Monthly Archives: July 2013

Dynasty Defensive Linemen Rankings – Top Tier

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Looking at the recently published defensive linemen rankings in dynasty fantasy football leagues, there’s a consensus at the top. Houston end JJ Watt should be at the top of any IPD list. He exploded in his second year with a league leading 20.5 sacks and, maybe an even more impressive, 16 passes defended from the line. With Wade Phillips back leading the defense, and Watt entering his age-24 season, there’s no reason to doubt Watt’s potential. Whether it’s dynasty or re-draft leagues, Watt is at the top.

Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Football Giants was JJ Watt before JJ Watt was JJ Watt. In 2011, JPP had a breakout in his second year, just like Watt, with 16.5 sacks and 7 passes defended. But the Giants defense overall regressed mightily to the 2nd worst in the league statistically. On top of that, Pierre-Paul recently completed back surgery which puts his status to start the season in jeopardy. Even if he were to start in Week 1, the G-Men don’t plan on taxing him in training camp and pre-season which might delay his conditioning. At least he’s only entering his age-24 season (like Watt) so there’s time for JPP to bounce back.

St. Louis Ram Robert Quinn, the consensus #3 DL in dynasty, is all about potential. Only entering his age-23 season, Quinn’s coming off a 10.5 sack season while only starting 14 games. He’s also getting a new defensive coordinator in Tim Walton who previously coached the secondary in Detroit under Jim Schwartz, who coached under current St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher. Walton led an average secondary in Detroit that did no better than 16th in opposing passing yards. Hopefully, Walton can get more out of Quinn regardless.

Dynasty Linebacker Rankings – Top Tier

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After just calculating the amalgamated linebacker rankings, it’s clear there’s a top tier of five. Luke Kuechly of Carolina is the consensus #1 no matter what rankings you’re looking at. The combination of his age (22) and the fact that he’ll be a three-down back on a pretty bad team means he should see plenty of opportunities to be right in the action for many years to come.

The next two spots are interchangeable and include San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman and St. Louis’ James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis is another three-down back playing the middle. He seemingly had his hands on everything – four passes defended, two interceptions and 117 solo tackles to go with 25 assists. The guy is a beast and is only ranked lower than Kuechly because of his age (26). The same could be said of Bowman who actually had more total tackles than Laurinaitis (148-142), more sacks (2.0-0.5), more passes defended (6-4). He’s also a year younger (25-26). If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick one, I’d go with Bowman.

The next two include Seattle’s Bobby Wagner, with a similar resume than Laurinaitis and Bowman but is just 23.

Next is the first outside linebacker of the group, Lavonte David. The second year linebacker from Tampa Bay is just 23 and has the potential to rack up sacks with 19 tackles for a loss in his rookie season.

Bottom line is you can’t go wrong if one of these guys is your lead LB for the next five years.

The Matthew Stafford Contract Extension

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Contract extensions don’t usually mean much to fantasy football re-drafters but they do when Matthew Stafford is your franchise quarterback in a dynasty league. Stafford just signed a contract extension through 2017. While this news is great for Stafford’s dynasty value it’s especially great for Calvin Johnson’s, who’s signed through 2019. To have stability in the quarterback position is extremely important and should keep CJ at the top of dynasty big boards. Hopefully Stafford can keep getting 200 targets to Johnson for many years to come. Needless to say it also has positive value for other Lions like Ryan Broyles, who has the potential to be a very good #2 WR in the Lions offense for many years to come. Now would especially be a good time to buy low since he’s recovering from ACL surgery. It also solidifies Brandon Pettigrew as a top-15 tight end option for at least 2-3 years and makes Reggie Bush a solid top-20 option at running back for at least this year.

Who’s the third best tight end in dynasty fantasy football?

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Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are the two best tight ends in football. Fantasy football, real football, dynasty football, Madden football.

After those two, however, is a considerable debate. If you average together rankings from Pro Football Focus and Dynasty Warehouse you see a group of four players that are clearly ranked ahead of the pack: Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta (click here to see the whole list!). Let’s look at a couple different angles:

  • Age – Since you’re in a dynasty league there is a premium on age. Rudolph (24) would win that battle as he has four years on the next tight end in the group, Dennis Pitta (28), followed by VD (29) and Witten (31). However, youth also means inexperience and there is no guarantee that Rudolph will fulfill the lofty expectations he has. Personally, I need to see results before I’m convinced. Rudolph’s line of 53/493/9 is comparable to Rob Gronkowski (55/790/11). The only difference is Gronk did it in five fewer games. The lack of production may or may not be a result of Christian Ponder’s poor play but the bottom line is Ponder is back for another year which means Rudolph’s potential is limited.
  • Targets – Dennis Pitta broke out last year (as evidenced by me taking him in round 20 or later) to the tune of 61/669/11. Offseason reports indicate it’ll only get better. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 112 (!) targets, Joe Flacco is going to have to spread the ball around. Even, if you were to divvy up the targets evenly among the 11 players that caught a pass from Flacco in 2012, Pitta’s in line for 10 more targets and 6-7 more catches this year. However, that’s assuming defenses don’t pay more attention to Pitta which  they most certainly will. Additionally, without another receiver to take the heat off the middle of the field like Boldin did so well, linebackers are going to zero in on Pitta. I go back to my thoughts about Rudolph and want to see more before I’m convinced.
  • QB Upgrade – While Kyle Rudolph is still a year or two away from an upgrade,  Vernon Davis finally got one last year in Colin Kaepernick. Now, you could argue that VD performed well despite the lack of arm strength from Alex Smith. In fact, he was awesome: 2009-78/965/13; 2010-56/914/7; 2011-67/792/6. However, you also see a downward trend that coincides with Michael Crabtree’s rise: 2009-48/625/2; 2010-55/741/6; 2011-72/874/4. This all led to a 2012 that saw VD with 41 catches on 61 targets compared to Crabtree’s 85 catches on 126 targets. Things looked dire (fantasy-wise) for VD with the trade of Anquan Boldin but with Crabtree’s injury, we’re still back where we were last year. As a 49er fan, I hope the trend doesn’t continue but unless they make a concerted effort to get Davis the ball,  I just don’t see him getting back to 2009-2010 level.
  • Verdict – If I had to pick one out of this group to go with it’d be Jason Witten. Since his breakout, age-25-30 seasons started in 2007, he’s averaged 92/1018/5. Looking ahead, I think a fair comparison is Tony Gonzales (76/945/6 in his 25-30 years old seasons) , who’s still chugging along at age 37. Since turning 31, Gonzales has averaged ONLY 84/877/7. Hypothetically, this gives Witten five years of 84/877/7. And the fact that Tony Romo and his gun-slinging ways aren’t going anywhere, I think you the stability needed to continue a great career.