Author Archives: dodgermoore

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part I

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The latest wide receiver dynasty rankings show only three rookies in the top 40. These three were also, not coincidentally, drafted in the first round. The logic is if real NFL teams thought this highly of them, dynasty leagues should too. Let’s take a look.

  • Tavon Austin (STL) – The eight overall pick from West Virginia comes in with the most hype and the most intrigue. After Austin ran a 4.34 40 at the combine and St. Louis trading their 1st, 2nd, 3rd (getting a 3rd in return), and 7th round pick in a Madden-like move, reports indicated coach Jeff Fisher planned to use Austin all over the place. Even in the backfield a la Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb! He’s got a good, young quarterback throwing him the ball in Sam Bradford and, at the moment, is the man. On paper, it looked like everything was coming up Milhouse. But look a little closer and there are some concerns. First, the height. Of the top 20 receivers in yardage last year, none were the same as Austin’s 5′ 8″ and only two were 5′ 9″. The rest were 5′ 10″ and above with more than half 6′ or more. It’s extremely difficult to win match ups if you’re the shortest guy on the field. Secondly, the latest reports has St. Louis using a ‘spread the wealth‘ system a la the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Drew Brees has averaged 620 pass attempts while completing 67% of his passes since getting to New Orleans in 2007. To date, the most passes Bradford has attempted has been 590 and the best percentage he had was 60%. By Brees’ third full season in the league, he was up to 65%. Furthermore, the best receiving season that was a product of the ‘spread the wealth’ system in New Orleans was Jimmy Graham and his ridiculous 99/1310/11 2012 season which, one could argue, is a result of his freakish 6′ 7″ frame and the matchup problems that ensue. For the record, 1,310 yards would have been good for 11th in the league last year. And this is the ceiling. The bottom line is Austin will be a good pick and has tremendous upside potential (TUP – it’s a thing, look it up). But exercise caution at Austin’s limitations. If you’re able to draft him early in your rookie dynasty drafts, I think you should. He’s definitely worth more than any of the quarterbacks and possibly most of the running backs out there simply because he’s a receiver in an offense that’s committed to him. But don’t mortgage the farm and give up proven assets. Austin is currently ranked 24th in our dynasty wide receiver ranks.
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) – My personal favorite from this first batch is Hopkins who was drafted 27th overall by Houston. Hopkins is just the 4th offense player drafted in the first round by the Texans and the first receiver since the man he’s been groomed to replace, Andre Johnson. At 32, Johnson seemed to be on the downslope of his career but bounced back with a 112/1598/4 line last year. Houston surely doesn’t expect Johnson to keep that up heading into his mid-30’s so neither should dynasty leaguers. Thus the pick of Hopkins. It’s hard to find a negative report about Hopkins after running with the first team in OTA’s, being compared to Rod Smith (and his 8-1,000 yard seasons), and being labeled as ‘special. The only drawback is the level of passing we can expect from Houston. Per TeamRankings.com, they ranked 24th last year in percentage of pass plays and 31st the  year before. Of course, those could change on a dime as evidenced by Houston ranking 11th in pass plays percentage in 2010 and 9th in 2009. Worst-case scenario is Hopkins finally gives Houston a second option in the pass game while they tap the break on the run plays. Best case is he develops into the next Andre Johnson and learns from the man himself. While Austin may edge Hopkins out because of the immediate impact, I wouldn’t lose sleep if I ended up with Hopkins. Hopkins is 30th in our wide receiver ranks.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) – Patterson is the most raw of the bunch after spending one season in D-1. Minnesota ended up trading a Tavon Austin-style package (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to New England to get him. Build-wise he stands at 6′ 2″ and 220 pounds and put on quite a show at the combine with a 4.42 40-time and 37″ vertical. The potential is sky high but that’s all we have at this point. Luckily, Minnesota does plan on easing Patterson into the system so there’s time for Patterson to pick it up. He also gets to learn from one of the game’s best route runners in Greg Jennings and have the best running back in the game to take the attention off. It’s a great situation for such a raw talent like Patterson. Now the downside. His quarterback is Christian Ponder who might, or might not, be around for the long term will need to step it up for Minnesota to get Patterson’s full potential. No more 18/12 TD:INT seasons. Either Ponder improves or Minnesota drafts or signs an upgrade but the status quo won’t work. Of course, this could all be for not and Patterson could be a giant bust. For dynasty purposes, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on Patterson but would much rather get a runner or even a tight end like Tyler Eifert. I might even consider linebackers if you’re in a dynasty IDP league. But don’t sleep on Patterson if he starts to slip. He sits at 32 in our rankings.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here. Fort Part IV click here.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Analysis -Rookie Quarterbacks

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While rookie quarterbacks are rarely valued in re-draft fantasy leagues, in dynasty fantasy leagues they’re valued just as much as the real NFL. In 2012, we were spoiled with, not one but, two franchise quarterbacks entering the league in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. 2013 doesn’t afford the same quality at the top but does have a few options further down the list.

  • EJ Manuel (BUF) – The first quarterback taken off the board in the 2013 draft, Manuel was a surprise pick for Buffalo. For fantasy purposes, he shows the most promise for an early return. He has a superior runner in CJ Spiller and quality receiving target in Stevie Johnson. At worst, Manuel has the second easiest path to starting. Kevin Kolb currently sits atop the Bills depth chart but him and Manuel recently split snaps at mini-camp. Additionally, Kolb has yet to start more than 9 times in a season due to injuries and general ineffectiveness. If Manual, who has two inches and 20 pounds on Kolb, shows any promise in training camp, Buffalo will start him early. He didn’t get drafted to sit. His dynasty prospects are a little murkier only because of the many unknowns. Buffalo has had a complete regime change from the top down that should buy Manual time to develop. Only time will tell if first-year general manager Doug Whaley and first year coach Doug Marrone can provide a strong environment
  • Geno Smith (NYJ) – Smith was largely perceived to be the first quarterback taken in the draft but fell to the Jets in the second round. Smith definitely put up the numbers of a first round pick at West Virginia but was still not as accurate as scouts had hoped. While it certainly wouldn’t take much to unseat Mark Sanchez, the fact is Smith has done nothing to give the Jets any reason to even consider starting Smith. Furthermore, Smith’s development doesn’t appear to be a priority of the Jets coaching staff. Last year, Mike Shananhan purposely blended the pro playbook with RG3’s college playbook in an effort to east the transition. The Jets have no such plans. Yikes. Smith certainly doesn’t warrant a high pick in dynasty leagues.
  • Matt Barkley (PHI) – No prospect fell further from before the 2012 season than Barkley. Originally thought to go first overall before opening 2012, Barkley fell to the fourth round and Philadelphia. Once there, he immediately was penciled in behind Mike Vick and Nick Foles. It’s not hard to realize Vick (33) won’t be an Eagle much longer (possibly sooner rather than later) but Nick Foles still looms. Just 24, Foles still has three years left on his rookie contract and is giving Vick a run for his money on the starting job. Still, there’s something to be said for being picked by the new coach and Barkley has impressed in OTA’s.  Barkley probably won’t contribute this year but is worth a stash in dynasty leagues, especially taxi squads.
  • Tyler Wilson (OAK) – One of the likelier rookies to see playing time early is Wilson. Early reports out of Oakland mini-camp have Wilson impressing. Of course, he’ll need to keep that up in live action but it shouldn’t be difficult to force his way in the conversation. With Terrell Pryor unimpressive so far and Matt Flynn getting balls batted down in non-contact drills, it’s not inconceivable that Wilson gets started early. Long-term, however, his chances of sticking around in Oakland aren’t great. Unless Dennis Allen can improve on his 4-12 debut, and there have been no personnel changes to suggest otherwise, the Raiders will be bad again. The badder they are, the higher in the draft they’ll go and increase their chances of drafting a franchise quarterback (hello Teddy Bridgewater). Truly, the only person that can help Tyler Wilson’s dynasty value is Tyler Wilson. He’d be another taxi squad candidate with a decent chance to start this year.
  • Mike Glennon (TB) – Perhaps the most intriguing prospect of this year’s class, Glennon could create a perfect storm for himself to take over in Tampa. At 6′ 7″ with a huge arm, Glennon has the physical tools to be a starter with NFL Matchup’s Greg Cosell even comparing Glennon to Matt Ryan as a prospect. He can make the throws  and will be given the opportunity to make an impression in pre-season. It all falls on incumbent Josh Freeman to stick around after his rookie contract expires this year. Freeman has been uneven with seasons of 25 and 27 touchdowns but also seasons of 17, 18, and 22 interceptions, sometimes in the same year. Freeman will need a great year to warrant an extension. The bottom line is Tampa has the weapons to make either quarterback successful. It would be worth a mid-level pick to invest in Glennon.

Rookie Tight End Sleepers

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While updating the latest tight end rankings, there were several rookies that stood out. If you’re in a dynasty league, adding unknown rookies at the end of your draft can result in the next Dennis Pitta. And while such rookies as Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed have already popped up on dynasty rankings, there’s several others that haven’t. Let’s take a look at a few that you may want to become familiar with before your dynasty draft.

  • Dion Sims (MIA) – At 6′ 5″ and 262 pounds, Sims has the prototypical build of a successful tight end. Brought it primarily as a blocker and backup to newly-signed Dustin Keller, Sims has nonetheless seen a lot of the field in OTA’s. Keller only played in eight games last year due to injuries so if history repeats itself, look for Sims to play even more snaps. Long-term, if Sims can evolve as a pass catcher, he can ride the wave that Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace are creating.
  • Vance McDonald (SF) – While carrying the same size as Sims (6′ 4″ / 267), McDonald actually has the opposite profile heading into his NFL career in that he was primarily a receiving tight end and rarely lined up in the three-point stance. Drafted in the 2nd round to take Delanie Walker’s role in the offense, he’s impressed the coaches and the quarterbacks so far with his catching ability. Of course, teams have yet to start making contact and the 49ers have yet to determine if McDonald can fulfill his primary duty of blocking so they can free up Vernon Davis. McDonald has entered into an ideal dynasty fantasy situation with a young franchise quarterback, a great team foundation that should be good for years to come and a tight end playing in front of him who will turn 30 next year with an expiring contract not long after.
  • Chris Gragg (BUF) – While Gragg is a tad shorter than either Sims or McDonald (6′ 3″), he was, without a doubt, the fastest of the bunch coming out of the draft after clocking a 4.5 40-time. Thanks to Scott Chandler still recovering from his ACL tear suffered at the end of last season, Gragg has been taking the first team snaps in OTA’s. Already, Coach Doug Marrone has mentioned using him vertically to create matchup problems with his combination of size and speed. I believe Gragg will have the earliest opportunity of these sleepers to contribute early. His dynasty prospects are even better as he’s playing behind Chandler, who not only turns 28 this year but has an expiring contract as well.
  • Luke Willson (SEA) – Perhaps the most physically impressive sleeper of the bunch, Willson stands at 6′ 5″ and 251 pounds with a 4.51 40-time. He’s also the biggest question mark after making only 78 catches in his entire collegiate career at Rice. Additionally, he spent his senior season missing six games to injury while backing up Vance McDonald (see above). But with incumbent Zach Miller coming off a torn plantar fascia in the playoffs and previously thought second stringer Anthony McCoy tearing his Achilles not long ago, the door is wide open for Willson to make an impression. In fact, he already has at rookie minicamp in May. Willson was able to get behind the defense, make tough catches, and find the end zone. Willson’s performance in training camp will be the sole factor in just how much he contributes early. For dynasty, he’ll have to outperform no less than three candidates for the starting job. But with no clear-cut leader, that may not be difficult.

Kiko Alonso Dynasty Analysis

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On the official Bills website today, they take a look at the race to be the starter at ILB.  As author Chris Brown mentioned, the Bills haven’t had a consistent starter at ILB since Paul Posluszny in 2010.

All indications are Kiko Alonso will start the season there after being drafted 46th overall. New coach Doug Marrone recently said, “he’s shown he has all the ability to play all three downs.” Alonso flashed that ability in his last year at Oregon when he was all over the field recording 87 total tackles, 16 tackles for a loss, four interceptions, seven passes defended, two forced fumbles and a sack.

New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will play a big, if not the biggest, role in who the starting inside linebacker is. Whether it’s Alonso or other candidates  Nigel Bradham, Arthur Moats or Bryan Scott, recent history indicates Pettine’s defenses haven’t had a consistent tackler at the position. In his four years as the New York Jets coordinator, inside linebacker David Harris had 127, 99, 86, 123 from 2009-2012. Harris is still an above average fantasy linebacker but more consistency from Pettine’s linebackers would be preferred.

Assuming Alonso starts the season as the starter, he should put up LB2/3 numbers right away as most inside linebackers do. Said Pettine, “he has come in and he is as close to NFL ready as I’ve seen a rookie linebacker step into this system.” Additionally, the Bills are in full-scale re-build mode under new general manager Doug Whaley, Marrone and raw rookie quarterback E.J. Manual. This should buy Alonso plenty of time to develop his game before the real pressure builds.

Long-term, the only potential hurdle is his few run-ins with the law. Currently, Alonso sits at 30 in our latest overall linebacker rankings. Assuming he can avoid those in the future, I’d have no problem taking Alonso as the second rookie linebacker in a dynasty draft.

Matt Forte to get more catches

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One could argue that Matt Forte peaked in his rookie season. After all, he carried the ball (the cursed) 300+ times while setting career-highs in rushing yards (1,238), touchdowns (12), and receptions (63). He’s averaged right at 1,000 yards rushing since and has seen his receptions steadily drop to a career-low 44 last year. At 27, there’s been a lot of wear-and-tear on those tires but help may be on the way, at least for the short term.

With the addition of Marc Trestman as Head Coach, Forte should expect to see more routes and throws his way. Trestman’s offenses over 10 years as an offensive coordinate averaged 65 catches for the running back. With Jay Cutler at quarterback and an (allegedly) improved offensive line, Forte should have no problem matching his career high. But while the short-term looks bright, the added work should speed up the downhill arc of his career. Forte already has 1,200 carries through his first five years and has been nicked up in the past with a sprained MCL in 2011 and an ankle sprain in 2012. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to have Forte on your roster as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 if you’re in win-now mode in 2013. But his shelf life at that level can’t be expected to be more than 2-3 years. Look to sell high after the next year or two.

Why are safeties are better than corners in fantasy?

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Looking at the latest DB rankings for dynasty, you’ll see safeties take the top 1o spots. This is similar to the DL rankings that put ends at the top of the list over interior linemen.  But why is that?

If you were to look at the top tackling DB’s last year, you’d find a safety-heavy list with only three corners in the top 20. In fact, there’s no more than four corners in the top 20 for years and there were none in 2009. The fact is, tackles are the most consistent stats when looking at DB’s so it’s best to rank them by that. Plus, even if tackles are 1 point in your league while interceptions are 4, you’d still be better served drafting a tackling machine like Morgan Burnett who’s had 230 tackles over the last two years. Tackles are just more common than interceptions and happen at a higher ratio than the tackle/interception point ratio in most, if not all, dynasty leagues.

But why do safeties have way more tackles? Inherently, they’re the safety valve of the defense. They are there to prevent plays from going 10, 15, 20 yards. Corners, good corners anyway, are there to prevent the receivers from even catching the ball. That’s why corners will never have high tackle numbers if they’re picking passes off. The top six leaders in interceptions last year had 60-76-64-55-76-53 tackles respectively. Plus, corners are relegated to one side of the field while the safeties cover much more ground on any given play. They’re instinctively playing the ball while the corners have specific assignments.

Bottom line – get a safety as your DB1. Only if you’ve got that locked up would I even consider drafting a corner.

Dynasty Defensive Linemen Rankings – Top Tier

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Looking at the recently published defensive linemen rankings in dynasty fantasy football leagues, there’s a consensus at the top. Houston end JJ Watt should be at the top of any IPD list. He exploded in his second year with a league leading 20.5 sacks and, maybe an even more impressive, 16 passes defended from the line. With Wade Phillips back leading the defense, and Watt entering his age-24 season, there’s no reason to doubt Watt’s potential. Whether it’s dynasty or re-draft leagues, Watt is at the top.

Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Football Giants was JJ Watt before JJ Watt was JJ Watt. In 2011, JPP had a breakout in his second year, just like Watt, with 16.5 sacks and 7 passes defended. But the Giants defense overall regressed mightily to the 2nd worst in the league statistically. On top of that, Pierre-Paul recently completed back surgery which puts his status to start the season in jeopardy. Even if he were to start in Week 1, the G-Men don’t plan on taxing him in training camp and pre-season which might delay his conditioning. At least he’s only entering his age-24 season (like Watt) so there’s time for JPP to bounce back.

St. Louis Ram Robert Quinn, the consensus #3 DL in dynasty, is all about potential. Only entering his age-23 season, Quinn’s coming off a 10.5 sack season while only starting 14 games. He’s also getting a new defensive coordinator in Tim Walton who previously coached the secondary in Detroit under Jim Schwartz, who coached under current St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher. Walton led an average secondary in Detroit that did no better than 16th in opposing passing yards. Hopefully, Walton can get more out of Quinn regardless.

Dynasty Linebacker Rankings – Top Tier

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After just calculating the amalgamated linebacker rankings, it’s clear there’s a top tier of five. Luke Kuechly of Carolina is the consensus #1 no matter what rankings you’re looking at. The combination of his age (22) and the fact that he’ll be a three-down back on a pretty bad team means he should see plenty of opportunities to be right in the action for many years to come.

The next two spots are interchangeable and include San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman and St. Louis’ James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis is another three-down back playing the middle. He seemingly had his hands on everything – four passes defended, two interceptions and 117 solo tackles to go with 25 assists. The guy is a beast and is only ranked lower than Kuechly because of his age (26). The same could be said of Bowman who actually had more total tackles than Laurinaitis (148-142), more sacks (2.0-0.5), more passes defended (6-4). He’s also a year younger (25-26). If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick one, I’d go with Bowman.

The next two include Seattle’s Bobby Wagner, with a similar resume than Laurinaitis and Bowman but is just 23.

Next is the first outside linebacker of the group, Lavonte David. The second year linebacker from Tampa Bay is just 23 and has the potential to rack up sacks with 19 tackles for a loss in his rookie season.

Bottom line is you can’t go wrong if one of these guys is your lead LB for the next five years.

The Matthew Stafford Contract Extension

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Contract extensions don’t usually mean much to fantasy football re-drafters but they do when Matthew Stafford is your franchise quarterback in a dynasty league. Stafford just signed a contract extension through 2017. While this news is great for Stafford’s dynasty value it’s especially great for Calvin Johnson’s, who’s signed through 2019. To have stability in the quarterback position is extremely important and should keep CJ at the top of dynasty big boards. Hopefully Stafford can keep getting 200 targets to Johnson for many years to come. Needless to say it also has positive value for other Lions like Ryan Broyles, who has the potential to be a very good #2 WR in the Lions offense for many years to come. Now would especially be a good time to buy low since he’s recovering from ACL surgery. It also solidifies Brandon Pettigrew as a top-15 tight end option for at least 2-3 years and makes Reggie Bush a solid top-20 option at running back for at least this year.

Who’s the third best tight end in dynasty fantasy football?

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Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are the two best tight ends in football. Fantasy football, real football, dynasty football, Madden football.

After those two, however, is a considerable debate. If you average together rankings from Pro Football Focus and Dynasty Warehouse you see a group of four players that are clearly ranked ahead of the pack: Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta (click here to see the whole list!). Let’s look at a couple different angles:

  • Age – Since you’re in a dynasty league there is a premium on age. Rudolph (24) would win that battle as he has four years on the next tight end in the group, Dennis Pitta (28), followed by VD (29) and Witten (31). However, youth also means inexperience and there is no guarantee that Rudolph will fulfill the lofty expectations he has. Personally, I need to see results before I’m convinced. Rudolph’s line of 53/493/9 is comparable to Rob Gronkowski (55/790/11). The only difference is Gronk did it in five fewer games. The lack of production may or may not be a result of Christian Ponder’s poor play but the bottom line is Ponder is back for another year which means Rudolph’s potential is limited.
  • Targets – Dennis Pitta broke out last year (as evidenced by me taking him in round 20 or later) to the tune of 61/669/11. Offseason reports indicate it’ll only get better. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 112 (!) targets, Joe Flacco is going to have to spread the ball around. Even, if you were to divvy up the targets evenly among the 11 players that caught a pass from Flacco in 2012, Pitta’s in line for 10 more targets and 6-7 more catches this year. However, that’s assuming defenses don’t pay more attention to Pitta which  they most certainly will. Additionally, without another receiver to take the heat off the middle of the field like Boldin did so well, linebackers are going to zero in on Pitta. I go back to my thoughts about Rudolph and want to see more before I’m convinced.
  • QB Upgrade – While Kyle Rudolph is still a year or two away from an upgrade,  Vernon Davis finally got one last year in Colin Kaepernick. Now, you could argue that VD performed well despite the lack of arm strength from Alex Smith. In fact, he was awesome: 2009-78/965/13; 2010-56/914/7; 2011-67/792/6. However, you also see a downward trend that coincides with Michael Crabtree’s rise: 2009-48/625/2; 2010-55/741/6; 2011-72/874/4. This all led to a 2012 that saw VD with 41 catches on 61 targets compared to Crabtree’s 85 catches on 126 targets. Things looked dire (fantasy-wise) for VD with the trade of Anquan Boldin but with Crabtree’s injury, we’re still back where we were last year. As a 49er fan, I hope the trend doesn’t continue but unless they make a concerted effort to get Davis the ball,  I just don’t see him getting back to 2009-2010 level.
  • Verdict – If I had to pick one out of this group to go with it’d be Jason Witten. Since his breakout, age-25-30 seasons started in 2007, he’s averaged 92/1018/5. Looking ahead, I think a fair comparison is Tony Gonzales (76/945/6 in his 25-30 years old seasons) , who’s still chugging along at age 37. Since turning 31, Gonzales has averaged ONLY 84/877/7. Hypothetically, this gives Witten five years of 84/877/7. And the fact that Tony Romo and his gun-slinging ways aren’t going anywhere, I think you the stability needed to continue a great career.