Tag Archives: dynasty fantasy football

Daily Dynasty Update – August 26th

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We’re getting closer and closer to the beginning of the season. Let’s see what’s happening down the final stretch.

  • It appears Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball are doing everything they can to NOT start at running back for Denver this year. Neither can pass protect and have had trouble holding on to the ball. Their stock should drop in dynasty drafts this week but Ball still makes a ton of sense long-term.
  • Rob Gronkowski is expected to play most, not all, of this season. However, at just 24, he’s still a top two tight end dynasty pick. The only hesitation would be his injury history, which is getting more  frequent. It’d be ideal to draft Gronk’s current backup, rookie Zach Sudfeld for insurance.
  • Rookie Mike James is officially the #3 running back in Tampa. He’s got some talent but is only worth a taxi squad spot at this point, especially if you have Doug Martin.
  • Oakland appears to be moving on from Matt Flynn and giving Terrelle Pryor a shot at quarterback. Pryor has flashes but, ultimately, won’t be the long-term answer. We fully expect Oakland to be in the mix for the top pick in the NFL draft in 2014 and could take one then.

That’s all for now. One more pre-season game to go.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 13th

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At least it’s not Monday?

  • The injury bug hit Jamaal Charles on Monday. He went down with a foot sprain but looks fine. The fantasy world probably won’t be comfortable until he sees game action.
  • Receiver DeSean Jackson looks like his old self in Philly camp. Currently ranked 44th in dynasty ranks, Jackson may be a tad undervalued at this point. The hope is to be a regular WR3 with a WR2 as his ceiling.
  • Second year receiver T.Y. Hilton says the game is slowing down for him. After a good pre-season opener, Hilton is in prime position to succeed this year and in the future with Andrew Luck at quarterback and Reggie Wayne close to retirement. Grab Hilton if he’s available.
  • Second year tight end Ladarius Green is looking good in San Diego. With Antonio Gates at 33, Green is in a prime position to take over the starting role but will need to have a good season.
  • Rookie tight end Gavin Escobar has been quiet so far in Dallas.  So far, he grades out as the worst blocking tight end this pre-season, according to Pro Football Focus. Not exactly a recipe for success. Escobar is no more than a taxi squad candidate at this point. He’d be even more valuable if Jason Witten is on your roster.
  • Third year receiver Jon Baldwin dropped a couple of passes during practice Sunday and has yet to stand out in Kansas City’s camp. It’s not inconceivable to imagine this might be Baldwin’s last chance to validate his first round status. Andy Reid does like to throw it around so Baldwin will have his chance.

Daily Dynasty Update – August 8th

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Almost ready for the first full week of pre-season. Let’s see what we got:

 

Daily Dynasty Football Update – August 1st

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  • Vernon Davis has taken snaps in the slot. This bodes well for everyone involved and firmly puts in Davis among the top five tight ends in dynasty rankings.
  • Pittsburgh is instituting a zone-blocking scheme in the run game which should pump up Le’Veon Bell’s numbers. Alfred Morris racked up 1,600 yards in the same scheme last year. Bell’s current 23rd dynasty ranking seems low and should shoot up soon. Grab him if you can.
  • Jamaal Charles is getting more looks in the passing game. As the story notes, under Andy Reid, his best running back, Brian Westbrook, had 50 catches for five straight years. Hopefully, Charles can hold off Father Time for a few years as he’s already at 27.
  • Julio Jones is getting better? Yikes.
  • E.J. Manual is looking good in camp as well. He should be the first rookie quarterback taken off your dynasty board due to the weapons, the opportunity, and the skill.
  • DeAndre Hopkins is projected to get 52-60 catches his rookie season. That’s a great floor to have as a dynasty prospect in his rookie year. Hopkins should be the second rookie receiver on your dynasty board.
  • The hope is St. Louis is Jared Cook finally becomes the receiving tight end stud he was supposed to be in Tennessee. In a tight end starved situation as dynasty fantasy football, Cook is a top-10 pick.
  • Colin McCarthy is practicing with the first unit again. McCarthy was supposed to be a dynasty linebacker stud last year but injuries cut that short. He currently sits at #24, due to those injuries, in our dynasty rankings with room for potential.
  • Patrick Willis will have an x-ray on his hand today. Willis has had similar injuries without missing any meaningful time but it gets amplified due to his age (28). Willis is currently at 5 in our dynasty rankings.
  • Michael Vick has taken the lead in Eagles camp with Nick Foles looking average. This will put a dent in Foles dynasty value and maybe increase Barkley’s.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has yet to practice with the first team in Minnesota. With one year of big-time college football under his belt, that’s to be expected. Patterson still has a lot of upside but don’t expect a lot, if anything, in year one.

That seems like a lot of ground covered. We’ll see what today has in store.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 31st

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It’s the last day of the month. Let’s see what we got:

Next month will be drafting time. Giddy up.

DFFC Coaching Series: Andy Reid

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by Jonathan Scott

Over the next few days we will be taking a look at the eight teams in the NFL that made coaching changes in the off-season and how that might affect the dynasty fantasy outlook of the offensive players on those teams. Numerous factors go into the success/failure of a team and coach but we’ll be primarily looking at just a few for each team. Murdering other people in the off season will not be one of those factors considered. The first coach we’ll look at is the most experienced – long time Eagles coach and new Chiefs coach Andy Reid.

PERSONNEL / X’s and O’s

Many things can be and have been said about Andy Reid but what can’t be argued is his offenses can produce. Reid has been a mastermind at putting his star players in a position to succeed. The best part is he’s position agnostic – quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs have all been the stars of his offensive attack. This year should be no different.

The star of this offense, for at least 2-3 years, should be Jamaal Charles. Reid should love the type of speed and versatility he brings. For years the Eagles were known as a screen heavy team in comparison to the rest of the league and there is every reason to think this team will be no different. Versatile running backs with good hands, vision, and speed as well as light, quick offensive lineman are necessary for the screen game to succeed in Kansas City and the good news is, well, we’re half-way there. Charles is the type of multi-dimensional back that can run between the tackles, bounce it off tackle for a home run, or be a heavy proponent in the passing game. Currently, Charles sits at #7 in dynasty rankings.

The offensive line, however, is a work in progress. Truth be told the only lineman even considered large is Geoff Schwartz weighing in at about 340. The rest of the line is light, athletic, and fits the mold Reid is looking for but are extremely young and lacking experience. With three linemen under the age of 24 and the oldest being former first round pick Brandon Albert at the age of 28, they are going to have to gel, and fast. If Andy Reid is as good at coaching lineman as his reputation states then this could be a top 15 offense for a few years. If they have trouble getting on the same page with Alex Smith (a notorious perfectionist who needs to trust what he sees) then this offense could have stagnant periods. With Rodney Hudson already being pushed for his starting spot at center after starting OTA’s and Training Camp as the starter, things aren’t off to a flying start.

Expect a pretty big year out of Dwayne Bowe as well. Reid has a penchant for using big, physical receivers in the way big, physical receivers should be used. Drags across the line of scrimmage, nine routes off tight coverage, and crossing routes letting them use their bodies to box out smaller DB’s. Not only does Bowe excel at these types of routes but Smith is excellent at the 15-18 yard dig/in cut and fade routes/deep balls. Smith will need a clean pocket and plenty of time to see the dragging receiver come across the line of scrimmage to make that throw accurately and on time. With this offensive line that may not be something that is afforded to him. Still, two out of three ain’t bad right? Bowe currently projects as the 15th top dynasty receiver.

As for the other receivers, Jonathan Baldwin has yet to prove he’s a viable wide receiver in the NFL despite having the physical traits scouts kill for. If he doesn’t do it this year I’m afraid he’ll never do it. Dexter McCluster could be fun for a gadget play here or there and a good third down option against safeties out of the slot but his lack of strength really limits his ceiling in this offense. I don’t expect any wide receiver to take a HUGE leap in this offense but if one does I would place my money on Donnie Avery. Injury history aside, with a competent coaching staff and a clean bill of health he has shown in the past he can at least be a contributor. He offers the one thing no one else on this roster can which is straight line, take the top off the offense speed if played tight on the line of scrimmage. He’ll play a role one way or another on this team. If anything take a flyer on him and, if he stays healthy for four or five weeks and puts up numbers, immediately flip him for an asset or pick. Let’s face, Avery will get hurt at some point. Currently, there are no other Chief receivers in the top 70.

At tight end there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Fasano is the obvious in line guy with blocking duties and occasional bootleg action on the goal line but expecting anything more. The real “battle” here is between Travis Kelce and Tony Moeaki. With the trade rumors floating around Moeaki you have to think his days are numbered. Between his sketchy health (had another knee surgery this off season) and a ready-made, younger, cheaper replacement already in house, I’d be willing to bet he gets traded. If you’re going to take a chance on someone here make it Kelce but really, if you’re taking chances on a Kansas City tight end you get what you deserve. Kelce is currently the 18th ranked tight end in dynasty ranks due to this age and the clear path to starting.

THE WILD CARD

Alex Smith, although not an uber-talented quarterback, has a skill set that Andy Reid values and can use to make the offense function. And the key word here is function.  Without being disrespectful to the other quarterbacks that have played under Reid, I believe it’s safe to say Smith is going to be the smartest one he’s had and have the fullest grasp of the playbook that any of them has had. People will line up in the correct places, check with me’s will be a big part of the offense and, 99 percent of the time, Smith will make the right audible and get them in the right play. Despite that I want to stress there is a HUGE difference between grasping the entire playbook and being able to execute the entire playbook. Smith will not be able to throw from far hashes to the far sideline and he won’t be able to hit deep plays longer than 60 yards. His arm shrinks the field for the defense without them having to try to do it themselves. Luckily the one way to stop a defense from squatting on a quarterback with a below average arm is get them on the move with bootlegs and counters. Smith is an extremely athletic quarterback and insanely accurate outside the pocket who can keep a defense honest by utilizing these skills. When the Chiefs offense has the ball between the 20’s I would expect a lot of screen action and bootleg action to generate wide open receivers down field that Smith can hit with ease. The flip side is Smith is notorious for holding onto the ball too long in the pocket and taking unnecessary sacks instead of getting rid of the ball. He is a tough guy who can take a hit but he also refuses to take a risk when pressured. Smith currently stands at 27th quarterback dynasty ranks. He’s only under contact for two more years with rookie Tyler Bray quietly climbing the depth chart.

This doesn’t sound like a lot to be excited about but we are taking a non-functional quarterback and coaching staff in Kansas City in 2011 and replacing them with above average representations for both. This should equal a big boost in numbers and opportunities for Charles, Bowe, and the other starved Chiefs skill position players. A jump from the 32nd offense in the league to the 18th offense in the league is still the same relative jump from the 18th offense to a top 5 offense.

CONCLUSION

I think of all of the coaches hired this year Andy Reid will have the biggest positive impact fantasy-wise. He has big play options at running back and receiver with that fit his style and offense. I expect a big season out of Charles and would target him as a RB1 option if he just happens to be available for trade in your dynasty league. Bowe finally got paid and looks to be happy. By all accounts he’s also a hard worker who takes pride in his craft. He continues to be a low tier WR1 or high tier WR2 in my eyes. The offensive line, although not perfect, is athletic enough to execute the type of blocking scheme and second level attacking that Reid loves in his offense and should get better as the year goes on with the youth they have. He’s also getting a substantial upgrade at quarterback in Alex Smith, a relatively weak division with the AFC West (Hello Chargers and Raiders!), and a team that already has six Pro Bowlers on the roster, albeit mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Add it all up and it’s easy to see the Chiefs going from an absolute train wreck of an offense last year to a middle of the pack, respectable offense in 2013.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 29th

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Training camp is kicking into high gear. Let’s see what we got:

  • Of course, the season-ending injuries to Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta were the big stories. We looked at what they mean, fantasy-wise, here.
  • Vance McDonald looks to get a good look in the pre-season to determine what his role will be early on. We looked at McDonald’s long-term prospects here. With a good, young offense and the mentoring of one of the best, the situation is ideal for McDonald to become an asset in dynasty leagues.
  • Kevin Kolb got more first-string snaps early on but E.J. Manual had his share. He’ll be given every opportunity to win the job so draft accordingly.
  • Jake Locker looked shaky in the beginning of camp but has picked it up. With a finite supply of starting quarterbacks, this is good news for those forced to roll with Locker as a backup.
  • Zach Ertz is also off to a good start. While, at first glance, it didn’t look like there’d be a place for Ertz, his receiving ability is too good to ignore. And with the same finite options as quarterback, drafting a quality tight end with promise is crucial. Ertz is a full-go in dynasty leagues.

Remember, if you’re able to read this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part I

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The latest wide receiver dynasty rankings show only three rookies in the top 40. These three were also, not coincidentally, drafted in the first round. The logic is if real NFL teams thought this highly of them, dynasty leagues should too. Let’s take a look.

  • Tavon Austin (STL) – The eight overall pick from West Virginia comes in with the most hype and the most intrigue. After Austin ran a 4.34 40 at the combine and St. Louis trading their 1st, 2nd, 3rd (getting a 3rd in return), and 7th round pick in a Madden-like move, reports indicated coach Jeff Fisher planned to use Austin all over the place. Even in the backfield a la Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb! He’s got a good, young quarterback throwing him the ball in Sam Bradford and, at the moment, is the man. On paper, it looked like everything was coming up Milhouse. But look a little closer and there are some concerns. First, the height. Of the top 20 receivers in yardage last year, none were the same as Austin’s 5′ 8″ and only two were 5′ 9″. The rest were 5′ 10″ and above with more than half 6′ or more. It’s extremely difficult to win match ups if you’re the shortest guy on the field. Secondly, the latest reports has St. Louis using a ‘spread the wealth‘ system a la the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Drew Brees has averaged 620 pass attempts while completing 67% of his passes since getting to New Orleans in 2007. To date, the most passes Bradford has attempted has been 590 and the best percentage he had was 60%. By Brees’ third full season in the league, he was up to 65%. Furthermore, the best receiving season that was a product of the ‘spread the wealth’ system in New Orleans was Jimmy Graham and his ridiculous 99/1310/11 2012 season which, one could argue, is a result of his freakish 6′ 7″ frame and the matchup problems that ensue. For the record, 1,310 yards would have been good for 11th in the league last year. And this is the ceiling. The bottom line is Austin will be a good pick and has tremendous upside potential (TUP – it’s a thing, look it up). But exercise caution at Austin’s limitations. If you’re able to draft him early in your rookie dynasty drafts, I think you should. He’s definitely worth more than any of the quarterbacks and possibly most of the running backs out there simply because he’s a receiver in an offense that’s committed to him. But don’t mortgage the farm and give up proven assets. Austin is currently ranked 24th in our dynasty wide receiver ranks.
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) – My personal favorite from this first batch is Hopkins who was drafted 27th overall by Houston. Hopkins is just the 4th offense player drafted in the first round by the Texans and the first receiver since the man he’s been groomed to replace, Andre Johnson. At 32, Johnson seemed to be on the downslope of his career but bounced back with a 112/1598/4 line last year. Houston surely doesn’t expect Johnson to keep that up heading into his mid-30’s so neither should dynasty leaguers. Thus the pick of Hopkins. It’s hard to find a negative report about Hopkins after running with the first team in OTA’s, being compared to Rod Smith (and his 8-1,000 yard seasons), and being labeled as ‘special. The only drawback is the level of passing we can expect from Houston. Per TeamRankings.com, they ranked 24th last year in percentage of pass plays and 31st the  year before. Of course, those could change on a dime as evidenced by Houston ranking 11th in pass plays percentage in 2010 and 9th in 2009. Worst-case scenario is Hopkins finally gives Houston a second option in the pass game while they tap the break on the run plays. Best case is he develops into the next Andre Johnson and learns from the man himself. While Austin may edge Hopkins out because of the immediate impact, I wouldn’t lose sleep if I ended up with Hopkins. Hopkins is 30th in our wide receiver ranks.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) – Patterson is the most raw of the bunch after spending one season in D-1. Minnesota ended up trading a Tavon Austin-style package (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to New England to get him. Build-wise he stands at 6′ 2″ and 220 pounds and put on quite a show at the combine with a 4.42 40-time and 37″ vertical. The potential is sky high but that’s all we have at this point. Luckily, Minnesota does plan on easing Patterson into the system so there’s time for Patterson to pick it up. He also gets to learn from one of the game’s best route runners in Greg Jennings and have the best running back in the game to take the attention off. It’s a great situation for such a raw talent like Patterson. Now the downside. His quarterback is Christian Ponder who might, or might not, be around for the long term will need to step it up for Minnesota to get Patterson’s full potential. No more 18/12 TD:INT seasons. Either Ponder improves or Minnesota drafts or signs an upgrade but the status quo won’t work. Of course, this could all be for not and Patterson could be a giant bust. For dynasty purposes, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on Patterson but would much rather get a runner or even a tight end like Tyler Eifert. I might even consider linebackers if you’re in a dynasty IDP league. But don’t sleep on Patterson if he starts to slip. He sits at 32 in our rankings.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here. Fort Part IV click here.

Why are safeties are better than corners in fantasy?

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Looking at the latest DB rankings for dynasty, you’ll see safeties take the top 1o spots. This is similar to the DL rankings that put ends at the top of the list over interior linemen.  But why is that?

If you were to look at the top tackling DB’s last year, you’d find a safety-heavy list with only three corners in the top 20. In fact, there’s no more than four corners in the top 20 for years and there were none in 2009. The fact is, tackles are the most consistent stats when looking at DB’s so it’s best to rank them by that. Plus, even if tackles are 1 point in your league while interceptions are 4, you’d still be better served drafting a tackling machine like Morgan Burnett who’s had 230 tackles over the last two years. Tackles are just more common than interceptions and happen at a higher ratio than the tackle/interception point ratio in most, if not all, dynasty leagues.

But why do safeties have way more tackles? Inherently, they’re the safety valve of the defense. They are there to prevent plays from going 10, 15, 20 yards. Corners, good corners anyway, are there to prevent the receivers from even catching the ball. That’s why corners will never have high tackle numbers if they’re picking passes off. The top six leaders in interceptions last year had 60-76-64-55-76-53 tackles respectively. Plus, corners are relegated to one side of the field while the safeties cover much more ground on any given play. They’re instinctively playing the ball while the corners have specific assignments.

Bottom line – get a safety as your DB1. Only if you’ve got that locked up would I even consider drafting a corner.

Dynasty Linebacker Rankings – Top Tier

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After just calculating the amalgamated linebacker rankings, it’s clear there’s a top tier of five. Luke Kuechly of Carolina is the consensus #1 no matter what rankings you’re looking at. The combination of his age (22) and the fact that he’ll be a three-down back on a pretty bad team means he should see plenty of opportunities to be right in the action for many years to come.

The next two spots are interchangeable and include San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman and St. Louis’ James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis is another three-down back playing the middle. He seemingly had his hands on everything – four passes defended, two interceptions and 117 solo tackles to go with 25 assists. The guy is a beast and is only ranked lower than Kuechly because of his age (26). The same could be said of Bowman who actually had more total tackles than Laurinaitis (148-142), more sacks (2.0-0.5), more passes defended (6-4). He’s also a year younger (25-26). If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick one, I’d go with Bowman.

The next two include Seattle’s Bobby Wagner, with a similar resume than Laurinaitis and Bowman but is just 23.

Next is the first outside linebacker of the group, Lavonte David. The second year linebacker from Tampa Bay is just 23 and has the potential to rack up sacks with 19 tackles for a loss in his rookie season.

Bottom line is you can’t go wrong if one of these guys is your lead LB for the next five years.