2013 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Big Board – Round 1 (1st Edition)

The time is (almost) here. Your dynasty fantasy football draft. Where you can finally put all your Madden Franchise mode skills to use. Unlike re-drafts, where the choices are obvious, you’re playing GM to your very own franchise. You have to take into account need, potential, opportunity and, most of all, skill. Let’s see who DFFC would take in an IDP, 12-team PPR league:

Round 1, Pick 1 – RB-Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – After finishing 26th in rushing, Pittsburgh needed an injection of talent in the running game. After long-time incumbent Rashard Mendenhall moved on Pittsburgh determined that holdovers Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are not suited for the top spot. Enter Bell. At 6′ 1″ and 230 pounds, the Michigan State product can be a punishing runner. Pittsburgh is also implementing a zone-blocking scheme along the lines of Mike Shanahan’s offenses in Denver and now Washington that will allow Bell to see the holes created by his lineman and strike where convenient. Bell is already penciled in as the starter and has a chance to become the rare rookie that contributes both now and later.

Round 1, Pick 2 – RB-Eddie Lacy (GB) – The Bruiser from ‘Bama was thought to be the top running back in the NFL draft but fell to 61 and Green Bay. With little (to no) competition, Lacy has been able to establish his starter status after some impressive practicesBecoming what New Orleans had hoped for fellow ‘Bama running back Mark Ingram appears to be the goal – someone who can convert the 3rd and 1, 1st and Goal, etc. However, there are some real concerns with Lacy’s long-term health which caused several teams to refrain from taking him in the NFL draft. Lacy’s doctors insist he’ll be ok but it’s still something to watch. If healthy, Lacy will be a fine compliment to the passing attack of Aaron Rodgers and co. He, like Bell, has a chance to be a contributor very early in his career.

Round 1, Pick 3 – RB-Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back taken in the draft, Bernard is probably the most explosive. He’s being compared to Ray Rice thanks to his short stature but big build and versatility. He’s so versatile the Bengals even have him lining out wide. Skill-wise he’s set but it’s all about opportunity. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was signed in 2012 to a three-year contract. He could aways be cut earlier but chances are they’ll let his contact run out after 2014 and block Bernard’s path to an everyday role. The hope is Green-Ellis falls flat and they turn the ball over to Bernard sooner than expected. At the moment, he’s a RB3, at best, but could be up to RB1 by the end of the season.

Round 1, Pick 4 – RB-Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted in the second round out of Wisconsin, Ball was probably the most experienced of the running back class after almost 1,000 attempts in college. He entered a high-powered offense but a crowded backfield. Knowshon Moreno has had four years to show he’s not the long-term answer but Denver will still use him sparingly. It’s Ronnie Hillman that’s blocking Ball’s path to fantasy greatness. Hillman was drafted in the 3rd round of last year’s draft and has ‘earned’ the starting spot. He’s currently the 1A to Ball’s 1B which sounds eerily familiar to Coach John Fox’s last team where the Panthers refused to favor one of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Fantasy owners don’t need to be reminded of that hot mess. It’s ok to draft Ball but don’t expect a workhorse role for at least a year.

Round 1, Pick 5 – WR – DeAndre Hopkins – In the first upset of the first round, I have Houston first round pick DeAndre Hopkins as the first receiver off the board. At 6′ 1″ and 214 pounds, Hopkins fits the mold more as a long-term receiver than Tavon Austin. Drafted by Houston, he was the immediate favorite for the ‘Z’ position and has not disappointed. He had a fantastic week of camp, including a 40-yard bomb, and has already established the trust of the coaching staff. There is no one to challenge him as the heir apparent and he’ll get the benefit of learning from one of the best (very Terrell Owens-esque). He’s already slated for at least 50 catches his rookie year with that number sure to grow. Grab him early, grab him often.

Round 1, Pick 6 – TE-Tyler Eifert (CIN) – With more NFL offenses utilizing their tight ends as receivers, expect more rookie tight ends to be drafted higher.  Tyler Eifert, drafted in the first round in 2013 is first up. Even though Cincinnati had an established tight end, and not necessarily a bad one, they still opted to draft the Notre Dame product. He’s lining up wide and catching passes in traffic which is music to dynasty fantasy owners ears. And with the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski going in the first or second rounds of drafts, Eifert could be right up there with them and soon. There’s no doubt that tight end is the position with the most disparity between first and worst. If you can grab a difference maker, you take him. Eifert could be that.

Round 1, Pick 7 – WR-Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) – Who? Exactly. Thompkins went undrafted this year and only earned a spot because of the massive upheaval in New England’s receiving corps. But boy is he making it count. Not only is a vertical threat but has shown signs of being a possession receiver as well. Of course, it always helps when you’re on the same page as Tom Brady. Brady threw the ball 637 times last year and with four of his top five receivers gone, the competition for targets is wide open. Thompkins has been the most impressive so far. Impress your friends and take him.

Round 1, Pick 8 – RB-Christine Michael (SEA) – Michael’s the first player off the board not walking into an obviously advantageous position but he could be thrown into one soon. Michael was a first round talent but fell to the second due to off-field issues. His tough, explosive running style is an ideal fit in Seattle and not that much different from incumbent Marshawn Lynch. But Lynch has his own off-field issues to deal with which could propel Michael to the starting lineup. Current backup Robert Turbin is just now getting back on the field so if Michael continues to impress, this first-round talent could be the recipient of Seattle’s powerful running game. The upside is huge.

Round 1, Pick 9 – WR-Tavon Austin (STL) – The highest receiver drafted at #8 overall, Austin is going to be a ping-pong ball and bounce all over the place. Out wide, in the slot, in the backfield. It’s just a shame he’s heading into an offense of such uncertainty. Sam Bradford is in a make-or-break year, they appear to have full-blown RBBC on their hands and there’s no skill position players coming back to estabslish some sort of consistency after the departure of Steven Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, he’s justified his draft position. But throw in the fact that Brian Schottenheimer is his OC, he of the almost 500 rush attempts last year, and the passing game is even murkier. Austin is a talent but doesn’t enter the best situation. And at this point, opportunity is half the battle.

Round 1, Pick 10 – QB-E.J. Manuel (BUF) – The first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, Manuel should also be the first quarterback off dynasty fantasy boards. Manuel is a big boy at 6′ 5″ and 230 pounds. He’s the captain of the rebuilding effort of the Buffalo franchise and should be given plenty of opportunities. Just the fact that he’ll be the starter in Buffalo at a minimum of 2-3 years props up his value since there’s only a finite number of starting quarterbacks in fantasy. His weapons are an asset as well as Buffalo has surrounded him with rookie receivers Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Da’Rick Rogers and rookie tight end Chris Gragg. Throw in all-world running back C.J. Spiller and perennial 1,000 yard receiver Stevie Johnson and Manuel has no excuses. We’ll have to wait and see him in game action to determine if he’ll be a fantasy starter in years to come but Manuel is definitely in the right place in the right time.

Round 1, Pick 11 – TE-Zach Ertz (PHI) – Drafted in the second round, Ertz looked as if he walked into a less than ideal fantasy situation. New Philly coach Chip Kelly had been a run-first coach at Oregon and there were already two tight ends in front of him. Incumbent Brent Celek and free agent James Casey. Originally, Celek would have been the in-line tight end with Casey as the ‘move.’ However, Ertz has earned first-team reps in practice and is now predicted to have more catches and yards than either of the other two Philly tight ends after impressing the team. As with Eifert and Manuel, Ertz plays a position with a finite amount of quality players. Don’t be afraid to draft Ertz.

Round 1, Pick 12 – WR-Markus Wheaton (PIT) – Drafted in the 3rd round, Wheaton is the heir apparent to the departed Mike Wallace. However, he’s also been drawing comparisons to Hines Ward. Physically, both don’t/didn’t stand out but Wheaton has shown the ability to go over the middle and catch balls in traffic (at least in camp)Then comes the good news that Wheaton is already practicing with the first team and lining up in the slot or the outsideUsing Ward as a comp, I don’t think anyone would be disappointed in a guy with six 80+ receptions/1,000 yard seasons. His status may be murky this year but shouldn’t be after that.

Click here for a mock round two and be sure to follow us on twitter for your daily dynasty update!

Daily Dynasty Update – August 8th

Almost ready for the first full week of pre-season. Let’s see what we got:

 

Daily Dynasty Update – August 7th

Let’s get it on.

  • Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman are still splitting carries with the first team in Denver.  I still don’t buy the Montee Ball hype – he’s in a RBBC and his coach is notorious for using multiple backs.
  • Mark Ingram is looking good in New Orleans. He’s done nothing in his career to unseat Pierre Thomas but maybe this is the year.
  • Another breakout candidate is Michael Floyd from Arizona. He is officially the #2 receiver in the desert. With an upgrade at quarterback, the chances will be there.
  • Mychal Kendricks is poised to be a big part of the defense in Philadelphia this season. The second-year linebacker should be going at the quarterback more which is good for sacks. Kendricks is currently 18th in dynasty linebacker ranks.
  • A.J. Jenkins (finally) had a good day in camp for San Francisco. There isn’t much competition at receiver in San Francisco so the door is open.
  • Justin Blackmon is still hurt and probably won’t play on Friday for Jacksonville. So much talent, so little production.
  • Bryce Brown may fumble the #2 spot behind LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia. He dropped three passes today and the knock is his hesitancy to run between the tackles.

Remember, if you’re able to see this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part III

Six backs were selected in the fifth round of the 2013 NFL draft. All would be considered sleepers in dynasty fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look:

  • Denard Robinson (JAC) – Originally a quarterback at Michigan, Robinson was drafted 135th overall. Truly a jack of all trades, it seems as if Robinson’s speed is probably best suited at running back seeing as he ran a 4.34 unofficial 40-time at the combine. He grew into the role in rookie camp but it still adjusting after dropping a pass and fumbling a handoffRobinson would be the #3 running back on the depth chart and should be stashed by all MJD owners in the event his contract isn’t renewed.
  • Stepfan Taylor (ARI) – Drafted 140th overall out of Stanford, Taylor currently sits behind Rashard Mendendhall and Ryan Williams on the depth chart. With coach Bruce Arians already calling the running back race for 26-year old Mendenhall, and the team sticking by 23-year old Ryan Williamsthere doesn’t seem to be a clear path for Taylor. In addition, thanks to the NFL’s graduation rules, Taylor is also starting behind the other backs. Only draft Taylor if you have either Mendenhall or Williams on your current roster.
  • Joseph Randle (DAL) – Drafted 151st overall by Dallas, Randle has already been anointed the backup to DeMarco Murray and expected to carry the load, should it come to that. Randle is still recovering from thumb surgery but should be ready to go. While nothing special in college, the fact that he’s backing up one of the most brittle. Additionally, Randle now becomes a part of the revolving door of Dallas running backs which has had four different leading rushers in 7 years. This could be a gift and a curse for Randle but, for now, don’t pin your hopes on him.
  • Chris Thompson (WAS) – Going 154th overall to Washington, Thompson is a massive unknown. He broke his back and college and tore his ACL in consecutive years at Florida State. But Washington feels like he can do it all. At the moment, there’s a pileup in the Washington backfield but Thompson is one to remember simply because Shanahan is so unpredictable. After all, incumbent Alfred Morris was drafted in the 6th round.
  • Zac Stacy (STL) – St. Louis traded up to 160 to pick Stacy out of Vanderbilt after averaging 5.5 YPC on over 200 carries in the tough SEC last year. Stacy proved he can handle the load there but will have to compete with Daryl Richardson (23) and Isiah Pead (23).  Richardson is projected as the starter after averaging 4.8 YPC on about 100 carries in his rookie year. However, coach Jeff Fisher indicated he’s not opposed to a running back by committee approachStacy is talented but will have to beat two young, good players first to get noticed.
  • Mike Gillislee (MIA) – Picked 164th out of Florida, Gillislee was nothing special coming out of the draft with the look of a long-time backup. He’s also not caught up to number two Daniel Thomas as of yet and would start the season as the third running back if it started today. Gillislee is off the dynasty radar at the moment unless you’re a concered Lamar Miller owner.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 26th

Giddy up:

  • Surprising news from Seattle where Percy Harvin severely injured his hip while training which could knock him out for the year. If so, this would be the second consecutive year and significantly damage his current #7 ranking among dynasty receivers. As for the rest of Seattle’s offense, they did pretty good without Harvin last year so I don’t see a dramatic effect on their production.
  • Ronnie Hillman opened camp as the starter with Montee Ball also practicing with the first team. I still don’t think that picture gets any clearer this season and could see a hot-hand approach and that’s not including Knowshon Moreno in the mix. Don’t draft Ball expecting to get a dynasty franchise back.
  • Santonio Holmes might not be ready for Week 1. AVOID!
  • Arian Foster is starting camp on the PUP list. Not a huge surprise but just another nick that Foster has to deal with. His half a yard drop in YPC the last three years is more of a concern for me. Still just 26, it’s hard to say how much longer Foster will be at the top of draft boards. He’s still a top five option in dynasty rankings but Foster fantasy owners need to check in the availability of Ben Tate ASAP.

 

Dynasty Fantasy Football Analysis -Rookie Quarterbacks

While rookie quarterbacks are rarely valued in re-draft fantasy leagues, in dynasty fantasy leagues they’re valued just as much as the real NFL. In 2012, we were spoiled with, not one but, two franchise quarterbacks entering the league in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. 2013 doesn’t afford the same quality at the top but does have a few options further down the list.

  • EJ Manuel (BUF) – The first quarterback taken off the board in the 2013 draft, Manuel was a surprise pick for Buffalo. For fantasy purposes, he shows the most promise for an early return. He has a superior runner in CJ Spiller and quality receiving target in Stevie Johnson. At worst, Manuel has the second easiest path to starting. Kevin Kolb currently sits atop the Bills depth chart but him and Manuel recently split snaps at mini-camp. Additionally, Kolb has yet to start more than 9 times in a season due to injuries and general ineffectiveness. If Manual, who has two inches and 20 pounds on Kolb, shows any promise in training camp, Buffalo will start him early. He didn’t get drafted to sit. His dynasty prospects are a little murkier only because of the many unknowns. Buffalo has had a complete regime change from the top down that should buy Manual time to develop. Only time will tell if first-year general manager Doug Whaley and first year coach Doug Marrone can provide a strong environment
  • Geno Smith (NYJ) – Smith was largely perceived to be the first quarterback taken in the draft but fell to the Jets in the second round. Smith definitely put up the numbers of a first round pick at West Virginia but was still not as accurate as scouts had hoped. While it certainly wouldn’t take much to unseat Mark Sanchez, the fact is Smith has done nothing to give the Jets any reason to even consider starting Smith. Furthermore, Smith’s development doesn’t appear to be a priority of the Jets coaching staff. Last year, Mike Shananhan purposely blended the pro playbook with RG3’s college playbook in an effort to east the transition. The Jets have no such plans. Yikes. Smith certainly doesn’t warrant a high pick in dynasty leagues.
  • Matt Barkley (PHI) – No prospect fell further from before the 2012 season than Barkley. Originally thought to go first overall before opening 2012, Barkley fell to the fourth round and Philadelphia. Once there, he immediately was penciled in behind Mike Vick and Nick Foles. It’s not hard to realize Vick (33) won’t be an Eagle much longer (possibly sooner rather than later) but Nick Foles still looms. Just 24, Foles still has three years left on his rookie contract and is giving Vick a run for his money on the starting job. Still, there’s something to be said for being picked by the new coach and Barkley has impressed in OTA’s.  Barkley probably won’t contribute this year but is worth a stash in dynasty leagues, especially taxi squads.
  • Tyler Wilson (OAK) – One of the likelier rookies to see playing time early is Wilson. Early reports out of Oakland mini-camp have Wilson impressing. Of course, he’ll need to keep that up in live action but it shouldn’t be difficult to force his way in the conversation. With Terrell Pryor unimpressive so far and Matt Flynn getting balls batted down in non-contact drillsit’s not inconceivable that Wilson gets started early. Long-term, however, his chances of sticking around in Oakland aren’t great. Unless Dennis Allen can improve on his 4-12 debut, and there have been no personnel changes to suggest otherwise, the Raiders will be bad again. The badder they are, the higher in the draft they’ll go and increase their chances of drafting a franchise quarterback (hello Teddy Bridgewater). Truly, the only person that can help Tyler Wilson’s dynasty value is Tyler Wilson. He’d be another taxi squad candidate with a decent chance to start this year.
  • Mike Glennon (TB) – Perhaps the most intriguing prospect of this year’s class, Glennon could create a perfect storm for himself to take over in Tampa. At 6′ 7″ with a huge arm, Glennon has the physical tools to be a starter with NFL Matchup’s Greg Cosell even comparing Glennon to Matt Ryan as a prospect. He can make the throws  and will be given the opportunity to make an impression in pre-season. It all falls on incumbent Josh Freeman to stick around after his rookie contract expires this year. Freeman has been uneven with seasons of 25 and 27 touchdowns but also seasons of 17, 18, and 22 interceptions, sometimes in the same year. Freeman will need a great year to warrant an extension. The bottom line is Tampa has the weapons to make either quarterback successful. It would be worth a mid-level pick to invest in Glennon.