Dynasty Recap – Week 4 – Panthers 37, Buccaneers 23

Panthers

  • Cam Newton continues to produce despite the lack of talent around him. He had only 124 passing yards but had two touchdowns through the air plus another 51 yards rushing. I have seen the light and it’s Newton. He’s a bona fide, elite QB1 in dynasty.
  • The only other standout performance would be linebacker Thomas Davis with 11 tackles and one interception. He’s a solid LB1 option in IDP dynasty leagues and should have at least 2-3 years left.

Buccaneers

  • Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston was bad with 287 passing yards and two touchdowns but four interceptions. Winston has to cut down the turnovers if he’s going to be a QB1.
  • Doug Martin had a nice bounce back game with 106 yards and a touchdown plus five catches for 37 yards. It was his best game of the year but we’d like to see a few more games like this to make Martin a reliable RB2.
  • Veteran receiver Vincent Jackson had a huge day with 10 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. Jackson continues to be steady as a WR3 in dynasty leagues but you may want to sell high.
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Dynasty Recap – Week 12 – Bears upend Bucs, 21-13

  • Bucs quarterback continues to sling it around with 341 yards passing with one touchdown and two interceptions. He could be a decent streamer play but shouldn’t be counted on in dynasty.
  • Bears running back Matt Forte continues to put in an MVP season in fantasy circles with 89 yards rushing with two touchdowns to go along with five catches for 23 yards. He should challenge Charles for top running back in dynasty.
  • Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson had a good day with five catches for 117 yards. However, rookie Mike Evans is already the top target in Tampa so don’t go crazy.
  • Bucs linebacker Mason Foster was all over the field with eight tackles and a pass defended, his third on the season. Foster played like a solid LB2 today but his future in Tampa is dicey making his dynasty prospects bleak.

Dynasty Recap – Week 5 – Saints survive Buccaneers, 37-31

  • Saints quarterback Drew Brees slung it around for 371 yards, two touchdowns but three interceptions. Brees hasn’t found his rhythm this year which could mean the beginning of the end.
  • In, possibly, his last start for this year, Saints running back Khiry Robinson had 89 yards and a touchdown. Robinson is averaging more than five yards a carry this year and should be the primary back in New Orleans next year. Count him as a RB3 in dynasty leagues.
  • With rookie Mike Evans out, Tampa receiver Vincent Jackson broke out with eight catches for 144 yards. He should still be considered a WR2/3 in dynasty leagues.
  • Bucs linebacker Lavonte David continues to show why he’s a LB1 in dynasty formats with 14 tackles and a pass defended.

Your dynasty questions answered here, part XII

kaepernickAs always, email your dynasty questions to dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail(dot)com. On to the questions!

Ol Stylos asks,

I have Vernon Davis, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Matt Prater, Josh Gordon, Colin Kaepernick, and Jay Cutler and need to keep two. Who should they be?

First order of business is to cross Matt Prater off the list. Sorry, Matt.

Second, let’s break it down by position:

  • Quarterback – Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick – I think quarterback is a premium position and if you can get a good, young one you have to do it and Kaepernick fits the bill. At 26, he has a long shelf-life while the coaches should be taking the training wheels off this year. Reports have already hinted that Kaepernick will pass more thanks to the trade for Stevie Johnson and a healthy Michael Crabtree. He was already a top-1o fantasy quarterback last year and there’s no reason for him to regress. Meanwhile, Cutler is already 31 and while he might have the better fantasy offense, hasn’t played a full 16 games in five years. The choice is easy for me.
  • Wide Receiver – DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Josh Gordon – After a breakout year in 2013, Philadelphia released Jackson, allowing him to sign with the Redskins. The downgrade in offense is obvious combined with the fact that he might only be the third option in the passing game. Meanwhile, Vincent Jackson has quietly been a top fantasy receiver with five 1,000-yard seasons in six years with two different teams. He’s definitely the most accomplished of this group but that doesn’t necessarily translate to dynasty success going forward. Jackson, already 31, now has first round pick Mike Evans to compete with along with second round pick Austin Seferien-Jenkins. I could see another year or two of above average output from VJ but not much after. The real conundrum is what do you do with Josh Gordon? If Gordon were playing, he’s be your keeper, no questions asked. But with a looming suspension, possibly for a full year, I couldn’t justifying keeping him especially when you only have two spots. Which leaves…
  • Tight End – Vernon Davis. If you check out our dynasty wide receiver rankings, Davis is firmly entrenched as the 7th best tight end, higher than either Jackson and even Josh Gordon now while his offense, as noted above, is expected to pass more. Among the players available, Davis is the only one that could be considered elite and give you an advantage over most teams in your league.

So there you have it – we go all 49ers with Colin Kaepernick and Vernon Davis. I think you can get a quality receiver in your rookie draft to make up for the lack of a keeper but Kap and VD should keep you competitive for years to come.

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft, 2nd Edition

sankeyIt’s been a few weeks since the NFL draft and OTA’s are in full swing. Some rookies have made a big impression so far while others have yet to even see the field. However, with about three months until the season starts it’s time to start looking at where to take your rookies.

Below is the second edition of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Central, mock draft:

The rules are:

  • Two rounds
  • 12-teams
  • PPR (1.0 point per reception)
  • Four points per passing touchdown

We’ll look at where these players were taken in our initial, IDP draft for some comparisons.

1st Overall Pick – Sammy Watkins, WR – Buffalo Bills (Previous position: 1st overall) – Not much has changed on the Watkins front. Barring some positional needs in your draft, Watkins should be going first overall. His combination of ability and size are unmatched and his value shouldn’t be hindered by the quarterback position. Either Manual will progress now or Watkins can look for another quarterback later.

2nd Overall Pick – Mike Evans, WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: 2nd overall) – Evans ran in to a tough situation in Tampa where he’s surrounded by above average players at every skill position: Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, even fellow rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins. There’s also concern that Tampa will be a run-heavy team, taking away chances from Evans. But his talent is too tough to ignore at this point.

3rd Overall Pick – Bishop Sankey, RB  – Tennessee Titans (Previous position: 14th overall) – The first running back off the board, Sankey has come a long way since our first mock draft. Sankey is widely expected to be the only rookie starting in Week One due to no competition in Tennessee. Shonn Greene is recovering from knee surgery and Dexter McCluster is exclusively a receiving back. Jake Locker is his quarterback, for now, but that should change next year which can only improve his situation.

4th Overall Pick – Brandin Cooks, WR – New Orleans Saints (Previous position: 7th overall) – The Saints traded up for Cooks and plan to use him primarily in the slot. With Lance Moore and Darren Sproles gone, there’s a lot of targets to go around. Cooks is also only 20 which bodes well for his dynasty value. He’s a short, dynamo that will burn the turf in New Orleans.

5th Overall Pick – Eric Ebron, TE – Detroit Lions (Previous position: 3rd overall) – The first tight end off the board, Ebron has loads of talent but enters a crowded lineup. Not only will he compete for targets with Calvin Johnson but the Lions signed Golden Tate, re-signed tight end Brandon Pettigrew and have emerging tight end Joseph Fauria. In short, Ebron might struggle the first year but the situation should shake itself out by 2015. If Ebron can address the slight concern some have about his hands, he could be a top-tier tight end.

6th Overall Pick – Jordan Matthews, WR – Philadelphia Eagles (Previous position: 6th overall) – Picked exactly where he was last time and with good reason. Matthews enters a high-octane offense where he’s expected to immediately man the slot. Beyond this year, there’s no guarantee Jeremy Maclin will be back and Riley Cooper is an average talent. With Nick Foles and Chip Kelly around, Matthews should shine.

7th Overall Pick – Odell Beckham, Jr., WR – New York Giants (Previous position: 9th overall) – The third receiver taken in the NFL draft, ODB is the fifth receiver taken in this mock draft. Pro-ready, he steps in to the starting lineup in New York where the Giants offense is expected to go pass heavy. There is little competition for targets opposite Victor Cruz and Beckham should contribute right away.

8th Overall Pick – Marqise Lee, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous position: 11th overall) – Lee moves up a few spots from the last draft and should top out about here. He has good measurables but also gets points for getting the start early. He’s manning Justin Blackmon’s old spot on the outside where it was a productive spot despite shaky quarterback play. Lee isn’t as talented as Blackmon but should stay on the field.

9th Overall Pick – Jace Amaro, TE – New York Jets (Previous position: 10th overall) – Amaro will have the best chance of any rookie tight end to contribute early. With an improved offense in New York, Amaro could greatly benefit and provide some impact himself. Strictly a ‘move’ tight end, he will have to work on his blocking to become a truly top-end tight end  in dynasty leagues. But he is quite the receiver and should have the stats to show for it.

10th Overall Pick – Kelvin Benjamin, WR – Carolina Panthers – (Previous position: 15th overall) – Perhaps the most polarizing pick in rookie drafts, Benjamin has the makings of a WR1 but could just as easily be a bust. He does have a great quarterback to be on the receiving end of and will have plenty of targets his way. However, with little support surrounding him, it could be difficult for him to learn.

11th Overall Pick – Carlos Hyde, RB – San Francisco 49ers (Previous position: 8th overall) – Hyde was widely considered the top running back in the NFL draft and was scooped up by one of the top running teams in the league. The only thing holding Hyde’s dynasty value back is the crowded backfield in San Francisco. However, Frank Gore is a free agent after 2014, as is Kendall Hunter. Marcus Lattimore is not all the way back leaving the door wide open for Hyde.

12th Overall Pick – Jeremy Hill, RB – Cincinnati Bengals (Previous position: N/A) – Our first big jump is the current second stringer in Cincinnati. Hill is a pro-ready blocker which will probably lead to BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ being cut. He’ll be the inside / goal-line option to Giovani Bernard but won’t cut into Bernard’s value. If anything, he’s a high-floor, low-ceiling option at running back.

13th Overall Pick – Devonta Freeman, RB – Atlanta Falcons (Previous position: 24th overall) – Another big jump was Freeman by a whole round. Freeman has shown enough pass block/catch ability early on to warrant third down work in Atlanta. And with as much as Atlanta is expected to pass, that could be worth something. For dynasty purposes, the current starter, Steven Jackson, is on the wrong side of 30 and could be cut next year to save nearly $4 million in cap space. There’s little competition to challenge Freeman which should mean plenty of work.

14th Overall Pick – Johnny Manziel, QB – Cleveland Browns (Previous position: 17th overall) – The first quarterback taken in the mock draft, Manziel has a good shot to start early but could find himself short of a supporting cast. He’s got the arm and is mobile but his height brings in to question if he can take the beating. However, in an average quarterback class, Manziel could end up being the best of the bunch.

15th Overall Pick – Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Minnesota Vikings (Previous position: 12th overall) – Bridgewater drops a little bit but should still end up starting week one. He has a ton of talent surrounding him and Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. However, the concerns that made Bridgewater drop in the NFL draft need to be avoided in training camp before you take him in your rookie draft.

16th Overall Pick – Davante Adams, WR – Green Bay Packers (Previous position: 20th overall) – Adams moves up a bit thanks to more optimism that he’ll be able to contribute to the pass-heavy Packer offense. He led all of college football in receptions and touchdowns thanks to great hands and leaping ability. That should translate to the NFL. He’s currently fourth on the depth chart but Jordy Nelson is a free agent after 2014.

17th Overall Pick – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: 4th overall) – ASJ joins a suddenly deep roster of skill position players. He’ll easily pass 2013 surprise Tim Wright but will still be behind Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and maybe even Doug Martin. However, his talent should win out in the end.

18th Overall Pick – Cody Latimer, WR – Denver Broncos (Previous position: 22nd overall) – Latimer is big and has great hands and enters one of the best passing offenses in the league. However, he’ll start no higher than fourth on the depth chart for 2014. For 2015, Wes Welker will most likely be gone while Emmanuel Sanders could easily be cut. If Latimer could be the new Eric Decker in Denver, Latimer could flirt with WR1 status.

19th Overall Pick – Blake Bortles, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous position: 16th overall) – Bortles drops a bit thanks to Jacksonville’s insistence on sitting Bortles for most, if not all, of 2014. Bortles offers the most upside of the quarterbacks in this year’s class but has a lot of learning to do. He’s also surrounded by talented receivers which will make it easy to catch up. If you have a deep roster or taxi squad, Bortles could be an option.

20th Overall Pick – Ka’Deem Carey, RB – Chicago Bears (Previous position: N/A) – Carey will start the season as Matt Forte’s primary backup and should be able to take some of the load off. He didn’t have a great combine but did show a lot of ability in college. With Forte getting a year older, a long-term solution is needed in Chicago.

21st Overall Pick – Charles Sims, RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: N/A) – Sims has good pass catching ability and could get some work in early in Tampa. With Doug Martin in Tampa, Sims will probably never be a featured back but will have value in PPR leagues. However, Tampa may not be as pass-heavy as others so his ceiling is limited.

22nd Overall Pick – Tre Mason, RB – St. Louis Rams (Previous position: 23rd overall) – Mason doesn’t have the size or ability to be a featured back but could provide some change-of-pace for incumbent Zac Stacy. He does appear to have more talent than other Rams running backs Isaiah Pead and Benny Cunningham but could still struggle to find carries as a rookie. His ceiling and floor are pretty limited.

23rd Overall Pick – Terrance West, RB – Cleveland Browns (Previous position: N/A) – West has drawn comparisons to Alfred Morris thanks to his small school background and cutback ability. He also doesn’t face much competition even with the signing of Ben Tate after the Browns traded up for him. Tate is only on a two-year deal and the Browns have a young, good offensive line. He’s an ideal late second round pick that could even make an impact this year.

24th Overall Pick – Donte Moncrief, WR – Indianapolis Colts (Previous position: N/A) – Moncrief has the tools and ability to be a top-end receiver and after an impressive combine, landed in Indianapolis. Moncrief will be a good pick at the end of the second round of rookie dynasty drafts with Reggie Wayne close to retirement and Hakeem Nicks playing on a ‘prove it’ deal.

Dynasty Impact – Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Mike Evans, WR

NCAA Football: Southern Methodist at Texas A&MDynasty Impact: Mike Evans will play second fiddle to Vincent Jackson but should quickly surpass him on the depth chart. He fills out a very talented offense with running back Doug Martin and elevates quarterback Josh McCown in dynasty leagues for the foreseeable future. Don’t be surprised if they draft a quarterback for the future in later rounds but, for now, McCown is a great stopgap in dynasty leagues. Martin should also benefit with even more attention taken away. Jackson, along with tight end Tim Wright, lose some value after definitely losing targets to Evans.

Updated Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings – January 2014, 2.0

Click here for updated dynasty wide receiver rankings.

  • A new entry in the top five with Josh Gordon at #4. Gordon did a lot with little to work with on offense so anything should be an upgrade in 2014.
  • You can certainly see a trend in the biggest risers: the Bears Alshon Jeffery is up to 9th from 15th; Steeler Antonio Brown is up to 11th from 14th; Chargers rookie Keenan Allen makes the biggest leap to 15th from 24th; and the Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson to 17th from 21st. All are under the age of 26.
  • Drops include the Seahawks Percy Harvin from 9th to 12th primarily because he can’t seem to get on the field; Bucs Vincent Jackson goes from 20th to 26th since Lovie Smith was hired as coach; the enigma Hakeem Nicks drops from 23rd to 29th and could fall further depending on where he signs.