed year to year?

I went into this project knowing that there would be some aberrations, years where a quarterback far outperformed the previous year with almost zero Wikipedial explanation. But over the eight seasons that I plotted, there were only a handful of such years. Every other year could be justified because of factors such as:

  • New Coach
  • New Team
  • Addition/Subtraction of a major weapon
  • Opportunity (IE being benched or moving in front of a veteran)
  • Legal Issues/Suspension
  • Large swing in win loss record

It should be noted that I didn’t include injuries. You can’t predict injuries and they tend to throw off a player’s performance for two years (The year he, OR SHE, is injured and their recovery year). Through the process, I discovered that some issues matter more than others. For example, swings in win/loss records do not have a consistent effect on a quarterback’s value. But changing teams almost always a positive effect. Overall, here are the big observations to keep in mind as you draft/decide on keepers:

  • A quarterback consistently does great things in their third year. Keep in mind that the quarterback needs consistency in their staff for this pattern to hold. That’s good news for Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder.
  • A quarterback who plays his entire rookie year does not improve in their second year.
  • There is a consistent sophomore slump. That’s bad news for Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill.
  • A quarterback will almost always show significant improvement when they switch teams. Note that they need to be named the start 100% for this to hold. That’s great news for Carson Palmer and Alex Smith.
  • A quarterback will see his performance really level off on their fifth year. If they still are providing inconsistent results, then they are not worth owning as quarterback is the one position that traditionally provides consistent results. That’s bad news for Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler.
  • A quarterback never seems to repeat rushing touchdown performances unless they’re a QB that specializes in rushing.
  • A quarterback is not generally affected by the offseason loss of a strong offensive weapon. Usually, they’re able to make due with what they have. With that said, adding a major weapon in the offseason provides inconsistent results. That’s good news for Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.
  • And the most important one; a quarterback tends to see similar results to his previous year. The offense runs through them, so unless they get injured or suspended, they’re going to have a similar year to their previous season. Like I mentioned earlier, it’s very rare for a quarterback to make any sort of jump, or fall, after they finish their fourth year.

So with those rules in mind that I give you my Quarterback rankings for the 2013 season:

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Cam Newton
  4. Tom Brady
  5. Colin Kaepernick
  6. Robert Griffin III
  7. Peyton Manning
  8. Matt Ryan
  9. Tony Romo
  10. Andy Dalton
  11. Matthew Stafford
  12. Eli Manning
  13. Russell Wilson
  14. Carson Palmer
  15. Andrew Luck
  16. Philip Rivers
  17. Joe Flacco
  18. Sam Bradford
  19. Josh Freeman
  20. Christian Ponder
  21. Ben Roethlisberger
  22. Jay Cutler
  23. Ryan Tannehill
  24. Jake Locker

Daily Dynasty Update – August 5th

Finally, football is back.

  • From last night’s game, Lamar Miller looked solid (besides the botched hand off) with two runs of 10 and 11 yards. Miller is rated 13th in the latest running back ranks.
  • Detroit running back Reggie Bush has been everything he was supposed to be – catching balls and getting top-line speed very quickly. Reggie is a solid RB2 at his current 20th ranking. But if you built a strong dynasty team around him, he could be a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues.
  • Eddie Lacy looked good in Green Bay’s scrimmage. He’s set up for a lot of goal-line work as a RB2 in their high powered offense. Meanwhile, Johnathan Franklin did not impress so temper your expectations.
  • Chicago’s Alshon Jeffery has firmly established himself as the #2 in Chicago. If Cutler gets up to 600 pass attempts, he’ll need to throw to someone else besides Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Plus, Brandon Marshall isn’t getting any younger at 29.
  • Tennessee rookie receiver Justin Hunter had two drops in practice. Hunter is still only a taxi-squad level prospect until he can be reliable.
  • Cincy rookie tight end Tyler Eifert made the most of AJ Green sitting out of practice. Eifert needs to be the first rookie tight end off your board and could be a top 10 pick in dynasty leagues.
  • On the flip side, Dallas rookie tight end Gavin Escobar has done nothing to stand out. Escobar was entering a good situation with Dallas’ pass-happy offense and learning from one of the best tight ends in history. Use caution.
  • Jacksonville rookie receiver Ace Sanders caught a couple of first downs in practice. We looked at Sanders in-dept here.

Happy Monday everybody.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 4th

And a happy Sunday to you.

Happy kickoff everybody!