One could argue that Matt Forte peaked in his rookie season. After all, he carried the ball (the cursed) 300+ times while setting career-highs in rushing yards (1,238), touchdowns (12), and receptions (63). He’s averaged right at 1,000 yards rushing since and has seen his receptions steadily drop to a career-low 44 last year. At 27, there’s been a lot of wear-and-tear on those tires but help may be on the way, at least for the short term.
With the addition of Marc Trestman as Head Coach, Forte should expect to see more routes and throws his way. Trestman’s offenses over 10 years as an offensive coordinate averaged 65 catches for the running back. With Jay Cutler at quarterback and an (allegedly) improved offensive line, Forte should have no problem matching his career high. But while the short-term looks bright, the added work should speed up the downhill arc of his career. Forte already has 1,200 carries through his first five years and has been nicked up in the past with a sprained MCL in 2011 and an ankle sprain in 2012. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to have Forte on your roster as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 if you’re in win-now mode in 2013. But his shelf life at that level can’t be expected to be more than 2-3 years. Look to sell high after the next year or two.