Monthly Archives: February 2014

Updated Dynasty Tight End Rankings – February 2014

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Click here for updated tight end dynasty rankings. 

  • No big shakes in the top five – Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, and Vernon Davis are all there. These rankings should hold barring significant injury news on Gronk.
  • The big risers this month include Tim Wright from Tampa Bay, Delanie Walker from Tennessee, Brandon Bostick from Green Bay, and Mychal Rivera from Oakland. With the exception of Walker, all are young and are expected to see even more action in 2014. Bostick would be the guy that most leagues shouldn’t know about quite yet so get him if you can.
  • The big drops include Jared Cook of the Rams, Antonio Gates from San Diego, Brandon Pettigrew, who is set to be a free agent, Fred Davis, also set to be a free agent, and the ‘retiring’ Tony Gonzalez. Cook just fell off a cliff after a promising season opener. The Rams are expected to add even more weapons, diminishing Cook’s role. Brandon Pettigrew has had all the opportunity in the world with Detroit’s high-octane attack but hasn’t produced. Chances are low he’ll suddenly break out on another team. Fred Davis hasn’t produce since his breakout year  three years ago. Now rankings are taking in to account Tony Gonzalez’ retirement. But I won’t believe it until I see it. If you can snag Gonzalez for a late round pick in your draft, or something equivalent, do it. 

Your Dynasty Questions Answered, Part V

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After a week to re-charge, we’re back at it with the latest dynasty news and notes. Also, we’re back at answering your questions. Be sure to email us at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com. Taylor writes:

I’m in a quasi-dynasty 12 team keeper league non-PPR, starting 1QB (1pt/20yds passing & 6pt/pass TD), 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1(RB/WR/TE), 1K, 2LB, 2DL, 2DB, & 1(LB/DL/DB). IDP scoring is, presently, 1pt/tackle (.5/assist), 3/sack, 2/stuff (does not count sacks), 3/force fumble, 4/INT, and 1/pass defensed. However, there is a possibility IDP scoring may significantly increase this coming year.

We keep 10 players from our 25 player roster, giving free agency pretty good depth going into the next year. My roster is as follows:
QB: Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler
RB: Gio Bernard, D Murray, D Wilson, Helu, Gerhart, K Robinson, and L Murray
WR: Green, Gordon, VJax, Hopkins, Boykin, Jernigan
TE: J Cameron, L Green
LB: David, Wagner, Laurinaitis, D Smith
DL: Watt, Quinn
DB: B Pollard, H Smith, & J Cyprien
So, my current absolute keepers are Bernard, Murray, Green, Gordon, David, Watt, and Quinn
Leaving me with three spots left, who should I fill out my keepers with? I’m thinking VJax, Cameron, and either Wagner, Laurinaitis, or Hopkins.  I really don’t know how much it’s worth investing in speculation, but VJax is aging and TE’s are HUGELY important (I do like Cameron’s consistency though, especially also having Gordon). Yes, I know my team is stacked (came in 2nd this year), but I’m pulling my hair out trying to decide who to keep, and where on my roster I might be able to get value from trading. HELP!!!!!!

Alright, let’s take a look at your roster with your starting line up with the absolute keepers since I agree with all of those:

QB:
RB: Bernard
RB: Murray
WR: Green
WR: Gordon
TE:
FLEX:
DL: Watt
DL: Quinn
LB: David
LB:
DB:
DB:
FLEX:

QB – Your quarterbacks are good but not great. I would say they’re not even QB1 in your 12-team league so dropping them is ok. And while quarterback is certainly important, with only 12 teams in your league, it’s not as if there won’t be other options in your draft.

RB – You have several high-upside guys like David Wilson, Khiry Robinson and Latavius Murray but with only keeping 10 players, it’s a luxury you can’t afford right now. Besides, DeMarco Murray and Giovani Bernard, both under 27, are fine options in a dynasty league.

WR – With Josh Gordon and A.J. Green, you have two of the top five receivers in dynasty. Kudos to you for making that happen. Those are guys you’ll have for a few years. As for your other options, guys like Jerrell Jernigan and Jarrett Boykin also have a lot of upside but you just don’t have enough spots.

To me, dropping Vincent Jackson is preferable to dropping DeAndre Hopkins. Jackson is very talented and produces very well for fantasy teams. But he’s also 31 with a new coach and an uncertain situation at quarterback, three big red flags as you head in to next year and beyond. With DeAndre Hopkins, you’re getting a 22-year old that produced a 50-catch, 800-yard season with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. And while he’ll have a new coach and quarterback as well, the assistance of Andre Johnson allows Hopkins’ game to open up. Houston is also a lot further long, talent-wise overall than Tampa. However, I still wouldn’t keep Hopkins because…

TE – In Jordan Cameron, you have a top five option at tight end that’s only 26. He’s coming off an 80-catch, 900-yard season with equally as bad quarterback play as the two receivers mentioned above. You can easily slot him in as your starter next year. To me, Cameron is a keeper.

This may come as a surprise but Ladarius Green also would be a keeper for me. Freakishly athletic at 6′ 6″ with a 4.5 40-time, Green has Jimmy Graham-like physical attributes. Green is the heir apparent to Antonio Gates and if quarterback Philip Rivers uses him like he did Gates in his prime, you’re in line for a few 1,000 yard, 10-touchdown seasons. As you alluded to, tight end is becoming more and more important. Having a tight end now and for the future can server you well.

DL – Again, kudos for snagging two of the top five defensive ends in the NFL and dynasty. Robert Quinn and J.J. Watt are both under 25 and play in aggressive schemes, insuring high sack totals. This is an easy call.

DB – Defensive back may be the most replaceable position in all of IDP football. The stats for defensive backs are just too random with a multitude of outside factors determining who gets tackles, interceptions, etc. You’re correct in passing on all of them.

LB – Lavonte David was a top three linebacker in fantasy leagues last year and shows no signs of slowing down. Just 24 and playing in new coach Lovie Smith’s system, David should replicate his production for man years to come. As far as keeping another linebacker, I think you’d be wise to do so, especially with IDP points potentially playing a bigger role in your league. I would keep Bobby Wagner as your second LB. Wagner racks up the tackles with 140 his rookie year and averaging 10 per game in his final eight games of 2013. Those tackle number would balance out David’s big-play ability nicely. He’ll be just 24 when the season starts and plays on one of the best defenses in the league, if not all time.

There you have it. I’d keep Cameron, Green, and Wagner to fill out your roster. Your defense of Quinn, Watt, David, and now Wagner should challenge for the best in your league. I’d also have a hard time believing there’s a stronger set of tight ends. Good luck!

Remember, send your questions to dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com!

Daily Dynasty Update – February 8th

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Dynasty Recap – Super Bowl 48 – Seattle thrashes Denver, 43-8

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  • Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was his usual efficient self, completing 72% of his passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 26 yards rushing. Wilson performed admirably and is an ideal QB2 in dynasty leagues. A healthy Percy Harvin is just a bonus heading in to 2014.
  • Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas set a Super Bowl record with 13 catches and added 118 yards and a touchdown. Thomas is firmly in the top-tier of dynasty receivers as long as Peyton Manning is around.
  • Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor had a big game with 10 tackles and two passes defended. Chancellor could have made a claim for game MVP but being the best player on a great defense will do. He’s a DB1 heading in to 2014.

Your Dynasty Questions Answered, Part IV

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Another question, this time about the value of a pick in dynasty rookie drafts against a proven commodity. Don’t forget to send your questions to dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com. Chris says:
“Unique format – 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX. 12-team full point PPR. To me this format is all about having quality WR depth. Would you give up the #3 pick in this years rookie draft for Torrey Smith? I have a roster that is able to win now and in favor of making the deal but would like another opinion.”
That is a tough call. Just going off of that information, I’d be inclined to do that trade as well. While this draft has a ton of depth at nearly every position, there are no slam dunk prospects such as Andrew Luck a few years ago. You’ll still be able to get quality talent in later rounds even at the receiver position. Rotoworld recently had a great piece on the second-tier of receivers in this years draft who all will most likely be available in the second and third rounds.
For Smith, he’s still just 25 so it’s not as if you’re trading for a 30-something receiver. He set career highs with 65 catches and over 1,100 yards this year while being the only effective Baltimore offensive weapon which, subsequently, forced defenses to focus more on covering him. Should Baltimore upgrade at the opposite receiver position or along the offensive line so they allow less than three sacks a game, Smith’s value with only increase.
At the end of the day, built to win or not, getting Torrey Smith for the third overall is worth it.

Your Dynasty Question Answered, Part III

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We roll on with more of your questions. Be sure to get your questions in at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com.

Ben asks:

So I’m in a 12 team standard dynasty league. We keep 15 and play with IDP’s and our cut down is 10 players.  We start: QB, RB, WR, TE, WR/TE, two (2) WR/RB, K, three (3) LB/DB spots, 1 DL. One (1) point per 15 yds rushing/receiving; one (1) point per 35 yd returning, Six (6) points TD, One (1) point per tackle, 0.25 points per assist tackle, two (2) point per sack, three (3) each for picks, FF, or FR, one (1) point per PD

QB – Matt Ryan, Mathew Stafford

RB – Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Shane Vereen, Steven Ridley, Marcus Lattimore, Andre Ellington, Bernard Pierce, Chris Ivory, Latavius Murray, Jonathan Stewart

WR – Demaryrius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton

TE – Jason Witten, Ladarius Green, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph

DL – JJ Watt

LB – Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner

I have a pretty stacked roster but I’m at a loss on prioritizing the last couple of keepers. My thoughts on the obvious keepers are: Ryan, Stafford, AP, Lynch, Vereen, Ellington, Lattimore, Ridley, Thomas, Gordon, Cobb, TY Hilton, Watt

This leaves me with having to choose two tight ends, or Kuechly and one of those TE’s.  With the importance of game changing tight ends being the edge in FF, where do I look for upside in this situation?

You’re right, that roster is pretty stacked and you’re spot on with your tight end assessment. But I’d be inclined to look at your running backs again. Let’s dive in:

QB – Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are about the same tier in terms of dynasty rankings. You can only play one a week but with injuries always a concern, keeping both is the safe play. So you’ve got 13 spots left.

RB – Let’s get the two obvious out-of-the-way: Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are staying. Both are approaching the expiration date for running backs but are still top ten options. You off-set the age issue with those two by keeping dynasty prospects Marcus Lattimore (22) and Andre Ellington (25). Both will play a big role in their offenses next year and their potential is too great to let go now.

However, I’d seriously consider releasing Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. Ridley has been a constant in Coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse due to his fumble issues. Furthermore, New England has passed on 57% of their plays the last two years, limiting Ridley’s rushing opportunities. Which brings us to Vereen. If you were in a PPR league, Vereen would be a no-brainer. But if we’re just going off yardage, Vereen is no better than any of the four stellar receivers you have. Plus, Patriot running backs don’t seem to last with Vereen the most tenured at three years. Now you’re at nine spots left and I’m more interested in some of your guys on defense but more on that in a second.

WR – I think it’s fair to keep all four of Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon and T.Y. Hilton. All four are their teams #1 target (or soon will be), all are just not PPR machines (which does you no good) but get big chunks of yardage. This one’s easy and takes you down to five spots.

TE – Jason Witten is the obvious choice but what about after that? You can only start two, at most, so I think keeping four is a waste. Furthermore, that second spot is a flex position with a wide receiver and I don’t think any of the three remaining tight ends will be better than any of your receivers. So we have to look for upside. Jason Witten isn’t getting any younger at 32 so youth is a priority. That’s why I eliminate Dennis Pitta. Pitta will be 29 entering 2014 and is a free agent which brings us Ladarius Green and Kyle Rudolph. Both will be 24 entering 2014 and offer huge upside. Rudolph has been woefully underused and hasn’t had a decent quarterback to catch balls from. With the addition of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator and, presumably, a quarterback in the draft, Rudolph will be in the best position of his career to be successful. However, if forced to pick one, I’m going with Ladarius Green. Green is the heir apparent to Antonio Gates in San Diego and has, possibly, the most talent of this entire group. As a rookie last year, Green averaged over 22 YPC. If Gates’ career with Philip Rivers provides any clues, Green (who is taller and faster), will have a few 1,000 yard and 10+ seasons. Witten and Green bring you to three left (by design).

DL – J.J. Watt. No further commentary required.

LB – You have two of the top five linebackers in Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner. Both are under 25 and play the middle linebacker position for very good defenses. Since you’re limited by the number of running backs and/or tight ends you can play and you need three linebackers / defensive backs, having Kuechly and Wagner on your team should give you an advantage at the position every week in your league. This gets you to the 15 you need.

There you have it. Imagine a lineup of Ryan/Stafford, AP, Lynch, Thomas, Gordon, Cobb, Witten and a defense that includes Watt, Kuechly, and Wagner? With dynasty prospects Lattimore, Ellington, and Green. I’m a fan.

Daily Dynasty Update – Super Bowl Edition

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Updated Dynasty Quarterback Rankings – February 2014

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Click here for the latest dynasty quarterback rankings.

  • Top five is unchanged with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford.
  • Eagles quarterback Nick Foles continues to climb, this month to eight. You wouldn’t think Foles stock could go any higher. However, it’s important to remember that Foles was not a Chip Kelly product so it’s not entirely unreasonable to think Kelly will want someone else down the road. But for now, Foles value will never be higher.
  • Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III continues his slide to #11. He’s officially in ‘buy low’ territory and should benefit from a health off-season and a new scheme that’s more pass friendly. 
  • On the other side, Redskins backup Kirk Cousins has moved up to 28th on the heels of RG3’s poor season but I’m not sure why. He had a 52% completion percentage in 2013 and a 4:7 TD:INT ratio. It appears cousins is still living off his rookie season. You shouldn’t though. 

Daily Dynasty Update – February 1st

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  • Fresh off the news that the Texans will most likely take a quarterback with the first pick, Jacksonville owner Shad Khan plans on taking a quarterback himself. Maybe two. If Khan (and the Texans) aren’t bluffing, Jadeveon Clowney’s stock could continue to slide. It also means a team has a wide open shot at trading up to the Rams at #2 to draft him. Stay tuned.
  • The tense relationship between the 49ers and running back LaMichael James appears to be coming to a head. James himself tweeted that ‘he’d rather be let go.’ It’s not a good sign for James as he never got past third string in the 49ers power running attack. He’d also have to deal with Marcus Lattimore’s impending debut.
  • Packers tight end Jermichael Finley should be cleared for contact in 3-4 weeks. It’s good news for Finley that he’s almost back in action. His destination in free agency will be another story. But for now, it looks like Finley is a hold.

Your Dynasty Question Answered, Part II

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boldenWe have another question from the audience. Nick asks about his roster and when cut time rolls around:
I am in a 12 man, PPR Dynasty League – and will need to cut my roster down to 17 players over the summer. I’ve begun thinking about who I might cut and was hoping to get your advice. By the time our rookie draft rolls around in August, my roster must be 17 players or less, including at least 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K, and 1DEF.
My team is listed below.
Wilson, Russell SEA QB
Bolden, Brandon NEP RB
Davis, Knile KCC RB
Ellington, Andre ARI RB
Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB
Miller, Lamar MIA RB
Pierce, Bernard BAL RB
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
Wilson, David NYG RB
Blackmon, Justin JAC WR
Dobson, Aaron NEP WR
Hartline, Brian MIA WR
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR
Johnson, Calvin DET WR
Moore, Denarius OAK WR
Randle, Rueben NYG WR
Cameron, Jordan CLE TE
Green, Ladarius SDC TE
Hauschka, Steven SEA PK
Rams, St. Louis STL Def
Titans, Tennessee TEN Def

Looks like a solid team so far, especially for a 12-team league. I’d kill to have guys like Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordan Cameron on the same team. Let’s see who needs to go to get from 22 down to 17.

  • First things first – the defenses. To me, this one is pretty easy. While both the Rams and Titans were middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed, the Rams were third in the league in sacks and led the league in forced fumbles. They have a good young corps with end Robert Quinn, linebacker Alec Ogletree and could draft another with one of their two first round picks. To top it off, they hired Gregg Williams, and his super aggressive scheme, to run the defense. Meanwhile, the Titans have a new coach, new defensive coordinator, new scheme and will have several new players. Cutting the Titans will get you down to 21.
  • The first skill position player I’d cut is running back Knile Davis of the Chiefs. Heading in to the season, Davis’ only value was as the primary backup to Jamaal Charles. Even in that position, he managed only 70 carries on the season and a 3.5 YPC. He also only caught 11 balls for 75 yards. Davis just didn’t flash anything that indicates he’ll be a dynasty contributor or starter in the NFL. He also had a reputation as a fumbler in college at Arkansas. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs draft or bring in a free agent to provide more spark behind Charles. The fact that you don’t already own Charles makes it even easier to let him go. This gets you down to 20.
  • The next cut I’d make is Brandon Bolden for New England. Bolden only saw action in 2013 when Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount couldn’t hold on to the ball. However, he didn’t show enough to make coach Bill Belicheck keep him in  there. Should Blount leave in the off-season, Bolden will still be only the backup in an offense not known for its commitment to the run. Besides Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (when healthy) there’s just no consistent options there. Running backs have a notoriously short shelf life and even more so in New England. In fact, the remaining New England backs have only been there since 2011 with Bolden due to hit free agency in 2015. Bolden is the least reliable option at this point and cutting him should get you to 19.
  • This is where it starts getting difficult because you’re making decisions on guys that are starting compared to those that aren’t but have the potential. For me, the next cut would be Lamar Miller of the Dolphins. Aside from playing in a complete circus, the Miami offense just wasn’t good and doesn’t project to be anytime soon. Miller himself took a step back from his rookie year in 2012, where he averaged 4.9 YPC to averaging a very average 4.0 YPC. Furthermore, according to any metric used by Pro Football Outsiders offensive line rankings, the Miami line just wasn’t good. Given, they had to replace two starters due to the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin incident, those are still two spots they’re going to have to replace this off-season. To me, we’ve seen what Miller is and it’s not very good. I would take the potential of Bernard Pierce in Gary Kubiak’s run-heavy system or even David Wilson’s explosiveness returning over Miller. This will get you down to 18.
  • Since we’ve picked on the running backs, let’s look at the other possible positions. Quarterback is a non-starter as you must keep at least one, so Russell Wilson it is. On the tight end front, you have two young, high-upside guys in Cameron and Green. Both will be ranked as TE1’s heading in to 2014 and I see no reason to cut either of them.
  • Which brings us to your strongest position: wide receiver. With proven entities like Calvin Johnson and Alshon Jeffery to high-upside guys like Justin Blackmon and Reuben Randle, you have a good mix in there. To me, it comes down to Brian Hartline or Denarius Moore. Since you’re in a PPR league, I’m going to lean towards cutting Moore. While Hartline is the second oldest of your receivers, he’s proven to be quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s safety valve and has racked up the catches in a poor offense. Furthermore, Hartline just signed a hefty extension and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, Moore has missed seven games in his three years in the league and hasn’t had more than 51 catches or 741 yards in any of those. He’ll also have competition for targets with the emergence of Andre Holmes down the stretch. Moore’s potential is greater but he has yet to cash it in. This cut gets you to 17.

There you have it. Not surprisingly, most of the cuts were at running back, the most replaceable position in dynasty and the NFL. No doubt you can use one of your first rounders on a running back. The only tough choice was whether to keep Hartline’s catches or Moore’s potential. Since this is a PPR league, I went with catches.

Don’t forget to submit your dynasty questions to dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com to see them answered here!