Category Archives: Analysis

Dennis Pitta, Jeremy Maclin out for the year

Posted on by Standard 1

First it was Jeremy Maclin then Dennis Pitta. Maclin to a torn ACL and Pitta to a dislocated hip. The dynasty analysis:

  • Dennis Pitta – Pitta was ranked no later than six in dynasty rankings. With Anquan Boldin traded, Pitta was in line for a ton of targets and receptions. And with the lack of reliable tight end targets around the league, could have even improved his dynasty draft ranking. Now Pitta has a fractured hip which is not all that dissimilar from what Bo Jackson had which ended his career. In fact, two of the eight players with the same type of injury had their careers ended because of it. Needless to say, there’s little reason to draft Pitta unless you have some sort of injured reserve in your leagues. Ed Dickson will improve on his 44th dynasty ranking. He did have a respectable 54/528/5 line in his only season as a starter but that will probably be the ceiling for him.
  • Jeremy Maclin – Maclin was ranked 25th in dynasty rankings heading into the season (and a contract year) before tearing his ACL. 25th may have been high seeing as Chip Kelly goes run-first and the quarterback question is still up in the air. But showing glimpses of talent, being the #1 target on a team and at just 25 years old, Maclin still made a good investment in dynasty leagues. However, now he’ll have to wait until his age-26 season and find a team willing to take a chance. For the Eagles this year, Riley Cooper will take over. If a player of Maclin’s ability produced no more than 66 yards a game over four years, I don’t know that Cooper can do much more.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part III

Posted on by Standard 4

Part three of our look at dynasty rookie wide receivers includes those drafted in the third round of the 2013 NFL draft. These would be true sleepers in any format.

  • Terrance Williams (DAL) – Drafted 74th overall out of Baylor, Williams was expected to compete for the third receiver position in Dallas. At 6′ 2″ and 208 pounds, Williams was billed as a Mike Wallace-type vertical threat. However, Williams has had issues doing the most basic receiving duties like, you know, receiving. Williams seems to be another in the revolving door of third receivers the Cowboys have had over the years. He’s a late round prospect in dynasty leagues and a must-own for any Miles Austin owners, even if it’s for the taxi squad. But don’t spend too high of a pick.
  • Keenan Allen (SD) – Allen was drafted two picks after Williams at 76 to San Diego. Allen was Cal’s all-time leading receiver after just three seasons. He excels in route running and receiving but ran a disappointing 4.7 before the draft. However, the Chargers think it should have been closer to a 4.5 since Allen was coming off a PCL tear. Even so, he currently sits 4th on the Chargers depth chart behind Danario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, and Vincent Brown. Plus, Philip Rivers continues to trend downwards with less zip on his ball than ever before. His talent outweighs his situation so there is hope. Allen currently sits at 46 in dynasty rankings.
  • Marquise Goodwin (BUF) – Drafted two picks after Allen, Goodwin went 78th to Buffalo out of Texas. With a 4.27 40-time, Goodwin set the third fastest 40-time since the combine went digital in1999.  Hopefully, his 5′ 9″ stature doesn’t prevent the Bills from using him on the outside where he, literally, had to slow down on a couple deep bombs. As with the other Bills position players, their long-term success will hinge on E.J. Manual. Hopefully, Manual will learn to get Goodwin the ball. He’s the first prospect from this list that I can get excited about.
  • Markus Wheaton (PIT) –  Drafted 79th by Pittsburgh, Wheaton was brought in to presumably, be groomed for Mike Wallace’s old spot. According to former scout Daniel Jeremiah, Wheaton “fits the new mold they’ve got there, guys who can win one-on-ones with quickness, but he’s also got big-play ability with top speed and feisty toughness.” Wheaton enters a stable quarterback situation, a clear path to the #3 receiving spot immediately and an offense coaching staff responsible for 3,700 passing yards last year. Hopefully Wheaton can carve out a piece of that early and often.
  • Stedman Bailey (STL) – Drafted 92nd overall by the Rams, Bailey is buried behind Brian Quick, Chris Givens, and West Virginia teammate Tavon Austin, even though Bailey led the Mountaineers in receiving yards and had an amazing 25 touchdowns. Pre-combine he was reported to look impressive with good routes and catching everything in sight. He only slipped thanks to sub-par 40 times and other combine stats. Bailey is at the mercy of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense but would be a great pick on most other teams with less competition. As it is, he’s worth nothing more than a taxi squad pick at this point.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here. For Part IV click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part II

Posted on by Standard 3

The second edition of our look at dynasty rookie running backs gets into sleeper pick territory. These next backs were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the 2013 NFL draft and offer plenty of intrigue.

  • Knile Davis (KC) – Drafted 96th overall, Davis was a combine stud with a 4.3 40-time and 31 reps on the bench press (which led all running backs). But when it comes to game time, he’s being compared to Shonn Greene. He concluded his college career with 8 fumbles and a 3.4 YPC. Looking at the situation in Kansas City, there is no path to starters minutes with Jamaal Charles. Nor should there be. Unless Davis can show promise in the few opportunities he’ll get, there’s not much to go off there. The only real reason to draft Davis is as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles.
  • Johnathan Franklin (GB) – The Packers traded up to the 125th pick to snag Franklin to go along with Eddie Lacy. The Packers got great value as some had Franklin as the best running back in the draft after averaging over six yards per carry at UCLA. But at the same time, it remains to be seen where Franklin will fit in the new look backfield. Lacy is the obvious first stringer and goal line back but is Franklin a change of pace? 3rd down option? If he can get a cut of Aaron Rodgers throws, he’d be worth something as soon as this year. If not, Franklin is nothing more than a Lacy handcuff at this point.
  • Marcus Lattimore (SF) – After totaling almost 1,500 yards and 19 total touchdowns as a freshman, Lattimore tore his left ACL the next year and completely ripped up his knee the year after, tearing 3 -CL’s (ACL, PCL, MCL) in his right knee. Widely projected as a top pick, Lattimore fell to the 49ers who, with their abundance of picks, was able to draft Lattimore as a luxury. Dynasty fantasy football players should probably treat Lattimore the same way. He won’t contribute any this year but would be great on the taxi squad. The offense in San Francisco is ideal but there’s no clear path to being the starter. Frank Gore has at least one more year while  there’s competition for carries from Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. Treat Lattimore as a luxury instead of a necessity.

None of these backs will contribute much this year but all are worth keeping an eye on for taxi squad. If NFL teams think this highly of them, you should too. Two are in the top 35 of running backs in dynasty ranks.

Part I click here. For Part III click here.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part II

Posted on by Standard 4

Previously, we looked at the  three receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and what kind of impact to expect from them in dynasty leagues. Part II will look at those receivers drafted in the second round. Typically, they can provide more value as you’ll be drafting them later.

  • Justin Hunter (TEN) – Before the draft, Greg Cosell called Hunter the most physically gifted receiver among those that were eligible. After his 6′ 4″ frame ran a 4.4 40-time in the combine, Hunter was drafted 34th overall by Tennessee. Hunter has the tools but will he have the opportunity to be successful? Hunter joins Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright in the Tennessee rotation and is coming off a hamstring injury in OTA’s. Perhaps most damning is that Jake Locker is still the Tennessee quarterback. There’s a lot to overcome so it might be wise to use a taxi-squad spot for Hunter initially. Plus, there’s other receiver that were drafted later than Hunter that have a better opportunity to make an immediate impact. Hunter currently sits at 49 in average dynasty rankings.
  • Robert Woods (BUF) – Woods was drafted 41st overall from USC after posting a 74/849/11 line his junior year. Of course this was after his sophomore season of 111/1,292/15.  Physically, Woods has a pedestrian build at 6′ 0″ and 190 pounds but is considered the most NFL-ready of any receiver thanks to a quick grasp of the playbook and good route-running. He is walking into a good situation with Buffalo hitting the reset button in the off-season. With a new coach and quarterback, who he’s already hitting it off with, Woods has time to prove he belongs. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting opposite Steve Johnson in the Fall. Definitely worth a mid-level draft pick in dynasty circles. Woods is 51 in combined dynasty rankings.
  • Aaron Dobson (NE) –  My personal favorite of the second round picks, Dobson is walking into an ideal situation. Drafted 59th overall out of Marshall, the 6′ 3″ Dobson is just one of the many new faces in the New England receiving corps. which means everyone is  starting fresh. Additionally, last year’s New England team was fourth in the league in pass attempts. Drafted to provide some height, Dobson was compared by Cosell to Larry FItzgerald in terms of size and hands. If he can keep up with Tom Brady and the playbook, there’s nothing stopping Dobson from being successful early and often in dynasty leagues. And with Belichick, supposedly, gushing about him while praising his basketball background (hello, Jimmy Graham), Dobson is set up for big things now and in the future. With the uncertainty in New England about who’s going to catch the ball, it might not be a bad idea to grab Dobson early in dynasty drafts.  Expect his current 59th spot in our dynasty ranks to improve.

Part I click here. For Part III click here. For Part IV click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part I

Posted on by Standard 3

Conventional re-draft fantasy football leagues emphasize getting a running back early due to the lack of quality personnel. In a fantasy league where your only concern is the next 16 games, it’s easy to identify who’s capable of being successful in the short term. But just because running backs are so essential in re-draft leagues doesn’t necessarily mean the same in dynasty leagues. While still important, running backs in dynasty leagues are more easily replaceable than a franchise quarterback, not unlike the NFL. Be careful of how much you offer up to get that rookie running back. As you’ll see below (and in our rankings), there’s plenty of options at running back. Let’s take a look at the first ones drafted this past April.

  • Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back off the board in the NFL draft is the one to own in dynasty leagues. After being compared to Ray Rice at the combine, Cincinnati took Bernard to compliment Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Early on, Cincinnati has gushed about his big play ability, even splitting Bernard out wide. With Green-Ellis’ contract expiring after 2014, that leaves Bernard in the drivers seat to be the man in Cincinnati. Sure, this year he’ll be the primary backup for Green-Ellis while getting the 3rd down work but don’t be surprised if they can’t keep him off the field in 2013.
  • Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – The 48th overall pick from Michigan State, Bell is a big boy at 6′ 1″ and 244 pounds. Scouts expect him to get the first shot at being a 3-down back due to his ability to block and catch. Plus, there is little-to-no competition among the returning runners like Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Bell entered, perhaps, the best situation for a fantasy running back. If wouldn’t be a reach to take Bell over Bernard in your dynasty fantasy drafts.
  • Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted 58th overall, Ball was entering a crowded backfield in Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman. After McGahee was cut, people assumed that Ball was going to be the man but the situation is still murky. With Knowshon Moreno rushing for 100 yards in a the last couple games of 2012 and 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman still in the fold, it’s not as if Ball has a clear path to being the starter. Furthermore, his heavy workload at Wisconsin will cut into his career carries. For dynasty leagues, it’s something to consider if you’re needing a running back early on. I’d avoid Ball until the running back picture in Denver is more clear.
  • Eddie Lacy (GB) – Lacy was presumed to be the first running back off the board but ended up being the 4th. He slipped because of concerns over a fused toe that might cause problems down the road. For dynasty fantasy leaguers, Green Bay isn’t exactly the most ideal place for a running back simply because Aaron Rodgers is too good to take the ball out of his hands. Plus, he does have some competition in fellow rookie Jonathan Franklin and 2012 holdover DuJuan Harris who did show some promise towards the end of the season. On the positive side, he’s been compared to Steven Jackson and should have plenty of opportunities for goal-line work. But how long Lacy lasts remains to be seen. I’d feel safe drafting Lacy in the 2nd round of your dynasty draft. Anything higher would give me pause.
  • Christine Michael (SEA) – Perhaps the most intriguing back in this years draft, Michael was drafted with the last pick of the second round by Seattle. Michael didn’t start off his NFL career well by ‘taking too much NyQuil.’ Once he got into camp, his pass protection was questioned, which is common for rookie running backs and can prevent them from getting on the field. But there’s just so much talent to offset the negatives. ESPN’s Matt Williamson has labeled him a top-10 talent in 2016. Plus, since Marshawn Lynch has been missing camp, Michael’s been the one to draw the first team reps over Robert Turbin. Pete Carroll has been one to let the best man win no matter the age or experience and Michael may just have too much talent to keep him off the field. He may not be one to draft in your dynasty drafts first round but could be a steal in the second.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part I

Posted on by Standard 9

The latest wide receiver dynasty rankings show only three rookies in the top 40. These three were also, not coincidentally, drafted in the first round. The logic is if real NFL teams thought this highly of them, dynasty leagues should too. Let’s take a look.

  • Tavon Austin (STL) – The eight overall pick from West Virginia comes in with the most hype and the most intrigue. After Austin ran a 4.34 40 at the combine and St. Louis trading their 1st, 2nd, 3rd (getting a 3rd in return), and 7th round pick in a Madden-like move, reports indicated coach Jeff Fisher planned to use Austin all over the place. Even in the backfield a la Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb! He’s got a good, young quarterback throwing him the ball in Sam Bradford and, at the moment, is the man. On paper, it looked like everything was coming up Milhouse. But look a little closer and there are some concerns. First, the height. Of the top 20 receivers in yardage last year, none were the same as Austin’s 5′ 8″ and only two were 5′ 9″. The rest were 5′ 10″ and above with more than half 6′ or more. It’s extremely difficult to win match ups if you’re the shortest guy on the field. Secondly, the latest reports has St. Louis using a ‘spread the wealth‘ system a la the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Drew Brees has averaged 620 pass attempts while completing 67% of his passes since getting to New Orleans in 2007. To date, the most passes Bradford has attempted has been 590 and the best percentage he had was 60%. By Brees’ third full season in the league, he was up to 65%. Furthermore, the best receiving season that was a product of the ‘spread the wealth’ system in New Orleans was Jimmy Graham and his ridiculous 99/1310/11 2012 season which, one could argue, is a result of his freakish 6′ 7″ frame and the matchup problems that ensue. For the record, 1,310 yards would have been good for 11th in the league last year. And this is the ceiling. The bottom line is Austin will be a good pick and has tremendous upside potential (TUP – it’s a thing, look it up). But exercise caution at Austin’s limitations. If you’re able to draft him early in your rookie dynasty drafts, I think you should. He’s definitely worth more than any of the quarterbacks and possibly most of the running backs out there simply because he’s a receiver in an offense that’s committed to him. But don’t mortgage the farm and give up proven assets. Austin is currently ranked 24th in our dynasty wide receiver ranks.
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) – My personal favorite from this first batch is Hopkins who was drafted 27th overall by Houston. Hopkins is just the 4th offense player drafted in the first round by the Texans and the first receiver since the man he’s been groomed to replace, Andre Johnson. At 32, Johnson seemed to be on the downslope of his career but bounced back with a 112/1598/4 line last year. Houston surely doesn’t expect Johnson to keep that up heading into his mid-30’s so neither should dynasty leaguers. Thus the pick of Hopkins. It’s hard to find a negative report about Hopkins after running with the first team in OTA’s, being compared to Rod Smith (and his 8-1,000 yard seasons), and being labeled as ‘special. The only drawback is the level of passing we can expect from Houston. Per TeamRankings.com, they ranked 24th last year in percentage of pass plays and 31st the  year before. Of course, those could change on a dime as evidenced by Houston ranking 11th in pass plays percentage in 2010 and 9th in 2009. Worst-case scenario is Hopkins finally gives Houston a second option in the pass game while they tap the break on the run plays. Best case is he develops into the next Andre Johnson and learns from the man himself. While Austin may edge Hopkins out because of the immediate impact, I wouldn’t lose sleep if I ended up with Hopkins. Hopkins is 30th in our wide receiver ranks.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) – Patterson is the most raw of the bunch after spending one season in D-1. Minnesota ended up trading a Tavon Austin-style package (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to New England to get him. Build-wise he stands at 6′ 2″ and 220 pounds and put on quite a show at the combine with a 4.42 40-time and 37″ vertical. The potential is sky high but that’s all we have at this point. Luckily, Minnesota does plan on easing Patterson into the system so there’s time for Patterson to pick it up. He also gets to learn from one of the game’s best route runners in Greg Jennings and have the best running back in the game to take the attention off. It’s a great situation for such a raw talent like Patterson. Now the downside. His quarterback is Christian Ponder who might, or might not, be around for the long term will need to step it up for Minnesota to get Patterson’s full potential. No more 18/12 TD:INT seasons. Either Ponder improves or Minnesota drafts or signs an upgrade but the status quo won’t work. Of course, this could all be for not and Patterson could be a giant bust. For dynasty purposes, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on Patterson but would much rather get a runner or even a tight end like Tyler Eifert. I might even consider linebackers if you’re in a dynasty IDP league. But don’t sleep on Patterson if he starts to slip. He sits at 32 in our rankings.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here. Fort Part IV click here.

Rookie Tight End Sleepers

Posted on by Standard 1

While updating the latest tight end rankings, there were several rookies that stood out. If you’re in a dynasty league, adding unknown rookies at the end of your draft can result in the next Dennis Pitta. And while such rookies as Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed have already popped up on dynasty rankings, there’s several others that haven’t. Let’s take a look at a few that you may want to become familiar with before your dynasty draft.

  • Dion Sims (MIA) – At 6′ 5″ and 262 pounds, Sims has the prototypical build of a successful tight end. Brought it primarily as a blocker and backup to newly-signed Dustin Keller, Sims has nonetheless seen a lot of the field in OTA’s. Keller only played in eight games last year due to injuries so if history repeats itself, look for Sims to play even more snaps. Long-term, if Sims can evolve as a pass catcher, he can ride the wave that Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace are creating.
  • Vance McDonald (SF) – While carrying the same size as Sims (6′ 4″ / 267), McDonald actually has the opposite profile heading into his NFL career in that he was primarily a receiving tight end and rarely lined up in the three-point stance. Drafted in the 2nd round to take Delanie Walker’s role in the offense, he’s impressed the coaches and the quarterbacks so far with his catching ability. Of course, teams have yet to start making contact and the 49ers have yet to determine if McDonald can fulfill his primary duty of blocking so they can free up Vernon Davis. McDonald has entered into an ideal dynasty fantasy situation with a young franchise quarterback, a great team foundation that should be good for years to come and a tight end playing in front of him who will turn 30 next year with an expiring contract not long after.
  • Chris Gragg (BUF) – While Gragg is a tad shorter than either Sims or McDonald (6′ 3″), he was, without a doubt, the fastest of the bunch coming out of the draft after clocking a 4.5 40-time. Thanks to Scott Chandler still recovering from his ACL tear suffered at the end of last season, Gragg has been taking the first team snaps in OTA’s. Already, Coach Doug Marrone has mentioned using him vertically to create matchup problems with his combination of size and speed. I believe Gragg will have the earliest opportunity of these sleepers to contribute early. His dynasty prospects are even better as he’s playing behind Chandler, who not only turns 28 this year but has an expiring contract as well.
  • Luke Willson (SEA) – Perhaps the most physically impressive sleeper of the bunch, Willson stands at 6′ 5″ and 251 pounds with a 4.51 40-time. He’s also the biggest question mark after making only 78 catches in his entire collegiate career at Rice. Additionally, he spent his senior season missing six games to injury while backing up Vance McDonald (see above). But with incumbent Zach Miller coming off a torn plantar fascia in the playoffs and previously thought second stringer Anthony McCoy tearing his Achilles not long ago, the door is wide open for Willson to make an impression. In fact, he already has at rookie minicamp in May. Willson was able to get behind the defense, make tough catches, and find the end zone. Willson’s performance in training camp will be the sole factor in just how much he contributes early. For dynasty, he’ll have to outperform no less than three candidates for the starting job. But with no clear-cut leader, that may not be difficult.

Kiko Alonso Dynasty Analysis

Posted on by Standard Reply

On the official Bills website today, they take a look at the race to be the starter at ILB.  As author Chris Brown mentioned, the Bills haven’t had a consistent starter at ILB since Paul Posluszny in 2010.

All indications are Kiko Alonso will start the season there after being drafted 46th overall. New coach Doug Marrone recently said, “he’s shown he has all the ability to play all three downs.” Alonso flashed that ability in his last year at Oregon when he was all over the field recording 87 total tackles, 16 tackles for a loss, four interceptions, seven passes defended, two forced fumbles and a sack.

New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will play a big, if not the biggest, role in who the starting inside linebacker is. Whether it’s Alonso or other candidates  Nigel Bradham, Arthur Moats or Bryan Scott, recent history indicates Pettine’s defenses haven’t had a consistent tackler at the position. In his four years as the New York Jets coordinator, inside linebacker David Harris had 127, 99, 86, 123 from 2009-2012. Harris is still an above average fantasy linebacker but more consistency from Pettine’s linebackers would be preferred.

Assuming Alonso starts the season as the starter, he should put up LB2/3 numbers right away as most inside linebackers do. Said Pettine, “he has come in and he is as close to NFL ready as I’ve seen a rookie linebacker step into this system.” Additionally, the Bills are in full-scale re-build mode under new general manager Doug Whaley, Marrone and raw rookie quarterback E.J. Manual. This should buy Alonso plenty of time to develop his game before the real pressure builds.

Long-term, the only potential hurdle is his few run-ins with the law. Currently, Alonso sits at 30 in our latest overall linebacker rankings. Assuming he can avoid those in the future, I’d have no problem taking Alonso as the second rookie linebacker in a dynasty draft.

Matt Forte to get more catches

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One could argue that Matt Forte peaked in his rookie season. After all, he carried the ball (the cursed) 300+ times while setting career-highs in rushing yards (1,238), touchdowns (12), and receptions (63). He’s averaged right at 1,000 yards rushing since and has seen his receptions steadily drop to a career-low 44 last year. At 27, there’s been a lot of wear-and-tear on those tires but help may be on the way, at least for the short term.

With the addition of Marc Trestman as Head Coach, Forte should expect to see more routes and throws his way. Trestman’s offenses over 10 years as an offensive coordinate averaged 65 catches for the running back. With Jay Cutler at quarterback and an (allegedly) improved offensive line, Forte should have no problem matching his career high. But while the short-term looks bright, the added work should speed up the downhill arc of his career. Forte already has 1,200 carries through his first five years and has been nicked up in the past with a sprained MCL in 2011 and an ankle sprain in 2012. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to have Forte on your roster as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 if you’re in win-now mode in 2013. But his shelf life at that level can’t be expected to be more than 2-3 years. Look to sell high after the next year or two.