Category Archives: Running Backs

Updated Dynasty Running Back Rankings – February 2014

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Click here for the complete updated dynasty RB rankings. 

  • Top seven remains the same with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Giovani Bernard, and Matt Forte. 
  • The big risers this month include Denver running back Montee Ball. With it becoming increasingly unlikely that Denver brings back incumbent Knowshon Moreno, it will be Ball’s job to lose. Another riser includes Oakland running back Latavius Murray. Currently at the top of the Oakland depth chart now that both Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings are free agents, Murray is 6′ 3″, 223 pounds, and ran a 4.38 40 in the combine last year. Murray could be special.
  • The big drops include the previously mentioned Moreno along with the previously mentioned McFadden. It also includes BenJarvus Green-Ellis of the Bengals. With Giovani Bernard expected to shoulder more of the load in 2014, BJGE’s role is going to diminish further.

Updated Dynasty Running Back Rankings – January 2014, 2.0

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Click here for updated dynasty running back rankings. 

  • Nothing new at the top. LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles will be your consensus 1-2 dynasty running backs heading in to 2014. 
  • A slight drop for Alfred Morris from 11th to 13th, possibly due to concerns with new coach Jay Gruden’s offense. Morris is probably not an RB1 in dynasty leagues but is an ideal RB2. 
  • Other drops include Darren McFadden from 23rd to 26th. There’s a lot of uncertainty with McFadden heading in 2014 – injuries, free agency, etc. There’s also BenJarvus Green-Ellis from Cincinnati who will take an even bigger back seat to Giovani Bernard. 
  • The biggest riser (again) is Cardinals running back Andre Ellington from 31st to 23rd. Ellington could be a RB1 in dynasty leagues when (if) he takes the reins. 

Updated Dynasty Running Back Rankings – January 2014

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Click here for updated dynasty running back rankings.

  • The top two remain the same as the Eagles LeSean McCoy takes the top spot with Jamaal Charles of the chiefs not far behind.
  • After that, rookies are making the most noise with the Packers Eddie Lacy shooting up to 4th from 10th. He proved he could carry the load in Aaron Rodgers absence. The Rams Zac Stacy enters the top ten after bursting on the scene halfway through the season. He’ll be the lead back in St. Louis in 2014. The Steelers Le’Veon Bell also moved up to 13th from 17th. He might be the focal point of Pittsburgh’s offense next season.
  • The big drops include the Ravens Ray Rice dropping from 8th to 14th largely due to his steep production drop this season. The hope is this season is an anomaly for Rice and not the norm. Colts running back Trent Richardson continues his fall from 12th to 17th. Don’t expect that to be the end for Richardson as I predict he’ll drop even further as the off-season goes on. Lions running back Reggie Bush also had a drop thanks to late season injuries and backup Joique Bell‘s emergence as a solid contributor.

Q & A: Should I hang on to Giovani Bernard?

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Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati BengalsQuestion: Is Gio Bernard going to be as  good as everyone says? I’ve been offered a lot for him but I want to hang on to him. Thanks. – Anthony S.

Currently, Gio is ranked #5 in our dynasty running back rankings. I would say five might be a little high but not by much. One reason is his age as Bernard will still be just 22 entering the 2014 season. Of the running backs to score more points this year (in PPR leagues), the next youngest was Eddie Lacy who is almost a year and a half older.

Production-wise, Bernard had a very good season finishing as a top-15 running back in PPR dynasty leagues. Bernard was in a time-share with incumbent running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis with Green-Ellis getting 56% of the carries as opposed to Bernard’s 44%. Despite that, Bernard gained 695 yards and a respectable 4.1 YPC. However, he did most of his damage in the passing game, where he was second among all rookies with 56 catches. He turned that into 514 yards and a 9.2 yards per average.

Going forward, things seem to be falling in to place for Bernard to be extremely productive. BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ contract is up after the 2014 season which will move Bernard into the lead role. Furthermore, with Jay Gruden being named the new head coach in Washington, Hue Jackson will take over the offensive coordinator duties in Cincinnati. In his last stint as offensive coordinator, Jackson managed to squeeze 1,157 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) out of the oft-injured Darren McFadden plus 507 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. He should be able to do the same for Bernard.

Physically, Bernard has the build of Ray Rice (Bernard is 5′ 9″/ 208 lbs; Rice is 5′ 8″ / 212 lbs) which should alleviate any fears you may have of his body holding up. Rice had four very productive years with at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage before suffering a drop-off this year (it remains to be seen if he’ll return to form).

Overall, it’s very difficult to get a running back you can consistently rely on in dynasty football. Bernard has that potential, and should be treated, as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 for at least the next 3-4 years which, in  running back years, is a lifetime.

But, I’m a big believer in every player has a price and running backs, of all positions in fantasy football, are the most replaceable. If you were to trade Bernard, be sure to get at least one good, young player (i.e. Keenan Allen) along with picks in your upcoming drafts.

If you have a question for DFFC, be sure to email us at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral[at]gmail.com.

Updated Dynasty Running Back Rankings – December

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Be sure to check out our updated running back rankings here. 

  • The top four remain the same with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. Shouldn’t be much change in the 2014 dynasty running back rankings either.
  • The biggest riser this month were rookies Giovani Bernard (5) of Cincinnati and Zac Stacy (20) of the Rams along with New England pass specialist Shane Vereen (16). Both rookies were solid contributors all year and should have even more success in 2014 with more opportunities and earlier playing time. Vereen, with a whole year under his belt, should be a PPR monster.
  • The drop continues to include Trent Richardson (12) who should be even lower heading in to 2014. Easily the year’s biggest disappointment.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part IV

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We’re entering super-sleeper / possibly cut territory with running backs sale. Let’s see what we got.

  • Latavius Murray – Drafted out of UCF, Murray initially drew comparisons with fellow Raider Darren McFadden with his size and speed and drew praise from coach Dennis Allen.  Now sidelined with a foot issue, Murray might have lost his chance to be the primary backup.
  • Kenjon Barner – Drafted out of Oregon, Barner was brought in behind an already crowded backfield on Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert in Carolina. Nothing special physical-wise, Barner stands at 5′ 9″ and 196 pounds. He’ll be lucky to get on the field and is better suited for special teams.
  • Andre Ellington – Drafted 187th out of Clemson, Elllington currently sits 4th on the Cardinals depth chart. However, with Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Willaims hurting, Ellington suddenly has a shot at some playing time and significant time in pre-season. He knows how to hit his holes and accelerate. Only fellow rookie Stepfan Taylor stands in his way. Ellington might be the best of this bunch.
  • Mike James – Pick 189 of Tampa out of the U, James compares to Earnest Graham in size and ability. James has already secured the backup spot to Doug Martin so grab him if you can in deeper leagues.
  • Rex Burkhead – Drafted one pick later out of the cornfields of Nebraska, Burkhead is nothing more than a special teams player at this point. His path to fantasy relevance is all but closed thanks to fellow rookie Giovani Bernard. Only draft Burkhead if you plan on keeping Bernard.
  • Spencer Ware – Drafted 194th out of LSU, Ware has no shot at running back in Seattle’s crowded (and talent-rich) backfield. Which is why Pete Carroll would like him to learn fullback. It wont’ get him much fantasy stats so you can pass.
  • Theo Riddick – With the 199th pick, Riddick went to Detroit to join the competition at running back between Reggie Bush, Mikel Leshoure, and Joique Bell. So far, Riddick is still competing for his roster spot. Nothing to see here.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here. For Part III click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part III

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Six backs were selected in the fifth round of the 2013 NFL draft. All would be considered sleepers in dynasty fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look:

  • Denard Robinson (JAC) – Originally a quarterback at Michigan, Robinson was drafted 135th overall. Truly a jack of all trades, it seems as if Robinson’s speed is probably best suited at running back seeing as he ran a 4.34 unofficial 40-time at the combine. He grew into the role in rookie camp but it still adjusting after dropping a pass and fumbling a handoff. Robinson would be the #3 running back on the depth chart and should be stashed by all MJD owners in the event his contract isn’t renewed.
  • Stepfan Taylor (ARI) – Drafted 140th overall out of Stanford, Taylor currently sits behind Rashard Mendendhall and Ryan Williams on the depth chart. With coach Bruce Arians already calling the running back race for 26-year old Mendenhall, and the team sticking by 23-year old Ryan Williams, there doesn’t seem to be a clear path for Taylor. In addition, thanks to the NFL’s graduation rules, Taylor is also starting behind the other backs. Only draft Taylor if you have either Mendenhall or Williams on your current roster.
  • Joseph Randle (DAL) – Drafted 151st overall by Dallas, Randle has already been anointed the backup to DeMarco Murray and expected to carry the load, should it come to that. Randle is still recovering from thumb surgery but should be ready to go. While nothing special in college, the fact that he’s backing up one of the most brittle. Additionally, Randle now becomes a part of the revolving door of Dallas running backs which has had four different leading rushers in 7 years. This could be a gift and a curse for Randle but, for now, don’t pin your hopes on him.
  • Chris Thompson (WAS) – Going 154th overall to Washington, Thompson is a massive unknown. He broke his back and college and tore his ACL in consecutive years at Florida State. But Washington feels like he can do it all. At the moment, there’s a pileup in the Washington backfield but Thompson is one to remember simply because Shanahan is so unpredictable. After all, incumbent Alfred Morris was drafted in the 6th round.
  • Zac Stacy (STL) – St. Louis traded up to 160 to pick Stacy out of Vanderbilt after averaging 5.5 YPC on over 200 carries in the tough SEC last year. Stacy proved he can handle the load there but will have to compete with Daryl Richardson (23) and Isiah Pead (23).  Richardson is projected as the starter after averaging 4.8 YPC on about 100 carries in his rookie year. However, coach Jeff Fisher indicated he’s not opposed to a running back by committee approach. Stacy is talented but will have to beat two young, good players first to get noticed.
  • Mike Gillislee (MIA) – Picked 164th out of Florida, Gillislee was nothing special coming out of the draft with the look of a long-time backup. He’s also not caught up to number two Daniel Thomas as of yet and would start the season as the third running back if it started today. Gillislee is off the dynasty radar at the moment unless you’re a concered Lamar Miller owner.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part II

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The second edition of our look at dynasty rookie running backs gets into sleeper pick territory. These next backs were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the 2013 NFL draft and offer plenty of intrigue.

  • Knile Davis (KC) – Drafted 96th overall, Davis was a combine stud with a 4.3 40-time and 31 reps on the bench press (which led all running backs). But when it comes to game time, he’s being compared to Shonn Greene. He concluded his college career with 8 fumbles and a 3.4 YPC. Looking at the situation in Kansas City, there is no path to starters minutes with Jamaal Charles. Nor should there be. Unless Davis can show promise in the few opportunities he’ll get, there’s not much to go off there. The only real reason to draft Davis is as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles.
  • Johnathan Franklin (GB) – The Packers traded up to the 125th pick to snag Franklin to go along with Eddie Lacy. The Packers got great value as some had Franklin as the best running back in the draft after averaging over six yards per carry at UCLA. But at the same time, it remains to be seen where Franklin will fit in the new look backfield. Lacy is the obvious first stringer and goal line back but is Franklin a change of pace? 3rd down option? If he can get a cut of Aaron Rodgers throws, he’d be worth something as soon as this year. If not, Franklin is nothing more than a Lacy handcuff at this point.
  • Marcus Lattimore (SF) – After totaling almost 1,500 yards and 19 total touchdowns as a freshman, Lattimore tore his left ACL the next year and completely ripped up his knee the year after, tearing 3 -CL’s (ACL, PCL, MCL) in his right knee. Widely projected as a top pick, Lattimore fell to the 49ers who, with their abundance of picks, was able to draft Lattimore as a luxury. Dynasty fantasy football players should probably treat Lattimore the same way. He won’t contribute any this year but would be great on the taxi squad. The offense in San Francisco is ideal but there’s no clear path to being the starter. Frank Gore has at least one more year while  there’s competition for carries from Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. Treat Lattimore as a luxury instead of a necessity.

None of these backs will contribute much this year but all are worth keeping an eye on for taxi squad. If NFL teams think this highly of them, you should too. Two are in the top 35 of running backs in dynasty ranks.

Part I click here. For Part III click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part I

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Conventional re-draft fantasy football leagues emphasize getting a running back early due to the lack of quality personnel. In a fantasy league where your only concern is the next 16 games, it’s easy to identify who’s capable of being successful in the short term. But just because running backs are so essential in re-draft leagues doesn’t necessarily mean the same in dynasty leagues. While still important, running backs in dynasty leagues are more easily replaceable than a franchise quarterback, not unlike the NFL. Be careful of how much you offer up to get that rookie running back. As you’ll see below (and in our rankings), there’s plenty of options at running back. Let’s take a look at the first ones drafted this past April.

  • Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back off the board in the NFL draft is the one to own in dynasty leagues. After being compared to Ray Rice at the combine, Cincinnati took Bernard to compliment Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Early on, Cincinnati has gushed about his big play ability, even splitting Bernard out wide. With Green-Ellis’ contract expiring after 2014, that leaves Bernard in the drivers seat to be the man in Cincinnati. Sure, this year he’ll be the primary backup for Green-Ellis while getting the 3rd down work but don’t be surprised if they can’t keep him off the field in 2013.
  • Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – The 48th overall pick from Michigan State, Bell is a big boy at 6′ 1″ and 244 pounds. Scouts expect him to get the first shot at being a 3-down back due to his ability to block and catch. Plus, there is little-to-no competition among the returning runners like Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Bell entered, perhaps, the best situation for a fantasy running back. If wouldn’t be a reach to take Bell over Bernard in your dynasty fantasy drafts.
  • Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted 58th overall, Ball was entering a crowded backfield in Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman. After McGahee was cut, people assumed that Ball was going to be the man but the situation is still murky. With Knowshon Moreno rushing for 100 yards in a the last couple games of 2012 and 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman still in the fold, it’s not as if Ball has a clear path to being the starter. Furthermore, his heavy workload at Wisconsin will cut into his career carries. For dynasty leagues, it’s something to consider if you’re needing a running back early on. I’d avoid Ball until the running back picture in Denver is more clear.
  • Eddie Lacy (GB) – Lacy was presumed to be the first running back off the board but ended up being the 4th. He slipped because of concerns over a fused toe that might cause problems down the road. For dynasty fantasy leaguers, Green Bay isn’t exactly the most ideal place for a running back simply because Aaron Rodgers is too good to take the ball out of his hands. Plus, he does have some competition in fellow rookie Jonathan Franklin and 2012 holdover DuJuan Harris who did show some promise towards the end of the season. On the positive side, he’s been compared to Steven Jackson and should have plenty of opportunities for goal-line work. But how long Lacy lasts remains to be seen. I’d feel safe drafting Lacy in the 2nd round of your dynasty draft. Anything higher would give me pause.
  • Christine Michael (SEA) – Perhaps the most intriguing back in this years draft, Michael was drafted with the last pick of the second round by Seattle. Michael didn’t start off his NFL career well by ‘taking too much NyQuil.’ Once he got into camp, his pass protection was questioned, which is common for rookie running backs and can prevent them from getting on the field. But there’s just so much talent to offset the negatives. ESPN’s Matt Williamson has labeled him a top-10 talent in 2016. Plus, since Marshawn Lynch has been missing camp, Michael’s been the one to draw the first team reps over Robert Turbin. Pete Carroll has been one to let the best man win no matter the age or experience and Michael may just have too much talent to keep him off the field. He may not be one to draft in your dynasty drafts first round but could be a steal in the second.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here.

Matt Forte to get more catches

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One could argue that Matt Forte peaked in his rookie season. After all, he carried the ball (the cursed) 300+ times while setting career-highs in rushing yards (1,238), touchdowns (12), and receptions (63). He’s averaged right at 1,000 yards rushing since and has seen his receptions steadily drop to a career-low 44 last year. At 27, there’s been a lot of wear-and-tear on those tires but help may be on the way, at least for the short term.

With the addition of Marc Trestman as Head Coach, Forte should expect to see more routes and throws his way. Trestman’s offenses over 10 years as an offensive coordinate averaged 65 catches for the running back. With Jay Cutler at quarterback and an (allegedly) improved offensive line, Forte should have no problem matching his career high. But while the short-term looks bright, the added work should speed up the downhill arc of his career. Forte already has 1,200 carries through his first five years and has been nicked up in the past with a sprained MCL in 2011 and an ankle sprain in 2012. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to have Forte on your roster as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 if you’re in win-now mode in 2013. But his shelf life at that level can’t be expected to be more than 2-3 years. Look to sell high after the next year or two.