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Your Dynasty Question Answered, Part III

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We roll on with more of your questions. Be sure to get your questions in at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com.

Ben asks:

So I’m in a 12 team standard dynasty league. We keep 15 and play with IDP’s and our cut down is 10 players.  We start: QB, RB, WR, TE, WR/TE, two (2) WR/RB, K, three (3) LB/DB spots, 1 DL. One (1) point per 15 yds rushing/receiving; one (1) point per 35 yd returning, Six (6) points TD, One (1) point per tackle, 0.25 points per assist tackle, two (2) point per sack, three (3) each for picks, FF, or FR, one (1) point per PD

QB – Matt Ryan, Mathew Stafford

RB – Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Shane Vereen, Steven Ridley, Marcus Lattimore, Andre Ellington, Bernard Pierce, Chris Ivory, Latavius Murray, Jonathan Stewart

WR – Demaryrius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton

TE – Jason Witten, Ladarius Green, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph

DL – JJ Watt

LB – Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner

I have a pretty stacked roster but I’m at a loss on prioritizing the last couple of keepers. My thoughts on the obvious keepers are: Ryan, Stafford, AP, Lynch, Vereen, Ellington, Lattimore, Ridley, Thomas, Gordon, Cobb, TY Hilton, Watt

This leaves me with having to choose two tight ends, or Kuechly and one of those TE’s.  With the importance of game changing tight ends being the edge in FF, where do I look for upside in this situation?

You’re right, that roster is pretty stacked and you’re spot on with your tight end assessment. But I’d be inclined to look at your running backs again. Let’s dive in:

QB – Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are about the same tier in terms of dynasty rankings. You can only play one a week but with injuries always a concern, keeping both is the safe play. So you’ve got 13 spots left.

RB – Let’s get the two obvious out-of-the-way: Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are staying. Both are approaching the expiration date for running backs but are still top ten options. You off-set the age issue with those two by keeping dynasty prospects Marcus Lattimore (22) and Andre Ellington (25). Both will play a big role in their offenses next year and their potential is too great to let go now.

However, I’d seriously consider releasing Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. Ridley has been a constant in Coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse due to his fumble issues. Furthermore, New England has passed on 57% of their plays the last two years, limiting Ridley’s rushing opportunities. Which brings us to Vereen. If you were in a PPR league, Vereen would be a no-brainer. But if we’re just going off yardage, Vereen is no better than any of the four stellar receivers you have. Plus, Patriot running backs don’t seem to last with Vereen the most tenured at three years. Now you’re at nine spots left and I’m more interested in some of your guys on defense but more on that in a second.

WR – I think it’s fair to keep all four of Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon and T.Y. Hilton. All four are their teams #1 target (or soon will be), all are just not PPR machines (which does you no good) but get big chunks of yardage. This one’s easy and takes you down to five spots.

TE – Jason Witten is the obvious choice but what about after that? You can only start two, at most, so I think keeping four is a waste. Furthermore, that second spot is a flex position with a wide receiver and I don’t think any of the three remaining tight ends will be better than any of your receivers. So we have to look for upside. Jason Witten isn’t getting any younger at 32 so youth is a priority. That’s why I eliminate Dennis Pitta. Pitta will be 29 entering 2014 and is a free agent which brings us Ladarius Green and Kyle Rudolph. Both will be 24 entering 2014 and offer huge upside. Rudolph has been woefully underused and hasn’t had a decent quarterback to catch balls from. With the addition of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator and, presumably, a quarterback in the draft, Rudolph will be in the best position of his career to be successful. However, if forced to pick one, I’m going with Ladarius Green. Green is the heir apparent to Antonio Gates in San Diego and has, possibly, the most talent of this entire group. As a rookie last year, Green averaged over 22 YPC. If Gates’ career with Philip Rivers provides any clues, Green (who is taller and faster), will have a few 1,000 yard and 10+ seasons. Witten and Green bring you to three left (by design).

DL – J.J. Watt. No further commentary required.

LB – You have two of the top five linebackers in Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner. Both are under 25 and play the middle linebacker position for very good defenses. Since you’re limited by the number of running backs and/or tight ends you can play and you need three linebackers / defensive backs, having Kuechly and Wagner on your team should give you an advantage at the position every week in your league. This gets you to the 15 you need.

There you have it. Imagine a lineup of Ryan/Stafford, AP, Lynch, Thomas, Gordon, Cobb, Witten and a defense that includes Watt, Kuechly, and Wagner? With dynasty prospects Lattimore, Ellington, and Green. I’m a fan.

Daily Dynasty Update – Super Bowl Edition

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Updated Dynasty Quarterback Rankings – February 2014

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Click here for the latest dynasty quarterback rankings.

  • Top five is unchanged with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford.
  • Eagles quarterback Nick Foles continues to climb, this month to eight. You wouldn’t think Foles stock could go any higher. However, it’s important to remember that Foles was not a Chip Kelly product so it’s not entirely unreasonable to think Kelly will want someone else down the road. But for now, Foles value will never be higher.
  • Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III continues his slide to #11. He’s officially in ‘buy low’ territory and should benefit from a health off-season and a new scheme that’s more pass friendly. 
  • On the other side, Redskins backup Kirk Cousins has moved up to 28th on the heels of RG3’s poor season but I’m not sure why. He had a 52% completion percentage in 2013 and a 4:7 TD:INT ratio. It appears cousins is still living off his rookie season. You shouldn’t though. 

Daily Dynasty Update – February 1st

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  • Fresh off the news that the Texans will most likely take a quarterback with the first pick, Jacksonville owner Shad Khan plans on taking a quarterback himself. Maybe two. If Khan (and the Texans) aren’t bluffing, Jadeveon Clowney’s stock could continue to slide. It also means a team has a wide open shot at trading up to the Rams at #2 to draft him. Stay tuned.
  • The tense relationship between the 49ers and running back LaMichael James appears to be coming to a head. James himself tweeted that ‘he’d rather be let go.’ It’s not a good sign for James as he never got past third string in the 49ers power running attack. He’d also have to deal with Marcus Lattimore’s impending debut.
  • Packers tight end Jermichael Finley should be cleared for contact in 3-4 weeks. It’s good news for Finley that he’s almost back in action. His destination in free agency will be another story. But for now, it looks like Finley is a hold.

Your Dynasty Question Answered, Part II

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boldenWe have another question from the audience. Nick asks about his roster and when cut time rolls around:
I am in a 12 man, PPR Dynasty League – and will need to cut my roster down to 17 players over the summer. I’ve begun thinking about who I might cut and was hoping to get your advice. By the time our rookie draft rolls around in August, my roster must be 17 players or less, including at least 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K, and 1DEF.
My team is listed below.
Wilson, Russell SEA QB
Bolden, Brandon NEP RB
Davis, Knile KCC RB
Ellington, Andre ARI RB
Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB
Miller, Lamar MIA RB
Pierce, Bernard BAL RB
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
Wilson, David NYG RB
Blackmon, Justin JAC WR
Dobson, Aaron NEP WR
Hartline, Brian MIA WR
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR
Johnson, Calvin DET WR
Moore, Denarius OAK WR
Randle, Rueben NYG WR
Cameron, Jordan CLE TE
Green, Ladarius SDC TE
Hauschka, Steven SEA PK
Rams, St. Louis STL Def
Titans, Tennessee TEN Def

Looks like a solid team so far, especially for a 12-team league. I’d kill to have guys like Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordan Cameron on the same team. Let’s see who needs to go to get from 22 down to 17.

  • First things first – the defenses. To me, this one is pretty easy. While both the Rams and Titans were middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed, the Rams were third in the league in sacks and led the league in forced fumbles. They have a good young corps with end Robert Quinn, linebacker Alec Ogletree and could draft another with one of their two first round picks. To top it off, they hired Gregg Williams, and his super aggressive scheme, to run the defense. Meanwhile, the Titans have a new coach, new defensive coordinator, new scheme and will have several new players. Cutting the Titans will get you down to 21.
  • The first skill position player I’d cut is running back Knile Davis of the Chiefs. Heading in to the season, Davis’ only value was as the primary backup to Jamaal Charles. Even in that position, he managed only 70 carries on the season and a 3.5 YPC. He also only caught 11 balls for 75 yards. Davis just didn’t flash anything that indicates he’ll be a dynasty contributor or starter in the NFL. He also had a reputation as a fumbler in college at Arkansas. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs draft or bring in a free agent to provide more spark behind Charles. The fact that you don’t already own Charles makes it even easier to let him go. This gets you down to 20.
  • The next cut I’d make is Brandon Bolden for New England. Bolden only saw action in 2013 when Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount couldn’t hold on to the ball. However, he didn’t show enough to make coach Bill Belicheck keep him in  there. Should Blount leave in the off-season, Bolden will still be only the backup in an offense not known for its commitment to the run. Besides Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (when healthy) there’s just no consistent options there. Running backs have a notoriously short shelf life and even more so in New England. In fact, the remaining New England backs have only been there since 2011 with Bolden due to hit free agency in 2015. Bolden is the least reliable option at this point and cutting him should get you to 19.
  • This is where it starts getting difficult because you’re making decisions on guys that are starting compared to those that aren’t but have the potential. For me, the next cut would be Lamar Miller of the Dolphins. Aside from playing in a complete circus, the Miami offense just wasn’t good and doesn’t project to be anytime soon. Miller himself took a step back from his rookie year in 2012, where he averaged 4.9 YPC to averaging a very average 4.0 YPC. Furthermore, according to any metric used by Pro Football Outsiders offensive line rankings, the Miami line just wasn’t good. Given, they had to replace two starters due to the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin incident, those are still two spots they’re going to have to replace this off-season. To me, we’ve seen what Miller is and it’s not very good. I would take the potential of Bernard Pierce in Gary Kubiak’s run-heavy system or even David Wilson’s explosiveness returning over Miller. This will get you down to 18.
  • Since we’ve picked on the running backs, let’s look at the other possible positions. Quarterback is a non-starter as you must keep at least one, so Russell Wilson it is. On the tight end front, you have two young, high-upside guys in Cameron and Green. Both will be ranked as TE1’s heading in to 2014 and I see no reason to cut either of them.
  • Which brings us to your strongest position: wide receiver. With proven entities like Calvin Johnson and Alshon Jeffery to high-upside guys like Justin Blackmon and Reuben Randle, you have a good mix in there. To me, it comes down to Brian Hartline or Denarius Moore. Since you’re in a PPR league, I’m going to lean towards cutting Moore. While Hartline is the second oldest of your receivers, he’s proven to be quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s safety valve and has racked up the catches in a poor offense. Furthermore, Hartline just signed a hefty extension and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, Moore has missed seven games in his three years in the league and hasn’t had more than 51 catches or 741 yards in any of those. He’ll also have competition for targets with the emergence of Andre Holmes down the stretch. Moore’s potential is greater but he has yet to cash it in. This cut gets you to 17.

There you have it. Not surprisingly, most of the cuts were at running back, the most replaceable position in dynasty and the NFL. No doubt you can use one of your first rounders on a running back. The only tough choice was whether to keep Hartline’s catches or Moore’s potential. Since this is a PPR league, I went with catches.

Don’t forget to submit your dynasty questions to dynastyfantasyfootballcentral(at)gmail.com to see them answered here!

Daily Dynasty Update – January 31st

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Daily Dynasty Update – January 30th

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  • Big news from Denver as the Broncos are not expected to re-sign running back Knowshon Moreno. Montee Ball dynasty owners need to plan accordingly. Ball came on strong down the stretch and proved he can handle the load. With at least one year in a Peyton Manning offense, Ball could flirt with RB1 status in 2014.
  • Lions running back Joique Bell claims there’s interest on both sides for a long-term deal. Bell came on strong in place of an injured Reggie Bush throughout the season with over 50 catches and over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. A deal would be good news for Bell but would significantly hinder Reggie Bush’s dynasty value going forward.
  • New Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay loves his new tight end Jordan Reed. This will only enhance Reed’s value heading in to 2014. As a sufferer of a severe concussion last year, Reed’s health needs to be monitored especially playing such a busy position.
  • A crowded backfield in Philadelphia could mean someone is on the way out, according to a Philadelphia blog. Additionally, with both Chris Polk and Bryce Brown being on the roster before Chip Kelly’s tenure started, the same blog suggests he could find one better suited to his offense in the draft or free agency. Stay tuned as this looks like it might be a fluid situation.
  • Bears defensive lineman Shea McClellin is being converted to a strong-side linebacker. Maybe this will salvage some value out of McClellin who has been a huge disappointment as a lineman his first two years.
  • Ravens running back Bernard Pierce had rotator cuff surgery and will miss the next 4-5 months. The recovery will impede his ability to get acclimated to new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s system. Pierce was one of the bigger disappointments after averaging 2.9 YPC last year after a terrific rookie season. If the Texans offense is any indicator, Pierce would play the Ben Tate role to Ray Rice’s Arian Foster – if he can stay healthy.

Your dynasty question answered!

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julius-thomas-denver-broncos-baltimore-ravens.jpg?w=600&h=425Here at DFFC, we try to answer any and all questions we get about your dynasty roster – trades, drafts and more! Be sure to email us at dynastyfantasyfootballcentral (at) gmail.com to get yours answered. Today we have a question from Shawn. Shawn asks,

I have to keep four of the following: Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Aaron Rodgers, Julius Thomas, and Giovani Bernard. Is it dumb to keep Rodgers and all 3 WR? Keeper league (keep 4), 10 teams. Non-PPR with 6 points for any kind of TD. Starting roster is 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE/WR, 1 TE, DEF, K.

First off, how you managed to get all those guys is incredible and in a 10-league team no less. Kudos to you.

Secondly, I don’t think that’s dumb considering your starting roster requirements. However, it wouldn’t be my first choice. Let’s break this down:

  • Giovani Bernard will be a good running back but the position is one of extreme turnover. Additionally, with your league being a non-PPR, Bernard’s best asset (pass catching) is neutered. Not keeping him is an easy call.
  • Next, let’s look at the three receiver set you accumulated. Every dynasty ranking will have Bryant, Gordon, and Thomas as top five wide receivers. Using any two of those three will give you an advantage over every other team in your league. All three are young (26 or younger) and are the focal points of their respective offenses. Bryant and Thomas play with elite quarterbacks and Gordon did  amazing things with some of the least production at the position in the entire league. Unless someone managed to get Calvin Johnson and AJ Green together, you’ll always have the advantage. Furthermore, by process of elimination, that third receiver will be better than any flex option a team may have after filling their own WR and TE requirements. Those three simply can’t beat.
  • Which brings us to decision time: Aaron Rodgers or Julius Thomas. For man years, Aaron Rodgers has been the top quarterback in dynasty leagues. However, with the emergence of Eddie Lacy after Rodgers’ collar bone injury, it’s fair to wonder if the Packers might shift more towards the run. They will never be a run-first team but might want to utilize Lacy in order to lessen the load on Rodgers. For dynasty owners, this means less production than they’re used to from the Packers quarterback. Meanwhile, Julius Thomas could make a case for the 3rd best tight end in dynasty leagues. He plays on a top-rated offense with an elite quarterback with one of the receivers he shares targets with (Eric Decker) possibly leaving via free agency. Also consider the depth at each position. The differences in the best quarterback and the 10th (approximately 150 points in my own league) compared to the differences between the best tight end and 10th tight end (nearly 200 points) show that it would be a lot easier finding a replacement for Rodgers over Thomas especially considering your league only starts one quarterback.

So there you have it. While you certainly can’t go wrong with your original strategy of Rodgers, Bryant, Thomas, and Gordon, you might also consider keeping Julius Thomas. Hope this helps and keep the questions coming!

Daily Dynasty Update – January 29th

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