Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft, 2nd Edition

sankeyIt’s been a few weeks since the NFL draft and OTA’s are in full swing. Some rookies have made a big impression so far while others have yet to even see the field. However, with about three months until the season starts it’s time to start looking at where to take your rookies.

Below is the second edition of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Central, mock draft:

The rules are:

  • Two rounds
  • 12-teams
  • PPR (1.0 point per reception)
  • Four points per passing touchdown

We’ll look at where these players were taken in our initial, IDP draft for some comparisons.

1st Overall Pick – Sammy Watkins, WR – Buffalo Bills (Previous position: 1st overall) – Not much has changed on the Watkins front. Barring some positional needs in your draft, Watkins should be going first overall. His combination of ability and size are unmatched and his value shouldn’t be hindered by the quarterback position. Either Manual will progress now or Watkins can look for another quarterback later.

2nd Overall Pick – Mike Evans, WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: 2nd overall) – Evans ran in to a tough situation in Tampa where he’s surrounded by above average players at every skill position: Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, even fellow rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins. There’s also concern that Tampa will be a run-heavy team, taking away chances from Evans. But his talent is too tough to ignore at this point.

3rd Overall Pick – Bishop Sankey, RB  – Tennessee Titans (Previous position: 14th overall) – The first running back off the board, Sankey has come a long way since our first mock draft. Sankey is widely expected to be the only rookie starting in Week One due to no competition in Tennessee. Shonn Greene is recovering from knee surgery and Dexter McCluster is exclusively a receiving back. Jake Locker is his quarterback, for now, but that should change next year which can only improve his situation.

4th Overall Pick – Brandin Cooks, WR – New Orleans Saints (Previous position: 7th overall) – The Saints traded up for Cooks and plan to use him primarily in the slot. With Lance Moore and Darren Sproles gone, there’s a lot of targets to go around. Cooks is also only 20 which bodes well for his dynasty value. He’s a short, dynamo that will burn the turf in New Orleans.

5th Overall Pick – Eric Ebron, TE – Detroit Lions (Previous position: 3rd overall) – The first tight end off the board, Ebron has loads of talent but enters a crowded lineup. Not only will he compete for targets with Calvin Johnson but the Lions signed Golden Tate, re-signed tight end Brandon Pettigrew and have emerging tight end Joseph Fauria. In short, Ebron might struggle the first year but the situation should shake itself out by 2015. If Ebron can address the slight concern some have about his hands, he could be a top-tier tight end.

6th Overall Pick – Jordan Matthews, WR – Philadelphia Eagles (Previous position: 6th overall) – Picked exactly where he was last time and with good reason. Matthews enters a high-octane offense where he’s expected to immediately man the slot. Beyond this year, there’s no guarantee Jeremy Maclin will be back and Riley Cooper is an average talent. With Nick Foles and Chip Kelly around, Matthews should shine.

7th Overall Pick – Odell Beckham, Jr., WR – New York Giants (Previous position: 9th overall) – The third receiver taken in the NFL draft, ODB is the fifth receiver taken in this mock draft. Pro-ready, he steps in to the starting lineup in New York where the Giants offense is expected to go pass heavy. There is little competition for targets opposite Victor Cruz and Beckham should contribute right away.

8th Overall Pick – Marqise Lee, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous position: 11th overall) – Lee moves up a few spots from the last draft and should top out about here. He has good measurables but also gets points for getting the start early. He’s manning Justin Blackmon’s old spot on the outside where it was a productive spot despite shaky quarterback play. Lee isn’t as talented as Blackmon but should stay on the field.

9th Overall Pick – Jace Amaro, TE – New York Jets (Previous position: 10th overall) – Amaro will have the best chance of any rookie tight end to contribute early. With an improved offense in New York, Amaro could greatly benefit and provide some impact himself. Strictly a ‘move’ tight end, he will have to work on his blocking to become a truly top-end tight end  in dynasty leagues. But he is quite the receiver and should have the stats to show for it.

10th Overall Pick – Kelvin Benjamin, WR – Carolina Panthers – (Previous position: 15th overall) – Perhaps the most polarizing pick in rookie drafts, Benjamin has the makings of a WR1 but could just as easily be a bust. He does have a great quarterback to be on the receiving end of and will have plenty of targets his way. However, with little support surrounding him, it could be difficult for him to learn.

11th Overall Pick – Carlos Hyde, RB – San Francisco 49ers (Previous position: 8th overall) – Hyde was widely considered the top running back in the NFL draft and was scooped up by one of the top running teams in the league. The only thing holding Hyde’s dynasty value back is the crowded backfield in San Francisco. However, Frank Gore is a free agent after 2014, as is Kendall Hunter. Marcus Lattimore is not all the way back leaving the door wide open for Hyde.

12th Overall Pick – Jeremy Hill, RB – Cincinnati Bengals (Previous position: N/A) – Our first big jump is the current second stringer in Cincinnati. Hill is a pro-ready blocker which will probably lead to BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ being cut. He’ll be the inside / goal-line option to Giovani Bernard but won’t cut into Bernard’s value. If anything, he’s a high-floor, low-ceiling option at running back.

13th Overall Pick – Devonta Freeman, RB – Atlanta Falcons (Previous position: 24th overall) – Another big jump was Freeman by a whole round. Freeman has shown enough pass block/catch ability early on to warrant third down work in Atlanta. And with as much as Atlanta is expected to pass, that could be worth something. For dynasty purposes, the current starter, Steven Jackson, is on the wrong side of 30 and could be cut next year to save nearly $4 million in cap space. There’s little competition to challenge Freeman which should mean plenty of work.

14th Overall Pick – Johnny Manziel, QB – Cleveland Browns (Previous position: 17th overall) – The first quarterback taken in the mock draft, Manziel has a good shot to start early but could find himself short of a supporting cast. He’s got the arm and is mobile but his height brings in to question if he can take the beating. However, in an average quarterback class, Manziel could end up being the best of the bunch.

15th Overall Pick – Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Minnesota Vikings (Previous position: 12th overall) – Bridgewater drops a little bit but should still end up starting week one. He has a ton of talent surrounding him and Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. However, the concerns that made Bridgewater drop in the NFL draft need to be avoided in training camp before you take him in your rookie draft.

16th Overall Pick – Davante Adams, WR – Green Bay Packers (Previous position: 20th overall) – Adams moves up a bit thanks to more optimism that he’ll be able to contribute to the pass-heavy Packer offense. He led all of college football in receptions and touchdowns thanks to great hands and leaping ability. That should translate to the NFL. He’s currently fourth on the depth chart but Jordy Nelson is a free agent after 2014.

17th Overall Pick – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: 4th overall) – ASJ joins a suddenly deep roster of skill position players. He’ll easily pass 2013 surprise Tim Wright but will still be behind Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and maybe even Doug Martin. However, his talent should win out in the end.

18th Overall Pick – Cody Latimer, WR – Denver Broncos (Previous position: 22nd overall) – Latimer is big and has great hands and enters one of the best passing offenses in the league. However, he’ll start no higher than fourth on the depth chart for 2014. For 2015, Wes Welker will most likely be gone while Emmanuel Sanders could easily be cut. If Latimer could be the new Eric Decker in Denver, Latimer could flirt with WR1 status.

19th Overall Pick – Blake Bortles, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous position: 16th overall) – Bortles drops a bit thanks to Jacksonville’s insistence on sitting Bortles for most, if not all, of 2014. Bortles offers the most upside of the quarterbacks in this year’s class but has a lot of learning to do. He’s also surrounded by talented receivers which will make it easy to catch up. If you have a deep roster or taxi squad, Bortles could be an option.

20th Overall Pick – Ka’Deem Carey, RB – Chicago Bears (Previous position: N/A) – Carey will start the season as Matt Forte’s primary backup and should be able to take some of the load off. He didn’t have a great combine but did show a lot of ability in college. With Forte getting a year older, a long-term solution is needed in Chicago.

21st Overall Pick – Charles Sims, RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous position: N/A) – Sims has good pass catching ability and could get some work in early in Tampa. With Doug Martin in Tampa, Sims will probably never be a featured back but will have value in PPR leagues. However, Tampa may not be as pass-heavy as others so his ceiling is limited.

22nd Overall Pick – Tre Mason, RB – St. Louis Rams (Previous position: 23rd overall) – Mason doesn’t have the size or ability to be a featured back but could provide some change-of-pace for incumbent Zac Stacy. He does appear to have more talent than other Rams running backs Isaiah Pead and Benny Cunningham but could still struggle to find carries as a rookie. His ceiling and floor are pretty limited.

23rd Overall Pick – Terrance West, RB – Cleveland Browns (Previous position: N/A) – West has drawn comparisons to Alfred Morris thanks to his small school background and cutback ability. He also doesn’t face much competition even with the signing of Ben Tate after the Browns traded up for him. Tate is only on a two-year deal and the Browns have a young, good offensive line. He’s an ideal late second round pick that could even make an impact this year.

24th Overall Pick – Donte Moncrief, WR – Indianapolis Colts (Previous position: N/A) – Moncrief has the tools and ability to be a top-end receiver and after an impressive combine, landed in Indianapolis. Moncrief will be a good pick at the end of the second round of rookie dynasty drafts with Reggie Wayne close to retirement and Hakeem Nicks playing on a ‘prove it’ deal.

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Daily Dynasty Update – May 31st

Updated Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings – May 2014

Click here for complete dynasty wide receiver rankings.

  • NFL: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota VikingsWith Josh Gordon dropping out of the top five, it makes room for Demaryius Thomas. The others include Calvin, A.J., Dez, and Julio. 
  • Top rookies include Sammy Watkins at 12; Mike Evans at 16; Brandin Cooks at 27; Jordan Matthews at 32; Odell Beckham at 34.
  • Justin Blackmon drops from 22 to 31 (and probably further thanks to recent activity); Rueben Randle from 29 to 37 thanks to the drafting of ODB; Markus Wheaton from 40 to 51 thanks to the drafting of rookie Martavius Bryant; Dwayne Bowe  from 39 to 53.

Your dynasty questions answered, part X

jacksonRemember, email us your dynasty questions at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail(dot)com. Bryan asks,

We start QB, RB, WR, 3-Flex, Def & K., 0.5 PPR, bonus for 40+ yd catch/runs. No starting TE but we can flex one if we choose. Must start one RB and one WR and we can start RB/WR/TE as any of the 3 other Flex positions.

My Team
QB – Brady, G.Smith, C. Palmer
RB – M. Ball, A.Brown, J. Randle, B.Brown
WR – A.Jeffrey, E. Sanders, T. Williams, K. Stills, R. Wayne
Def – 49ers, STL
K – D. Bailey, N. Novak

Rookie/FA Draft I have 2nd & 7th overall picks

Should I accept the 3rd overall pick plus Steven Jackson for my 2nd overall pick?

That’s a tough one. Let’s break it down by position:

Quarterback – With Tom Brady at the helm, a quarterback isn’t necessary at 2, 3 or even 7. That will allow you to use both first round picks on a running back or receiver.

Running Back – You have your starter in Montee Ball but nothing else as far as a flex position. Both Browns and Randle are nothing more than backups. The question whether Steven Jackson will add some punch. Last year was a nightmare for Jackson as he was injured most of the year and averaged only 3.5 YPC. Now, he played behind a horrible line which is now vastly improved but he’s also 30 years old. Running back is definitely a need for you but, personally, I don’t think Steven Jackson is going to do it.

For your draft, if you consider our first rookie mock draft, you’ll have your pick of running backs at seven. You could go with an instant starter like Bishop Sankey or even Jackson’s backup Devonta Freeman who is impressing in minicamp.

Wide Receiver – You have a stud in Jeffery so there’s your starter. Emmanuel Sanders will be a great flex play now that he’s in Denver. You have a couple of guys that could fill in for one of the flex positions including Reggie Wayne or even Kenny Stills. That leaves you with one of the top receivers in this years rookie class, whoever is left of Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins. Both are elite prospects who should produce right away for you.

In conclusion, I don’t think the gap between a Watkins or Evans is that great over other receiver prospects like Odell Beckham or Brandin Cooks. But I have my doubts that Steven Jackson still has any gas left in the tank. I think you’d do well to get a Watkins/Evans plus a potential running back in your fist round.

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft 2014 – 1st Edition

manzielLess than a week removed from the 2014 NFL draft, it’s already time for mock rookie dynasty drafts. Personally, it seems like there are more potential dynasty prospects this year then there have been which is a great problem to have for your dynasty team. Let’s look at where the rookies ended up in our first edition of a dynasty rookie mock draft for 2014.

The rules are:

  • Two rounds
  • 12-teams
  • PPR (1.0 point per reception)
  • IDP (4.0 points per sack; 1.0 point per tackle)

1st Overall Pick – Sammy Watkins, WR – Buffalo Bills – The most generous comparisons call Watkins a smaller Calvin Johnson and his measurables and talent are unmatched in this receiver class. He steps in to Buffalo atop the depth chart from week one. This pick isn’t a slam dunk but it’s close. Watkins is surrounded by talent but his ultimate value will be determined by his quarterback. Current Bills quarterback E.J. Manual will either progress to a legit NFL starter or he’ll bomb and Buffalo will be in the market for a new quarterback soon. Both scenarios will be to Watkins advantage.

2nd Overall Pick – Mike Evans, WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – If Evans ended up in a different situation, I could conceivably but him ahead of Watkins. However, he’ll start his career as the clear #2 in the passing game but faces competition for touches from each offensive position. The quarterback situation is slightly better than in Buffalo as Josh McCown has proved adequate and (potential) future starter Mike Glennon has some potential. Evans will step in to Vincent Jackson’s role once Jackson moves on and should top out as a WR1 in dynasty.

3rd Overall Pick – Eric Ebron, TE – Detroit Lions – The first tight end off the board was also the first tight end selected in the NFL draft. On the surface, this is a match made in heaven with the highly talented Ebron going to one of the most pass-happy offenses in all of football. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi came from New Orleans where he mastered the use of a tight end. There will be a few draw backs as the fight for targets will be fierce among Calvin, the newly signed Golden Tate, and emerging tight end Joseph Fauria along with running back Reggie Bush. But for dynasty purposes, Ebron has the best situation and could be a stud real soon.

4th Overall Pick – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The first surprise of the mock, ASJ has the most potential of the tight end bunch. Standing at 6′ 6″, he’ll immediately unseat incumbent Tim Wright but join the battle for touches early on. However, for dynasty purposes, after Vincent Jackson moves on and ASJ establishes his red zone presence, he should be a TE1 in dynasty. For PPR leagues, pass-catching tight ends are a premium, which is why ASJ is the pick here.

5th Overall Pick – Jadeveon Clowney , DL – Houston Texans – Assuming Clowney stays at defensive end, he’ll make an immediate impact on your dynasty team. Projecting as a Julius Peppers-type, dynasty teams should kill for the chance to add someone who will get double-digit sacks every year for the foreseeable future. However, monitor this situation closely as his value is inherently tied to his position and there have already been whispers about him being considered a linebacker. Be sure to confirm the designation your league has given him before drafting. If they keep him at end, draft him here. If not, you can wait.

6th Overall Pick – Jordan Matthews, WR – Philadelphia Eagles – Any receiver in the Eagles offense should be considered but Matthews age plus size plus hands makes him the top receiver off the dynasty board after Watkins and Evans. The departure of DeSean Jackson along with the recovery of Jeremy Maclin means Matthews could step right in and produce. If quarterback Nick Foles can keep up his 2013 pace, Matthews should have no problem matching Jackson’s production year-in and year-out.

7th Overall Pick – Brandin Cooks, WR – New Orleans Saints – Cooks steps in to, arguably, the best situation possible for a receiver. Trading up to get him, the Saints will put Cooks in the slot and let him move all over the field. It’ll be a departure for the Saints who haven’t had a quick, shifty talent like Cooks before. However, like any high-powered offense, he’ll be fighting for targets. But when/if Marques Colston breaks down, Cooks could be the top receiver on the depth chart and should provide production immediately.

8th Overall Pick – Carlos Hyde, RB – San Francisco 49ers – Hyde was, surprisingly, the third running back off the board in the NFL draft but is the first one taken in this dynasty mock draft. Hyde was considered the top running back prospect by many but enters a crowded running back situation. He won’t produce a lot this year but his dynasty value is pretty high. The 49ers appear to be ready to move on from Frank Gore after his contract runs out this year and there is some talk about Marcus Lattimore not being ready for the season. If things break a certain way, Hyde will be the top back in San Francisco as early as 2015.

9th Overall Pick – Odell Beckham, Jr., WR – New York Giants – After hinting they weren’t happy with their current receiver situation, the Giants grabbed Beckham where he should immediately step in as the 2nd option in the Giants passing game. It was quite possible ODB would go in the top 10 of the actual draft so the talent is there. His value will be determined by the recovery of Eli Manning and if he can return to form. If so, Beckham would be a bargain at this spot for dynasty owners.

10th Overall Pick – Jace Amaro, TE – New York Jets – Of the three tight ends in this mock draft, Amaro could contribute the most right away. He enters a situation without many weapons but does have a decent quarterback situation, at least if Mike Vick ends up on top. Ironically, he’s also the most raw of the three and has little-to-no value in the run game. But if he can create separation in the NFL, something he didn’t have to do a lot in college, he could be a stud.

11th Overall Pick – Marqise Lee, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars – Slipping to the second round of the NFL draft, Lee steps in to a promising situation in Jacksonville. The Jaguars drafted a quarterback in Blake Bortles for the long-term and have some talent in the ranks with Cecil Shorts. Excellent route runner who was beat up in 2013, his 2012 looked like a carbon copy of Hakeem Nicks when healthy. Great hands, great route running, willing in the run game so he won’t come off the field.

12th Overall Pick – Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Minnesota Vikings – The first quarterback taken in this mock draft, Bridgewater definitely has the clearest path to starting immediately. He also has a few dangerous weapons at his disposal in Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and even Kyle Rudolph. If he can replicate what scouts saw on his game tape in college, he’ll be a low-end QB1 in no time.

13th Overall Pick – Ryan Shazier, LB – Pittsburgh Steelers – Shazier shot up draft boards and ended up as  mid-first round pick in the NFL draft. He’ll immediately step in as an inside linebacker in Pittsburgh’s very aggressive 3-4 system. He’s surrounded by talented outside linebackers in Jarvis Jones and Jason Worilds and should rack up tackles immediately. His best attribute is his speed and is able to cover sideline-to-sideline. He should top out as a LB1 in dynasty leagues.

14th Overall Pick – Bishop Sankey, RB – Tennessee Titans – The first running back taken in the NFL Draft, Sankey has a ton of talent but will need to be coached well. He also is going to a poor team without a lot of talent and coaching that isn’t conducive to running backs. However, he should see significant carries immediately and could even take over the starter’s role from Shonn Greene before the season starts. Long-term, his outlook isn’t as strong as Hyde’s but an infusion of talent could change that.

15th Overall Pick – Kelvin Benjamin, WR – Carolina Panthers – Welcome to your ultimate boom-or-bust pick in Benjamin. He’s still raw and would, ideally, have landed on a team with veterans for him to learn from and take his time. However, he’s being thrown to the fire thanks to the lack of depth in Carolina. Dynasty leaguers should know pretty quickly if they have a stud on their hands as he currently projects as a starter. Benjamin is a huge player and should be a top red zone target. He could top out as a WR1 or a taxi squad player.

16th Overall Pick – Blake Bortles, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars – The most raw quarterback of the bunch, Bortles also has the highest ceiling. He’ll have a long leash as the third overall pick and would be an ideal taxi squad player for your team his rookie year. The Jaguars have openly said they’d like to go run-heavy so there won’t be a lot of pressure early. They’ve also added some talent around the position to soften the learning curve. If you can afford to wait on a quarterback, Bortles should be your pick.

17th Overall Pick – Johnny Manziel, QB – Cleveland Browns – Manziel’s dynasty value took a big hit with the news of a possible Josh Gordon suspension. Coaches have also started very clearly that Manziel is the backup behind Brian Hoyer. However, for dynasty purposes, Cleveland is a team on the rise with an outstanding offensive line. The question remains if he can take the hits but if he does, watch out.

18th Overall Pick – C.J. Mosley, LB – Baltimore Ravens – Mosley was upset as the top linebacker taken in the NFL draft by Shazier but lands on a great team where he could thrive. He has speed and cover skills but will need to overcome the injuries that seem to plague graduates from Alabama. He also will have competition with Arthur Brown but, for dynasty purposes, should have great value long-term.

19th Overall Pick – Khalil Mack, LB – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders deserve kudos for taking a great prospect and improving their defense. Mack is a great pass-rusher from day one and will rack up sacks in the Aldon Smith mold. He won’t have a lot of tackles but for big-play leagues, Mack could be a LB2/3 for many seasons.

20th Overall Pick – Davante Adams, WR – Green Bay Packers – Adams turned out a bunch of production at Fresno State and enters a positive fantasy situation in Green Bay. He’s a possession receiver on a team with a lot of targets. He’ll start the season behind Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, and Jordy Nelson but is an ideal taxi squad player.

21st Overall Pick – Paul Richardson, WR – Seattle Seahawks – Richardson has talent but has serious injury concerns. He also isn’t a prototypical #1 receiver, size-wise, and goes to an extremely run-heavy team. He’ll enter the season fifth on the depth chart and should only be considered if you have taxi-squad availability.

22nd Overall Pick – Cody Latimer, WR, Denver Broncos – Latimer is a fantastic, late round dynasty option. Tall, young and great hands is a great combo and he’s heading to pass-happy Denver. He probably won’t contribute a lot this year but Wes Welker is a free agent next year and Latimer will be next in line.

23rd Overall Pick – Tre Mason, RB – St. Louis Rams – Drawing comparisons to Ray Rice, Mason needs coaching in the passing game to be anything other but a change of pace back. The depth behind Zac Stacy isn’t strong so he could open the season as the clear backup but won’t do anything to unseat Stacy as a starter.

24th Overall Pick – Devonta Freeman – RB – Atlanta Falcons – Freeman is pass-protection ready and has good hands and should unseat Jacquizz Rodgers immediately for targets. With only Stevan Jackson posing any real threat on the depth chart, Freeman could be a starter as soon as next year in a high-powered offense. Another good player to have on your taxi-squad.

Daily Dynasty Update – May 9th

Dynasty Impact – Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Mike Evans, WR

NCAA Football: Southern Methodist at Texas A&MDynasty Impact: Mike Evans will play second fiddle to Vincent Jackson but should quickly surpass him on the depth chart. He fills out a very talented offense with running back Doug Martin and elevates quarterback Josh McCown in dynasty leagues for the foreseeable future. Don’t be surprised if they draft a quarterback for the future in later rounds but, for now, McCown is a great stopgap in dynasty leagues. Martin should also benefit with even more attention taken away. Jackson, along with tight end Tim Wright, lose some value after definitely losing targets to Evans.