Author Archives: dodgermoore

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 29th

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Training camp is kicking into high gear. Let’s see what we got:

  • Of course, the season-ending injuries to Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta were the big stories. We looked at what they mean, fantasy-wise, here.
  • Vance McDonald looks to get a good look in the pre-season to determine what his role will be early on. We looked at McDonald’s long-term prospects here. With a good, young offense and the mentoring of one of the best, the situation is ideal for McDonald to become an asset in dynasty leagues.
  • Kevin Kolb got more first-string snaps early on but E.J. Manual had his share. He’ll be given every opportunity to win the job so draft accordingly.
  • Jake Locker looked shaky in the beginning of camp but has picked it up. With a finite supply of starting quarterbacks, this is good news for those forced to roll with Locker as a backup.
  • Zach Ertz is also off to a good start. While, at first glance, it didn’t look like there’d be a place for Ertz, his receiving ability is too good to ignore. And with the same finite options as quarterback, drafting a quality tight end with promise is crucial. Ertz is a full-go in dynasty leagues.

Remember, if you’re able to read this, it’s the best day ever.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part III

Posted on by Standard 4

Six backs were selected in the fifth round of the 2013 NFL draft. All would be considered sleepers in dynasty fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look:

  • Denard Robinson (JAC) – Originally a quarterback at Michigan, Robinson was drafted 135th overall. Truly a jack of all trades, it seems as if Robinson’s speed is probably best suited at running back seeing as he ran a 4.34 unofficial 40-time at the combine. He grew into the role in rookie camp but it still adjusting after dropping a pass and fumbling a handoff. Robinson would be the #3 running back on the depth chart and should be stashed by all MJD owners in the event his contract isn’t renewed.
  • Stepfan Taylor (ARI) – Drafted 140th overall out of Stanford, Taylor currently sits behind Rashard Mendendhall and Ryan Williams on the depth chart. With coach Bruce Arians already calling the running back race for 26-year old Mendenhall, and the team sticking by 23-year old Ryan Williams, there doesn’t seem to be a clear path for Taylor. In addition, thanks to the NFL’s graduation rules, Taylor is also starting behind the other backs. Only draft Taylor if you have either Mendenhall or Williams on your current roster.
  • Joseph Randle (DAL) – Drafted 151st overall by Dallas, Randle has already been anointed the backup to DeMarco Murray and expected to carry the load, should it come to that. Randle is still recovering from thumb surgery but should be ready to go. While nothing special in college, the fact that he’s backing up one of the most brittle. Additionally, Randle now becomes a part of the revolving door of Dallas running backs which has had four different leading rushers in 7 years. This could be a gift and a curse for Randle but, for now, don’t pin your hopes on him.
  • Chris Thompson (WAS) – Going 154th overall to Washington, Thompson is a massive unknown. He broke his back and college and tore his ACL in consecutive years at Florida State. But Washington feels like he can do it all. At the moment, there’s a pileup in the Washington backfield but Thompson is one to remember simply because Shanahan is so unpredictable. After all, incumbent Alfred Morris was drafted in the 6th round.
  • Zac Stacy (STL) – St. Louis traded up to 160 to pick Stacy out of Vanderbilt after averaging 5.5 YPC on over 200 carries in the tough SEC last year. Stacy proved he can handle the load there but will have to compete with Daryl Richardson (23) and Isiah Pead (23).  Richardson is projected as the starter after averaging 4.8 YPC on about 100 carries in his rookie year. However, coach Jeff Fisher indicated he’s not opposed to a running back by committee approach. Stacy is talented but will have to beat two young, good players first to get noticed.
  • Mike Gillislee (MIA) – Picked 164th out of Florida, Gillislee was nothing special coming out of the draft with the look of a long-time backup. He’s also not caught up to number two Daniel Thomas as of yet and would start the season as the third running back if it started today. Gillislee is off the dynasty radar at the moment unless you’re a concered Lamar Miller owner.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here.

Dennis Pitta, Jeremy Maclin out for the year

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First it was Jeremy Maclin then Dennis Pitta. Maclin to a torn ACL and Pitta to a dislocated hip. The dynasty analysis:

  • Dennis Pitta – Pitta was ranked no later than six in dynasty rankings. With Anquan Boldin traded, Pitta was in line for a ton of targets and receptions. And with the lack of reliable tight end targets around the league, could have even improved his dynasty draft ranking. Now Pitta has a fractured hip which is not all that dissimilar from what Bo Jackson had which ended his career. In fact, two of the eight players with the same type of injury had their careers ended because of it. Needless to say, there’s little reason to draft Pitta unless you have some sort of injured reserve in your leagues. Ed Dickson will improve on his 44th dynasty ranking. He did have a respectable 54/528/5 line in his only season as a starter but that will probably be the ceiling for him.
  • Jeremy Maclin – Maclin was ranked 25th in dynasty rankings heading into the season (and a contract year) before tearing his ACL. 25th may have been high seeing as Chip Kelly goes run-first and the quarterback question is still up in the air. But showing glimpses of talent, being the #1 target on a team and at just 25 years old, Maclin still made a good investment in dynasty leagues. However, now he’ll have to wait until his age-26 season and find a team willing to take a chance. For the Eagles this year, Riley Cooper will take over. If a player of Maclin’s ability produced no more than 66 yards a game over four years, I don’t know that Cooper can do much more.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part III

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Part three of our look at dynasty rookie wide receivers includes those drafted in the third round of the 2013 NFL draft. These would be true sleepers in any format.

  • Terrance Williams (DAL) – Drafted 74th overall out of Baylor, Williams was expected to compete for the third receiver position in Dallas. At 6′ 2″ and 208 pounds, Williams was billed as a Mike Wallace-type vertical threat. However, Williams has had issues doing the most basic receiving duties like, you know, receiving. Williams seems to be another in the revolving door of third receivers the Cowboys have had over the years. He’s a late round prospect in dynasty leagues and a must-own for any Miles Austin owners, even if it’s for the taxi squad. But don’t spend too high of a pick.
  • Keenan Allen (SD) – Allen was drafted two picks after Williams at 76 to San Diego. Allen was Cal’s all-time leading receiver after just three seasons. He excels in route running and receiving but ran a disappointing 4.7 before the draft. However, the Chargers think it should have been closer to a 4.5 since Allen was coming off a PCL tear. Even so, he currently sits 4th on the Chargers depth chart behind Danario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, and Vincent Brown. Plus, Philip Rivers continues to trend downwards with less zip on his ball than ever before. His talent outweighs his situation so there is hope. Allen currently sits at 46 in dynasty rankings.
  • Marquise Goodwin (BUF) – Drafted two picks after Allen, Goodwin went 78th to Buffalo out of Texas. With a 4.27 40-time, Goodwin set the third fastest 40-time since the combine went digital in1999.  Hopefully, his 5′ 9″ stature doesn’t prevent the Bills from using him on the outside where he, literally, had to slow down on a couple deep bombs. As with the other Bills position players, their long-term success will hinge on E.J. Manual. Hopefully, Manual will learn to get Goodwin the ball. He’s the first prospect from this list that I can get excited about.
  • Markus Wheaton (PIT) –  Drafted 79th by Pittsburgh, Wheaton was brought in to presumably, be groomed for Mike Wallace’s old spot. According to former scout Daniel Jeremiah, Wheaton “fits the new mold they’ve got there, guys who can win one-on-ones with quickness, but he’s also got big-play ability with top speed and feisty toughness.” Wheaton enters a stable quarterback situation, a clear path to the #3 receiving spot immediately and an offense coaching staff responsible for 3,700 passing yards last year. Hopefully Wheaton can carve out a piece of that early and often.
  • Stedman Bailey (STL) – Drafted 92nd overall by the Rams, Bailey is buried behind Brian Quick, Chris Givens, and West Virginia teammate Tavon Austin, even though Bailey led the Mountaineers in receiving yards and had an amazing 25 touchdowns. Pre-combine he was reported to look impressive with good routes and catching everything in sight. He only slipped thanks to sub-par 40 times and other combine stats. Bailey is at the mercy of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense but would be a great pick on most other teams with less competition. As it is, he’s worth nothing more than a taxi squad pick at this point.

For Part I click here. For Part II click here. For Part IV click here.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part II

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The second edition of our look at dynasty rookie running backs gets into sleeper pick territory. These next backs were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the 2013 NFL draft and offer plenty of intrigue.

  • Knile Davis (KC) – Drafted 96th overall, Davis was a combine stud with a 4.3 40-time and 31 reps on the bench press (which led all running backs). But when it comes to game time, he’s being compared to Shonn Greene. He concluded his college career with 8 fumbles and a 3.4 YPC. Looking at the situation in Kansas City, there is no path to starters minutes with Jamaal Charles. Nor should there be. Unless Davis can show promise in the few opportunities he’ll get, there’s not much to go off there. The only real reason to draft Davis is as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles.
  • Johnathan Franklin (GB) – The Packers traded up to the 125th pick to snag Franklin to go along with Eddie Lacy. The Packers got great value as some had Franklin as the best running back in the draft after averaging over six yards per carry at UCLA. But at the same time, it remains to be seen where Franklin will fit in the new look backfield. Lacy is the obvious first stringer and goal line back but is Franklin a change of pace? 3rd down option? If he can get a cut of Aaron Rodgers throws, he’d be worth something as soon as this year. If not, Franklin is nothing more than a Lacy handcuff at this point.
  • Marcus Lattimore (SF) – After totaling almost 1,500 yards and 19 total touchdowns as a freshman, Lattimore tore his left ACL the next year and completely ripped up his knee the year after, tearing 3 -CL’s (ACL, PCL, MCL) in his right knee. Widely projected as a top pick, Lattimore fell to the 49ers who, with their abundance of picks, was able to draft Lattimore as a luxury. Dynasty fantasy football players should probably treat Lattimore the same way. He won’t contribute any this year but would be great on the taxi squad. The offense in San Francisco is ideal but there’s no clear path to being the starter. Frank Gore has at least one more year while  there’s competition for carries from Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. Treat Lattimore as a luxury instead of a necessity.

None of these backs will contribute much this year but all are worth keeping an eye on for taxi squad. If NFL teams think this highly of them, you should too. Two are in the top 35 of running backs in dynasty ranks.

Part I click here. For Part III click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 26th

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Giddy up:

  • Surprising news from Seattle where Percy Harvin severely injured his hip while training which could knock him out for the year. If so, this would be the second consecutive year and significantly damage his current #7 ranking among dynasty receivers. As for the rest of Seattle’s offense, they did pretty good without Harvin last year so I don’t see a dramatic effect on their production.
  • Ronnie Hillman opened camp as the starter with Montee Ball also practicing with the first team. I still don’t think that picture gets any clearer this season and could see a hot-hand approach and that’s not including Knowshon Moreno in the mix. Don’t draft Ball expecting to get a dynasty franchise back.
  • Santonio Holmes might not be ready for Week 1. AVOID!
  • Arian Foster is starting camp on the PUP list. Not a huge surprise but just another nick that Foster has to deal with. His half a yard drop in YPC the last three years is more of a concern for me. Still just 26, it’s hard to say how much longer Foster will be at the top of draft boards. He’s still a top five option in dynasty rankings but Foster fantasy owners need to check in the availability of Ben Tate ASAP.

 

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers – Part II

Posted on by Standard 4

Previously, we looked at the  three receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and what kind of impact to expect from them in dynasty leagues. Part II will look at those receivers drafted in the second round. Typically, they can provide more value as you’ll be drafting them later.

  • Justin Hunter (TEN) – Before the draft, Greg Cosell called Hunter the most physically gifted receiver among those that were eligible. After his 6′ 4″ frame ran a 4.4 40-time in the combine, Hunter was drafted 34th overall by Tennessee. Hunter has the tools but will he have the opportunity to be successful? Hunter joins Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright in the Tennessee rotation and is coming off a hamstring injury in OTA’s. Perhaps most damning is that Jake Locker is still the Tennessee quarterback. There’s a lot to overcome so it might be wise to use a taxi-squad spot for Hunter initially. Plus, there’s other receiver that were drafted later than Hunter that have a better opportunity to make an immediate impact. Hunter currently sits at 49 in average dynasty rankings.
  • Robert Woods (BUF) – Woods was drafted 41st overall from USC after posting a 74/849/11 line his junior year. Of course this was after his sophomore season of 111/1,292/15.  Physically, Woods has a pedestrian build at 6′ 0″ and 190 pounds but is considered the most NFL-ready of any receiver thanks to a quick grasp of the playbook and good route-running. He is walking into a good situation with Buffalo hitting the reset button in the off-season. With a new coach and quarterback, who he’s already hitting it off with, Woods has time to prove he belongs. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting opposite Steve Johnson in the Fall. Definitely worth a mid-level draft pick in dynasty circles. Woods is 51 in combined dynasty rankings.
  • Aaron Dobson (NE) –  My personal favorite of the second round picks, Dobson is walking into an ideal situation. Drafted 59th overall out of Marshall, the 6′ 3″ Dobson is just one of the many new faces in the New England receiving corps. which means everyone is  starting fresh. Additionally, last year’s New England team was fourth in the league in pass attempts. Drafted to provide some height, Dobson was compared by Cosell to Larry FItzgerald in terms of size and hands. If he can keep up with Tom Brady and the playbook, there’s nothing stopping Dobson from being successful early and often in dynasty leagues. And with Belichick, supposedly, gushing about him while praising his basketball background (hello, Jimmy Graham), Dobson is set up for big things now and in the future. With the uncertainty in New England about who’s going to catch the ball, it might not be a bad idea to grab Dobson early in dynasty drafts.  Expect his current 59th spot in our dynasty ranks to improve.

Part I click here. For Part III click here. For Part IV click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Update – July 25th

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Let’s do this:

  • DeAngelo Williams is penciled in as the starter at running back until Jonathan Stewart can prove he’s healthy. When that will be, no one’s exactly sure. Williams is sure to be of some value this year with one of the best quarterbacks in the league and with no additions to the receiving corps. After 2013 is another story for the 30-year old which is why he sits at only 52 in dynasty rankings. Only draft/trade for Williams if you’re in win-now mode.
  • With Robert Griffin III still recovering from his knee injury, Kirk Cousins will take first-string snaps at quarterback for most of the pre-season. In his lone start last year, Cousins completed 70% of his passes on 37 attempts for 329 yards in a 38-21 win at Cleveland. With a solid pre-season, Cousins can improve his stock even further. Signed to a four-year rookie contract, the Redskins will use Cousins as much as they can before he makes great trade bait a la Matt Schaub. I love Cousins as a taxi-squad player that could be a starter in 2-3 years. And if you’re an RG3 fantasy owner, what are you waiting for?
  • The Chiefs seem to be setting up rookie tight end Travis Kelce to line up in a variety of positions which bodes well for targets. Drafted in the third round, Kelce is competing with Anthony Fasano and Tony Moeaki for snaps. Fasano was just signed in March but has traditionally been a blocker while Moeaki has significant injury concerns. Kelce had serious character issues coming in to the draft but, after being drafted in the 3rd round, would appear to be set up to be the long-term solution in Kansas City. Kelce currently sits at 20 in dynasty rankings thanks to his age and the fact that tight end is such a premium.

Dynasty Rookie Running Backs – Part I

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Conventional re-draft fantasy football leagues emphasize getting a running back early due to the lack of quality personnel. In a fantasy league where your only concern is the next 16 games, it’s easy to identify who’s capable of being successful in the short term. But just because running backs are so essential in re-draft leagues doesn’t necessarily mean the same in dynasty leagues. While still important, running backs in dynasty leagues are more easily replaceable than a franchise quarterback, not unlike the NFL. Be careful of how much you offer up to get that rookie running back. As you’ll see below (and in our rankings), there’s plenty of options at running back. Let’s take a look at the first ones drafted this past April.

  • Giovani Bernard (CIN) – The first running back off the board in the NFL draft is the one to own in dynasty leagues. After being compared to Ray Rice at the combine, Cincinnati took Bernard to compliment Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Early on, Cincinnati has gushed about his big play ability, even splitting Bernard out wide. With Green-Ellis’ contract expiring after 2014, that leaves Bernard in the drivers seat to be the man in Cincinnati. Sure, this year he’ll be the primary backup for Green-Ellis while getting the 3rd down work but don’t be surprised if they can’t keep him off the field in 2013.
  • Le’Veon Bell (PIT) – The 48th overall pick from Michigan State, Bell is a big boy at 6′ 1″ and 244 pounds. Scouts expect him to get the first shot at being a 3-down back due to his ability to block and catch. Plus, there is little-to-no competition among the returning runners like Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Bell entered, perhaps, the best situation for a fantasy running back. If wouldn’t be a reach to take Bell over Bernard in your dynasty fantasy drafts.
  • Montee Ball (DEN) – Drafted 58th overall, Ball was entering a crowded backfield in Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman. After McGahee was cut, people assumed that Ball was going to be the man but the situation is still murky. With Knowshon Moreno rushing for 100 yards in a the last couple games of 2012 and 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman still in the fold, it’s not as if Ball has a clear path to being the starter. Furthermore, his heavy workload at Wisconsin will cut into his career carries. For dynasty leagues, it’s something to consider if you’re needing a running back early on. I’d avoid Ball until the running back picture in Denver is more clear.
  • Eddie Lacy (GB) – Lacy was presumed to be the first running back off the board but ended up being the 4th. He slipped because of concerns over a fused toe that might cause problems down the road. For dynasty fantasy leaguers, Green Bay isn’t exactly the most ideal place for a running back simply because Aaron Rodgers is too good to take the ball out of his hands. Plus, he does have some competition in fellow rookie Jonathan Franklin and 2012 holdover DuJuan Harris who did show some promise towards the end of the season. On the positive side, he’s been compared to Steven Jackson and should have plenty of opportunities for goal-line work. But how long Lacy lasts remains to be seen. I’d feel safe drafting Lacy in the 2nd round of your dynasty draft. Anything higher would give me pause.
  • Christine Michael (SEA) – Perhaps the most intriguing back in this years draft, Michael was drafted with the last pick of the second round by Seattle. Michael didn’t start off his NFL career well by ‘taking too much NyQuil.’ Once he got into camp, his pass protection was questioned, which is common for rookie running backs and can prevent them from getting on the field. But there’s just so much talent to offset the negatives. ESPN’s Matt Williamson has labeled him a top-10 talent in 2016. Plus, since Marshawn Lynch has been missing camp, Michael’s been the one to draw the first team reps over Robert Turbin. Pete Carroll has been one to let the best man win no matter the age or experience and Michael may just have too much talent to keep him off the field. He may not be one to draft in your dynasty drafts first round but could be a steal in the second.

For Part II click here. For Part III click here.

Daily Dynasty Football Report – July 24th

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What’s happening around the league and how does it affect your dynasty team?

  • Santonio Holmes is starting training camp on the PUP list. If he can be medically cleared of his foot injury before training camp is over, he can start the season.  If not, he won’t be eligible to play until Week 7. As if there weren’t enough reasons to avoid our 66th ranked receiver, here you go. The whole Jets, with the possible exception of Chris Ivory, is one to avoid in dynasty.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw is also starting camp on the PUP list albeit with better prospects than Holmes. Signed as a temporary solution at running back for the high-octane Colts offense, Bradshaw should be ok to start the season. At just 27, it’s possible to get a couple of years out of Bradshaw in dynasty leagues which is why he sits at 36 in our combined ranks. But it is Ahmad Bradshaw we’re talking about, who’s only played all 16 games once in his five-year career so his injuries are worth monitoring.
  • Dez Bryant is doing Dez Bryant things at Cowboys camp. With a pass-happy offense, a good quarterback, and no doubt about who the man is, it’s possible Bryant is underrated at #4 in dynasty ranks.
  • Mike Williams signed a six-year extension to his rookie contract. While never passing 1,000 yards, Williams does get in the end zone with seasons of 9 and 11 TD’s. He has an excellent supporting cast around him with the only uncertainty being at quarterback. But whether Josh Freeman plays well enough to stick around or the Mike Glennon show begins, Williams should be able to produce. He’s currently at #41 in dynasty ranks.
  • Lastly, Trent Richardson dynasty owners should gear up for 300 carries this year. Just 22, Richardson is the youngest running back in the top 10 in our running back ranks which means you could have a dynasty stud for a decade. But conventional wisdom would conclude that many carries at that young an age could be a concern down the road. 13 players have carried it 300 times in their age-21 or 22 season (Edgerrin James did it twice). Of the 13, I count no less than seven backs that are Hall of Fame worth including Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Walter Payton, Curtis Martin, Edge, and the all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith. So it can be done.

And finally, if you’re able to read this, or anything else on the internet, it’s the best day ever.